absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Quinnipiac early voting poll

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The margin of error is like 6 percent. So maybe she's only winning by 10 and not 22. Still though!

Quinnipiac NC Poll (10/27-11/1)
https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/ps/snc11022016_demos_Sbyf37m.pdf/
Total 602 LV samples.  Early voters 44%.
602 LV X 44% = 264.88 LV (Already voted)

265 LV = very massive samples to figure out 2 Million votes(already voted in NC)

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Florida updates are in the early morning, US East Coast time. They usually make 3 or 4

Thanks. Currently R are about 18,000 votes ahead, if that holds up to the Election Day then I can't see Trump losing it. D won it by 177,000 in 2012 apparently so a big difference.

Dems won the early in-person vote by that much but lost the VBM by about 80K so Obama had a 90K or so lead in Party ID going into E-Day. He won FL by 64K

Yep- and if 100k Dixiecrats switch registration, we could lose the EV-ID by 50k and still win.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Democrats have closed the gap again in Florida yesterday and the difference is now less than 2k from 12k

But they won it 43-40 in 2012...

With Dixiecrats in the mix. Many of them have switched reg since 2012.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Democrats have closed the gap again in Florida yesterday and the difference is now less than 2k from 12k

But they won it 43-40 in 2012...

With Dixiecrats in the mix. Many of them have switched reg since 2012.

you don't know that for a fact

OK, explain to me why so many (overwhelmingly white) Dems have switched reg in the interim. Iĺl wait.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

The new Freiwal.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

What about Maine?

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

I wouldn't read much into the Trump campaign's behavior.  They can't be trusted to behave logically.

I mean even in 2012, when Romney started pushing for these blue states, most people assumed he was making a hail mary attempt. It turns out he really believed he was winning, and that those states were the real battlegrounds.  I have no doubts that Trump is thinking the same way right now.

That was the election with few undecided voters and they all swung for Obama.

This election has a huge number of undecideds and I think "undecided" this late is a codeword for shy Trump.

This election has a huge number of undecideds and I think "undecided" this late is a codeword for shy Clinton.

See, I can bullsh[Inks] too...

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

I wouldn't read much into the Trump campaign's behavior.  They can't be trusted to behave logically.

I mean even in 2012, when Romney started pushing for these blue states, most people assumed he was making a hail mary attempt. It turns out he really believed he was winning, and that those states were the real battlegrounds.  I have no doubts that Trump is thinking the same way right now.

That was the election with few undecided voters and they all swung for Obama.

This election has a huge number of undecideds and I think "undecided" this late is a codeword for shy Trump.

This election has a huge number of undecideds and I think "undecided" this late is a codeword for shy Clinton.

See, I can bullsh[Inks] too...

No such thing as shy Clinton.

Wait 3 days and see for yourself.

"Hmm, I hate Trump and I've gotta vote against him, but I can hardly admit I'm voting for that shill... hmm... Undecided."

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

This has been consistently explained to you many times, yet you keep repeated yourself.

Polling has consistently shown that registered Democrats are more unified than Republicans this cycle (except in a select few states that contain dixiecrats, though that effect should be far less this year).   While there has been some disunity on the Democratic side, Sanders supporters are likely to say they are independents.

Registered independents (as opposed to self identified independents, which are R leaning) seem to be very D leaning in the early vote, which is why the vast majority of polling shows Clinton outperforming the partisan breakdown among early voters.

The crosstabs to that CNN poll were very weird, showing Trump leading in Clark county, and polling in Nevada has a solid history of underestimating Democrats.

To add to this, independent ID != independent registration. Many Hispanics probably ID as Dem while reg as Indie, for instance.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

And why do you assume that unaffiliated voters will break for Trump, and that there won't be a decent number of R voters who don't vote for Trump? You can cherry-pick, and make assumptions which are likely erroneous until the cows come home (oops, sorry, I forgot that this phrase apparently isn't PC enough.) The data strongly suggests that Hillary is heavily favored in Nevada, and Trump winning it is less likely than Hillary winning it by double digits.

Every poll in Nevada this past month have had more D breaking for Trump than R breaking for Hillary. Every poll in Nevada had him winning I.

If he gets 3% more crossover votes than Hillary, and a 10% margin in I, the race is tied.

If you believe there is no crossover, and a split in I, yes it is over. But polls predicted that democratic voters will outnumber republican voters, but in the end Trump will get the more votes. It's a simple concept but hard for many to understand.

Party ID != Party Reg. That simple.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

For realz?

