absentee/early vote thread, part 2

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Another 'good' day for the GOP in Washoe, but they really need to eliminate that entire deficit by election day to stand any chance.


Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 3m3 minutes ago

Republicans with another solid win in Washoe. 350 votes. Dem lead down to about 1,000 there.
Dem - 4,254
Republican - 4,609
TOTAL - 11,873

Well early voting ends tomorrow.  I doubt they win by 1,000.

Yep, and then there's that near 60k firewall already built up.

Can someone explain something to me?  I checked 2012 results in Washoe, there were over 180,000 votes cast with Obama winning by 4%.

Were saying most of the vote in Nevada will have already been cast by ED. but there are only 11,000 votes cast so far in Washoe.....what am i missing?

[Sigh144]

Another 'good' day for the GOP in Washoe, but they really need to eliminate that entire deficit by election day to stand any chance.


Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 3m3 minutes ago

Republicans with another solid win in Washoe. 350 votes. Dem lead down to about 1,000 there.
Dem - 4,254
Republican - 4,609
TOTAL - 11,873

Well early voting ends tomorrow.  I doubt they win by 1,000.

Yep, and then there's that near 60k firewall already built up.

Can someone explain something to me?  I checked 2012 results in Washoe, there were over 180,000 votes cast with Obama winning by 4%.

Were saying most of the vote in Nevada will have already been cast by ED. but there are only 11,000 votes cast so far in Washoe.....what am i missing?

That was 11k votes in the day, not overall

Gotcha, I figured. Thanks.

Where can i find the up to date total votes cast by county results? NV SoS site?

By the way, love this thread, been reading it for about 2-3 weeks or so....check it every morning and throughout the day haha..........

[Sigh144]

Been following him too.

Ready for this election to be over. So disappointed in my country right now.

Disappointed in some friends and family too.

[Sigh144]

I am still extremely worried about NC, I dont see how you can say it looks like anything other than a a Trump win or at best a lean Trump.

Florida is way too close for comfort although I'm encouraged by the rise of NPA's who are more diverse than the electorate at large.

Ohio is probably Trump no?

Same for Iowa.............

If Florida surprises and goes to Trump hes right there knocking on the door to 270.

Granted, Nevada looks done. But thats not enough. She would still need NH and Colorado, while I dont foresee Trump carrying NH, the polls say its a toss up.

Then theres Michigan which I doubt is really in play but add it all up and it is way too close for comfort for me.

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One thing that concerns me somewhat is this. We have been talking about latinos voting like crazy against Trump and how this will lead to victories in Nevada and Colorado (at least). But why then have we had several polls indicating the most latinamerican of all states - New Mexico - being surprisingly close. Most of us had thought that New Mexico wasn't even close to being a swing state anymore.

Gary Johnson is a favorite son there.

Used to be Governor.

I doubt it's actually close.

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Does anyone have racial breakdown of NPA's in FL so far in early vote for just Hillsborough county?

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Dave Wasserman Verified account
‏@Redistrict

Lots of evidence Latinos' strength for Clinton being understated by polls, w/ big potential implications in AZ/CO/FL/NV.

Any news on Iowa? EV was looking decent, not as good as O and likely headed for a close call........last i heard 42k Dem lead, which comparing to 2012 would be a razor thin election night result.

LAtest poll has Trump by 7....?

[Sigh144]

This graph looks like he's winning whites by less than 5.

Romney won whites by 20.

LOL @ this election.

So ready for it to be over.

[Sigh144]

This graph looks like he's winning whites by less than 5.

Romney won whites by 20.

LOL @ this election.

So ready for it to be over.

Uuh, no. He's winning them by about 15 from how it looks

Thats what I figured by this graph shows Whites overall around 5 points (unless im misreading it), regardless I expect Trump to win whites by at least around Romney margin.....

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Is there any data on what the racial makeup of Florida ED voters was in 2012?

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Can someone please post updated numbers for Iowa and Colorado?

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I really despise any and every REpublican in this country.

You vote for REpublicans youre cosigning this disgusting voter supression effort.

Absolutley and utterly 100% unAmerican.

I'm at a loss for words at how angered I am by this.

[Sigh144]

Dem advantage in Duval up over 3,000 votes!

DEM 124,058
REP 121,027
OTH 47,472

Great news.

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Broward's gonna railroad this thing.

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We might look back on Wednesday morning (or maybe even Tuesday night) and determine that Trump never really had a chance in Florida.

Thjeyre already just shy of 41k as of 640pm............polls close at 7pm but theyll be voting well after 7 considering the lines.

No way only another 1000 people get to vote in all of Broward tonight.........im in broward, that just seems unrealistic.

Lets go 45k!

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We'll see if it shakes out in the data but Marc Caputo keeps on talking to Cuban Republicans who defected to Clinton and sees a significant Clinton/Rubio vote in Miami

I'm in south florida, just north of miami, grew up in miami though, most of my friends are cubans.

ALL of my friends parents that i have spoken to hate  Democrats.............nearly all of them voted Clinton/Rubio.

I know its a small sample size lol, but you gotta understand just how much older cubans hate Dems....to hear them say theyre voting for one is pretty stunning.

[Sigh144]

Turnout in Miami-Dade over 50K.

Holy s***, and the polling places will stay open until 9

Only one location in Dade will stay open till 9.....majority black area though. Good news.

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Hillary Clinton needs to take a page out of Trump's book when she wins and use the power of the presidency to teach REpublicans a lesson.

This voter supression stuff must not be allowed to continue.........it's unAmerican

Republicans truly are the scum of the Earth.

[Sigh144]

Those same polls assume AA's make up the same amount of the vote as they did in 2012. This is why Kay Hagan isn't a senator anymore

The NYT/Siena poll has African American vote share in North Carolina down 2 points (23 to 21) and their model still has Clinton winning the state by 1.

It will be less than even that, Trump will carry NC by a few points especially if Romney carried it against a sitting President. NC will def go Trump for sure.

You keep comparing Trump to Romney as his baseline. It isnt.

Clinton is beating Trump among college educated whites, Romney won this group easily.

They represent a much larger piece of the pie as blacks do.

The unAmerica teapig voter supression may pay off in NC and allow Trump to carry it by a slim margin.

But teapig rats' days are numbered.......the moment Hillary crosses 270 is the moment the supreme court goes liberal. And all your unAmerican scams like voter id, voter supression etc become a 5-4 loss in the supreme court when they're challenged.