absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Lief 🗽]

Steve Schale:

"Not insignificant for HRC:
Non-white share of FL early voters thru yesterday: 31.3
Among NPA: 35
In other words NPA more diverse than state."

Schale just said on Maddow "We'll know pretty early on Tuesday who won Florida."

He sounded very optimistic. He said that he was truthfully getting worried over the weekend, but since them minority turnout has surged.

[Lief 🗽]

Another 'good' day for the GOP in Washoe, but they really need to eliminate that entire deficit by election day to stand any chance.


Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 3m3 minutes ago

Republicans with another solid win in Washoe. 350 votes. Dem lead down to about 1,000 there.
Dem - 4,254
Republican - 4,609
TOTAL - 11,873

Well early voting ends tomorrow.  I doubt they win by 1,000.

[Lief 🗽]

Last day of early voting by state:

Nevada: Today
Texas: Today
Arizona: Today
Wisconsin: Today
Georgia: Today
North Carolina: Saturday
Florida: Saturday or Sunday (depends on the county)
Ohio: Monday
Iowa: Monday

[Lief 🗽]

Clark turnout is crazy. expected to be over 50K now

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/794708214264668160

omfg Ralston is so schizophrenic. I need to just start paying attention to his final update of the day. Everything else just swings wildly back and forth by the hour!

[Lief 🗽]

Guys, there is a huge difference between people who REGISTER as independents and people who IDENTIFY to pollsters as independents.  In most of these states, Democrats win the former, but Republicans win the latter. Nate Cohn has tweeted about this quite a bit.

[Lief 🗽]

Wouldn't the white vote be more Republican in early voting than day of voting? Since older people are more likely to vote before election day than younger people?

[Lief 🗽]

This is why Clinton is still in Ohio: Franklin County expected to beat 2012 EV turnout

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/04/early-voting-long-lines.html

Clinton is campaigning hard in Ohio.  She was here tonight and she'll be back on Sunday.  Ohio early voting lasts through Monday too.  It's gonna be tight folks.

[Lief 🗽]

Few more late night stats. This through Thurs.

34.5% of Dem
51.2% of NPA
27.8% of GOP
Dems have ~141k advantage

What does this mean?

[Lief 🗽]

nate silver right now:

[Lief 🗽]

OK guys, how have the odds changed today?  Seems like NV is moving towards likely Clinton, while we're all super confused about all those North Carolina tweets form whatshisface.  Florida doing pretty well too I take it?  But Colorado seems like she's in big trouble?  That's the message I seem to be getting.

Nah, Republicans need better than a tie in Colorado.  Most of the young people don't mail their sh!t in until literally the last minute.

[Lief 🗽]

Aren't the CO numbers a bit odd to you as well ?

Only 1.66 million ballots have been returned so far and there are only Monday and Tuesday left to return ballots.

Final turnout in 2012 was 2.6 million.

It's pretty unlikely that there are 300K returned on Monday and Tuesday, when it was 100-150K each day now.

That suggests turnout will be much lower in CO this year, somwhere between 2-2.5 million votes (unless there's a surge of election day voters).

Mail-ins surge in the final days. Anecdotally, people here are very lazy.

Look at the 2014 numbers.  The Friday morning before election day, total turnout was 1.15 million.  Total turnout ended up at 2 million.  A whole lot of votes are about to come in this weekend and on Tuesday.  If 2014 is any indication, Democrats wait until the last minute in Colorado to drop off their ballots.

[Lief 🗽]

Uh, Ralston isn't a Democrat.  He pretty clearly does not like Hillary Clinton (even if he probably prefers her to Trump).  He's also been very negative about Harry Reid.  I think he just hates all politicians.  I don't get the impression that he cares very much about the fortunes of Heck versus Cortez Masto.

[Lief 🗽]

NC isn't ideal, but look at Nate Cohn's Upshot tracking. The demographics of the early vote ended up being basically what they predicted, and that was in a poll that showed Clinton winning the state by six points.

[Lief 🗽]

NC isn't ideal, but look at Nate Cohn's Upshot tracking. The demographics of the early vote ended up being basically what they predicted, and that was in a poll that showed Clinton winning the state by six points.

If Hillary wins the state in the 6% range even with lower African-American turnout, then North Carolina is Virginia 2.0 and it will only get worse for Republicans in the state as time moves forward.

(VP nominee Deborah Ross 2024)

I mean, if Deborah Ross wins this year and then survives a 2022 midterm, might as well just let her be the nominee lol

[Lief 🗽]

Wait, are the Florida county BOE websites updating live each time a new vote comes in?? I thought they just update at the end of the day.

[Lief 🗽]

Daniel A. Smith wrote something up on cannibalizing the vote in FL:

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/11/06/on-cannibalizing-the-vote-in-florida-heres-some-data-natesilver538-nate_cohn-to-work-into-your-models/

Smith sounds pretty confident that Clinton is winning Florida at the moment.

[Lief 🗽]

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