absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Brittain33]

If the remaining 5 days of early vote in the county match the final 5 days in 2012, the end total would be 80,440, a 16% increase over 2012. The total will probably top that, as the daily totals have been significantly stronger than 2012 in general."

Florida's EV totals have already topped 2012 totals so this Democratic county is not doing so well then.

The quoted text refers to Ohio—comparing to Florida results is apples and oranges.

[Brittain33]

- In Republican Butler County, Democrats up 68%, Republicans only up 28%
- In Republican Delaware County, Democrats up 92%, vs Republicans up 50%

Those are hugely problematic for Trump. The Cuyahoga number is still problematic for Clinton but how much of that is actually Democrats who took a Repub ballot in the primary to vote for Kasich/against Trump

But there are how many Democrats in Butler County? 11?

[Brittain33]

Democrats have closed the gap again in Florida yesterday and the difference is now less than 2k from 12k

But they won it 43-40 in 2012...

With Dixiecrats in the mix. Many of them have switched reg since 2012.

you don't know that for a fact

Actually, we do. Schale found 50,000 Republican early voters in 2016 who were registered as Democrats in 2012.

[Brittain33]

Republicans up 17 among whites! And bear in mind CNN is by no means pro-Trump.

Romney won whites by 20 nationwide and lost to Obama.

[Brittain33]

Romney won whites by 20 nationwide and lost to Obama.

It is only early voting though

Ok, so you're banking on very large turnout on Election Day of white voters who vote more pro-Trump than the white voters (disproportionately elderly) who have shown up in large numbers so far.

I'm sorry, but that's a recipe for disappointment.

[Brittain33]

Republicans are doing better on Election Day.

The math isn't there. Also, Election Day hasn't happened.

[Brittain33]

Also the candidates are roughly comparable

Hillary Clinton is a major party candidate; Austria's major parties have been eclipsed by splinter groups. No comparison.

[Brittain33]

tender has a point even while he makes it in a really unconvincing way, imho.

less about austria than about countries feeling the wave of new big-gov right-wing-populism, killing the old conservative parties.

even while i would suggest, demographics and economy of the US makes it more robust against crypto-fascism than europe.

There is certainly an analogy between the Trump phenomenon and right-wing politics all over Europe. It is a powerful force.

But each election has two sides, and there is no comparison between a Democratic candidate with a reasonably united and very strong campaign apparatus and a Green Party gadfly who mainly benefited from being a vessel for anti-fascist votes. Whatever your personal view of Hillary Clinton—and Tender has not been shy in expressing his disgust—she is a strong candidate among a large share of the Democratic coalition.