absentee/early vote thread, part 2 (user search)
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  absentee/early vote thread, part 2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: absentee/early vote thread, part 2  (Read 112131 times)
alomas
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« on: November 02, 2016, 12:14:12 PM »
Hispanics in Florida aren't voting 70-30, rather by 25 points which is a big difference.
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alomas
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2016, 12:34:48 PM »
Quote from: Virginia on November 02, 2016, 12:18:10 PM
Even Latino Decisions shows a 40-ish point margin for Clinton. What is the basis for your claim?
http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/10/clinton-dominating-trump-among-florida-hispanics-in-new-poll-106082

This.
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alomas
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2016, 05:02:31 PM »
I think it's fair to say NC is a dead heat right now, it could go either way really.
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alomas
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2016, 05:07:21 PM »
538 has her 0.2 up in polls-only. Hardly a big advantage, black turnout is down as well.
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alomas
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2016, 07:32:55 PM »
Despite polls suggesting dead heat, Nevada is trending Clinton's way.

So Dems take the lead in Florida when it will be updated?
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alomas
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2016, 07:38:59 PM »
Quote from: dspNY on November 02, 2016, 07:34:09 PM
Florida updates are in the early morning, US East Coast time. They usually make 3 or 4
Thanks. Currently R are about 18,000 votes ahead, if that holds up to the Election Day then I can't see Trump losing it. D won it by 177,000 in 2012 apparently so a big difference.
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alomas
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2016, 07:52:20 PM »
http://www.politico.com/story/2012/11/early-voting-results-2012-083176

I read 43-40 for Democrats, that's around 130K.
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alomas
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2016, 07:21:42 AM »
Florida has updated his totals. Nearly 5 million people have cast their votes are R are still ahead Wink
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alomas
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2016, 08:49:06 AM »
Quote from: BoAtlantis on November 03, 2016, 08:39:39 AM
If the remaining 5 days of early vote in the county match the final 5 days in 2012, the end total would be 80,440, a 16% increase over 2012. The total will probably top that, as the daily totals have been significantly stronger than 2012 in general."
Florida's EV totals have already topped 2012 totals so this Democratic county is not doing so well then.
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alomas
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2016, 05:05:20 PM »
Quote from: fldemfunds on November 03, 2016, 05:03:29 PM
Florida - C+5 or more. It's going to be called early.
Today is 3 Nov nor 20 Oct.
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alomas
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2016, 05:30:47 PM »
Wisconsin has only 7% African-Americans, I consider it leaning-Clinton and she should carry it.

Detroit has issued 20% (and maybe more) absentee ballots less. It can be put down to the drop in the city population.
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alomas
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« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2016, 08:24:11 PM »
Florida, North Carolina - dead heats, Colorado - advantage Clinton
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alomas
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« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2016, 07:27:50 AM »
Quote from: SunSt0rm on November 04, 2016, 06:43:57 AM
Democrats have closed the gap again in Florida yesterday and the difference is now less than 2k from 12k
But they won it 43-40 in 2012...
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alomas
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« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2016, 11:14:07 AM »
Quote from: Kalimantan on November 04, 2016, 11:06:57 AM
North Carolina
- Blacks are 28% in 2012 to about 23% today.
Under 22% (21.89%) according to the latest update on official site.
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alomas
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« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2016, 03:10:46 PM »
Don't forget that Republican counties are also experiencing big gains. Not only Miami-Dade, Volusia, Broward and Palm Beach.
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alomas
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« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2016, 03:17:16 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 04, 2016, 03:14:04 PM
Yes, but the big D counties in Florida have more people than the big R counties.  So if they all have large gains, it favors the Democats.
I agree but if Republicans are running better in early voting than in 2012 and the total number of cast ballots is better then they must do better job in their counties as well. They may be smaller but there are more such counties.
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alomas
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« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2016, 07:55:14 PM »
I'm sure Clinton will win North Carolina by 6 points haha.
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alomas
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« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2016, 08:08:57 AM »
Republicans up 17 among whites! Cheesy And bear in mind CNN is by no means pro-Trump.
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alomas
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« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2016, 08:23:40 AM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on November 05, 2016, 08:13:17 AM
Romney won whites by 20 nationwide and lost to Obama.
It is only early voting though Smiley
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alomas
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« Reply #19 on: November 05, 2016, 08:34:34 AM »
Republicans are doing better on Election Day. 17 points is only three points behind Romney's gap when the Florida was under 1 point.
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alomas
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« Reply #20 on: November 05, 2016, 08:44:08 AM »
Right! I looked at the wrong numbers. It's going to be close then, I hope whites have a better share of the electorate than 67%, around 70% or so.
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alomas
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« Reply #21 on: November 05, 2016, 08:46:39 AM »
Quote from: Arch on November 05, 2016, 08:45:09 AM
70% was their share in 2012, and it's not happening this year. More Latinos have voted already than in the entire 2012 cycle. It's a huge Latino turnout election.
67% -> http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/FL/president/#exit-polls
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alomas
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« Reply #22 on: November 05, 2016, 10:18:57 AM »
CNN poll showed Trump carrying Indies 2-1 (58-29) but that's almost impossible. Romney carried it 50-43 so he would need to outperform him by let's say 20 points. I don't believe it's possible.
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alomas
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« Reply #23 on: November 05, 2016, 10:50:07 AM »
Now he needs Pennsylvania or Michigan. The good thing is if he wins PA he can afford to lose NC, win NH and ME-02, although that sounds difficult of course.

Not a lot of polls today Sad
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alomas
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« Reply #24 on: November 05, 2016, 11:58:17 AM »
CD-02? Dead heat I'd say but CNN made it lean Trump for some reason.
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