Frida GhitisVerified account
‏@FridaGhitis
Político writer tells MSNBC that Trump has stopped polling - because he refuses to pay his pollster. May explain campaigning in odd places.

His pollster refused to show him up 20 in Florida, so he decided that his work was unsatisfactory. You know the drill with Trump.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

The cherrypicking is unreal.

Absentee voting in Michigan has always heavily favored Republicans and Democrats win on the election day vote.

Keeep ignoring the fact that Black voters in Detroit / FL / NC and other places aren't coming out.
A 33% decline compared to 2012 doesn't happen by accident, while the rest of the state has seen increases.

As previously noted, this could be attributable to the hemorrhaging of population within the city of Detroit. However, those numbers could be offset by likely high turnout among the Detroit Metro's large Arab population.

Plus keep in mind that Arabs are historically a swing demographic. I have a hard time seeing many Arabs, particularly Muslim Arabs, voting for Trump.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

But in 2012 it was according to exit polls:
http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/FL/president/

White    67%
Black    13%
Latino   17%


Does latino vote usually increase during ED?
Or does exit-polls underestimate whites?

This seems to have pushed "others". Many are likely black or Hispanics, and are included in reg data but not exit polls from the looks of it.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

^^^^^

It is a lot of White Democrats (I thought Dems were more non-white), which is pretty good news for Trump, since his doing relatively good among White Democrats (or rather Clinton is doing terribly), if Upshot/Sienna poll is not wrong.

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What of Hispanic Republicans?

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Hillsborough County:

DEM: 165,329
GOP: 140,599
NPA: 87,155

Dems have opened up close to a 25K vote lead there and added about 2600 to their margin. Hillsborough is at 72.3% of its 2012 turnout.

Pinellas County:

GOP: 116,087
DEM: 115,244
NPA: 67,992

Dems have narrowed the GOP advantage to about 850. Pinellas is at 65.2% of its 2012 turnout.

Broward County:

Almost 36K voted in Broward today. Dems added 14.6K to their margin. Broward has hit 74.3% of its overall 2012 turnout.

Lee County (GOP county):

Republicans expanded their advantage by 1377

Collier County (GOP county):

Republicans expanded their advantage by 1142

Hmmm... I always thought Pinellas was to the left of Hillsborough. Has this changed recently?

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith 
Florida's Women : Men Gender Ratios of Early Votes Cast:
Overall: 1.3:1
Ds: 1.6:1
Rs: 1.1:1
NPAs: 1.1:1

If Trump is supposed to be turning out Trump Dems... he is failing miserably from the looks of it.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

It's the turnout difference that matters in this case anyways.

Yeah, but if UFA is the same as 2012, Trump will probably win.

I mean, it was more Democratic in 2012, which means that Romney won UFA by pretty big margins. So if UFA didn't change that much, NC is tie.

Did UFA's break for Romney in 2012?

It was about 10% points more registered Dems than registered Reps. So either Romney won UFA or he got a big share of Dems (or both).

Dixiecrats?

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

This graph looks like he's winning whites by less than 5.

Romney won whites by 20.

LOL @ this election.

So ready for it to be over.

Uuh, no. He's winning them by about 15 from how it looks

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

https://projectnewamerica.com/latest/colorado-state-play

Blacks > Hispanics in CO? That can't be right...

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

https://twitter.com/gercohen/status/795358638730858496

For everyone nervous about the collapse in Black turnout in North Carolina

2012: It is only 5% Black, but Obama carried it over Romney 69% to 29%, with 3,670 votes cast in the precinct that year.

This year through Friday, November 4 there have already been 4,354 votes cast in early and mail-in voting, a 73.1% turnout of registered voters. Analyzing it by party it's even more stark. Here's the turnout by party:

Democratic 79.7%
Republican 65.0%
Unaffiliated 69.6%*
Libertarian 59.3%

Tremendous news, but still only one precinct...

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Wow.

Florida D margin muss be >100k votes now, right?

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/795646505029877760

ouch.

Daniel Berman ‏@DanielBerman2  5m5 minutes ago
Worth noting, party ID in Ohio is determined by which primary you took part in. So GOP identification might be inflated this year by Kasich

Wow. I had no idea. My confidence in Hillary in Ohio just went up dramatically.

WOAH. Yeah I agree.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  24m24 minutes ago
My national and state pre-election turnout forecasts. Nationally, I predict more than 135 million people will vote

If this is accurate, then this will be the 2nd largest voter turnout in the world, only behind India!! WOW

Makes sense, since we're the second largest democracy

135M, though... jeez.