While the Nevada numbers are obviously strong, we shouldn't assume that it will necessarily lead to the same result as 2012. Independents (yes, I am talking about registered independents) may swing to Trump at a high rate in this state, especially white independents. Because of the diversity of the state, and the registration numbers, this state is pretty safe for Clinton, but don't be surprised if it's within 3-4 points on election day, not a 7-8 point blowout.
This I could see in a worst-case scenario
I am also looking at polls from California that break down the Inland Empire into it's own region. The Inland Empire (Riverside + San Bernardino counties) is a good model for Nevada. The whites are mostly working class along with a rapidly diversifying population, along with a good chunk of retirees. The polls are showing weakness for Clinton there compared to Obama. That is one of the reasons why polls in California are showing a race similar to 2012. Those polls are showing the Inland Empire as being tied while Obama won there by about 4 in 2012.
In the end Clinton will over perform the polls in California and win by about 28 points and the Inland Empire by about 4, the same as 2012. But the difference between Nevada and the Inland Empire is that the white population in Nevada is much larger, which is why I expect a slight swing to Trump there.
