absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

tuesday +2000 in clark
https://mobile.twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/793950659410132995

nothing stops this train.

That's +2000 compared to yesterday, but I'd rather know how it compares to that same day in 2012.

Big uptick in Florida Dem turnout today. Good to see

Great news indeed! Is this the day we finally take the lead?

I think we get close, but not quite

That's starting to get frustrating.

Again... Clinton is doing much better with NPA voters ... she appears to be out-performing sheer party ID. Let's not get too hung up on direct comparisons to 2012. They're a guide, sure, but they're also reflective of the 2012 electorate and voting patterns.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

didn't want to debate that at length...but the pollster has been ciruli associates ...afaik an A pollster on 538.

A posters can produce clunkers from time to time.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Democrats have closed the gap again in Florida yesterday and the difference is now less than 2k from 12k

But they won it 43-40 in 2012...

Assessments are suggesting that Clinton is significantly over-performing that breakdown thanks to unaligned voters breaking for HRC

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Democrats have closed the gap again in Florida yesterday and the difference is now less than 2k from 12k

But they won it 43-40 in 2012...

With Dixiecrats in the mix. Many of them have switched reg since 2012.

you don't know that for a fact

OK, explain to me why so many (overwhelmingly white) Dems have switched reg in the interim. Iĺl wait.

i don't know but you don't know as well. who knows how many democrats didn't switch their registration for ages and are voting republican? you are just guessing, skewing the news so they can fit your narrative. but that's kind of worse. landing on election night will only come harder.

Considering your scrambling, kinda seems like it's not his landing that will come hard.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Given the rules in MI, I wouldn't be thinking too much about it

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Another 'good' day for the GOP in Washoe, but they really need to eliminate that entire deficit by election day to stand any chance.


Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 3m3 minutes ago

Republicans with another solid win in Washoe. 350 votes. Dem lead down to about 1,000 there.
Dem - 4,254
Republican - 4,609
TOTAL - 11,873

Well early voting ends tomorrow.  I doubt they win by 1,000.

Yep, and then there's that near 60k firewall already built up.

Can someone explain something to me?  I checked 2012 results in Washoe, there were over 180,000 votes cast with Obama winning by 4%.

Were saying most of the vote in Nevada will have already been cast by ED. but there are only 11,000 votes cast so far in Washoe.....what am i missing?

That was 11k votes in the day, not overall

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Do we seriously need to explain the issue with MI early voting again?!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Do we seriously need to explain the issue with MI early voting again?!

Please do!

MI has extremely tight controls over absentee voting and does not have traditional early voting AT ALL.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Democrats win Pinellas County (St. Petersburg) by 250. GOP lead narrowed to 1,249 votes. If there's one major swing county I'm worried about in FL, this is it

How did Pinellas vote in 2008 and 2012?

Obama won it twice.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

i think the daily comments of cohn regarding this matter have been VERY confusing.

Cohn tried to have it both ways a lot of the time.

For sure. He hasn't done it justice at all.

I haven't liked his confidence in bitching at others, then when it comes to his own, he gets cagey AF.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Mark Preston of CNN was just saying that Republicans have a 17% percent advantage amongst whites in Florida.

Could be wrong, but that doesnt sound the best for Trump?  Thought Romney did better among whites in Florida than that?

If that's the case, then yes, that's a lethal under-performance.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

if FL is locked..... we can "survive" NC/MI defections and maybe even PA.

would laugh endless, if trump sweeps the midwest and loses all in the sunbelt.

MI isn't happening and PA isn't either.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This is the same pattern from 2012... guess who got it right?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

You are in for a very rough election night if you think Trump has states like NC in the bag.

This isn't D v R, it's D v R v UnAf and that last category is what will decide this. I'd much rather be Clinton than Trump in NC right now.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What are the chances these states being called early?

Nevada wasn't called early in 08 when Obama won by double-digits and Florida will never be called 'early' because of its centrality to the outcome and 2000 flashbacks. Having said that, of the two, I think FL has the better chance of being called early.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's a fundamental flaw with the LV screens. We saw it in 2012, and I think we're going to see it especially this year.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

CNN are painting a bright picture for Trump here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVpSksvTea8&feature=youtu.be

You've read enough to know the reality.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Republicans up 17 among whites! And bear in mind CNN is by no means pro-Trump.

Read up - that's a BAD number for Trumpykins...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Republicans up 17 among whites! And bear in mind CNN is by no means pro-Trump.

Read up - that's a BAD number for Trumpykins...

Is it a bad number for early voting, as election day voting may skews republican?

Considering how much of the vote of will be banked, the GOP would need a seriously remarkable election day outcome to make that up.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Republicans are doing better on Election Day. 17 points is only three points behind Romney's gap when the Florida was under 1 point.

No, Romney won whites by 24 in Florida...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Jon Ralston calls the state of Nevada for Hillary Clinton (and probably Catherine Cortez-Masto).

Trump would need unthinkable Election Day numbers to overcome the early vote lead that Dems hold.

At least we have Nevada taking the place of New Hampshire in das Freiwal. It will be a funky looking map.

Meh, NH will hold in the end.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So now with (most) of week 2's final day's totals in, the week 2 numbers are as follows (including absent/mailing)...
2012: D+5.6% ( 42.2/36.6/21.2 )
2016: D+5.0% ( 40.6/35.6/23.8 ) [2016 not including yesterday was only D+3.3%!]

The Democrats' margin lead is only 0.6% lower in week 2 of this week than it was in the same week in 2012. And in 2012, Obama won Nevada by 6.7%. It's going to take a lot more than a 0.6% improvement amongst Republicans to make up that difference. Would require a huge shift in the preference of the "Other" voters.

http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2501
If we include week 1 + week 2 numbers, we get the following...
2012 D/R/O: 308,828/260,066/135,622 for a D margin of +6.9% (final margin was Obama +6.7%)
2016 D/R/O: 323,466/277,417/166,532 for a D margin of +6.1%

One could argue that R's have improved over 2012, but the improvement is marginal at best. These are still very bad numbers for Trump.

That of course assumes that the O voters aren't breaking more one way than the other.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Who wins NC won't be down to D v R or AA v White - but where the unaffiliated voters go.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Ralston is like CNN who called FL for Gore in 2000, based on some shady exit polls.

And then it turned out totally different ...

(Although the Bush folks could have also faked the FL results)

Hideous analogy. This is raw votes.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

OK - this pure party breakdown assessment is a wild goose chase. Much like NC, the unaffiliateds will determine where the state is going. Considering what we broadly know about them, I'm feeling pretty good.