absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Kalimantan]

Can the blue avatars stop with the abuse please. Its fine to spin the polls and look for evidence your candidate is winning, but can you do it without the abuse and sarcasm please, not necessary.

[Kalimantan]

Question, if you don't mind.  From where are we getting these racial breakdowns on EV numbers?

[Kalimantan]

Question, if you don't mind.  From where are we getting these racial breakdowns on EV numbers?

Some states release them, some don't. For those that do they're on the websites of various Secretary of States. Here's a good link to keep track of EV everywhere: http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

If you scroll to the right they have racial breakdowns on their chart too.

Also, yes, please stop responding to that grade a idiot 2016 election. It's no good for me to have him on ignore if y'all are going to quote him... hit ignore and move on please.

Thanks. So the next question is, why on earth do the Secretary of States have this information? When you vote, you just put a cross in a piece of paper, no? - you surely don't have to state the colour of your skin? Racial profiling, yuck....

[Kalimantan]

Question, if you don't mind.  From where are we getting these racial breakdowns on EV numbers?

Some states release them, some don't. For those that do they're on the websites of various Secretary of States. Here's a good link to keep track of EV everywhere: http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

If you scroll to the right they have racial breakdowns on their chart too.

Also, yes, please stop responding to that grade a idiot 2016 election. It's no good for me to have him on ignore if y'all are going to quote him... hit ignore and move on please.

Thanks. So the next question is, why on earth do the Secretary of States have this information? When you vote, you just put a cross in a piece of paper, no? - you surely don't have to state the colour of your skin? Racial profiling, yuck....

lol

dude, they know who you are, they have you in a voter registration file

You have to declare the colour of your skin to register to vote? Stunning, in 2016.

[Kalimantan]

Thanks. So the next question is, why on earth do the Secretary of States have this information? When you vote, you just put a cross in a piece of paper, no? - you surely don't have to state the colour of your skin? Racial profiling, yuck....

If states don't collect racial demographic info, then it becomes harder to determine when minority voters are disenfranchised, which unfortunately continues to occur all too often here in the States.

Many would say it makes it easier for states to disenfranchise minority voters.

How else can you perfectly gerrymander a map to your advantage. Or ensure there are fewer polling stations in minority areas.

[Kalimantan]

Thanks. So the next question is, why on earth do the Secretary of States have this information? When you vote, you just put a cross in a piece of paper, no? - you surely don't have to state the colour of your skin? Racial profiling, yuck....

If states don't collect racial demographic info, then it becomes harder to determine when minority voters are disenfranchised, which unfortunately continues to occur all too often here in the States.

Many would say it makes it easier for states to disenfranchise minority voters.

How else can you perfectly gerrymander a map to your advantage. Or ensure there are fewer polling stations in minority areas.

Your lack of understand of US law/elections is showing here. I don't really feel like explaining this in detail but a lot of laws that protect nonwhites (incl. the Voting Rights Act) have provisions that would be literally impossible to enforce if the government didn't keep this data.

Oh for sure, and also some naivety on my part, and a desire for utopian ideals... I get there were far deeper racial divisions in the US than in most other countries and things needed to be done - but now it feels like this is perpetuating the issue. When I vote over here the government doesn't know if I'm black or white or male or female, so they can't favour me or franchise against me, and thus I'm not part of some sub-group for campaigns to pore over and be 'targeted' or ignored... and for the media to fret over my 'groups' turnout stats... god it must be bloody awful for black and hispanic people to be discussed and dissected like this as one big single block of people... too simplistic?

Anyway, didn't mean to derail this thread, just never realised stats like this were kept and released to the public..

[Kalimantan]

so about 70% give or take of the total votes casted for the election will be on election day.

No, the pace is well ahead of 2012, when the early vote was 36% of the total.

I think at least 40% of the total vote will be cast before election day,  and it might even be closer to 50% than 40%.

There expecting enormous turnout this election so the total votes casted will be much higher than 2012.

If Trump is ahead or withing striking distance in most of these battle ground states come election day, I like our chances a lot. One thing i know for sure is Trump supporters are 1000% showing up to vote. Hillary supporters well, some of them may just have something better to do that day and I am not convinced people will be energized to show up on election day and wait hours in line to cast a vote for her. Trump supporters would wait 10 hours in line to vote for him on election day. Kind of like Obama voters in 2012, they were showing up and voting no matter how long it took to actually get to the ballot.

I'm sure there are some very energised Trump voters, I think you have to be energised to be a Trump voter

Although if they are 1000% turning out to vote, why would they not be early-voting at the same rate as Clinton voters?

 and please don't underestimate the appeal for women to vote for the first woman president

[Kalimantan]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/03/politics/early-voting-battleground-states/index.html

Arizona
- Registered Republicans are ahead right now by 5.5%. But at this point four years ago, the GOP had a 10% advantage over Democrats.
- But the good news for Republicans here is that it appears they're gaining ground. One week ago, their lead over Democrats was only about 11,500. Today that lead is more than 71,000.

Colorado
- The Democratic lead one week ago was about 5.6%. It stands at 1.5% today.

Florida
- GOP has a 16K lead (trailed by 73K in 2008)
- Latinos had the largest spike in terms of raw votes, boosting their turnout by 129% from 2008. - White voters increased their turnout by 55%.
- And even though African-American turnout is up by 24% that is clearly a slower growth rate than the other racial groups, and their share of the electorate dropped from 2008.

Iowa
- Right now, about 41,000 more Democrats than Republicans have voted in the Hawkeye State. But at this point four years ago, they had an edge of more than 60,000 votes.

Nevada
- Dems ahead 29K, larger than 1 week ago (4 years ago, they were ahead 38K)

North Carolina
- Right now, registered Democrats are ahead by about 243,000 votes statewide. At this point in 2012, the Democratic lead was more than 307,000 votes.
- Blacks are 28% in 2012 to about 23% today.

Ohio
- Registered Republicans expanded their lead this week in Ohio. They're now ahead of Democrats by almost 66,000 votes, or about 5 points. They were only up by 2.5 points one week ago.

So clearly these numbers are promising for Republicans, if 2012 figures are truly comparable to 2016. But are they? I'm reading lots of pieces saying that Republicans and white voters are early-voting at record numbers, which is serving to cannabalise their election day vote. And if this is the case, then of course the EV gap between Dem and Rep wil shift towards the Reps.

Is this true? Is the % increase in early voting indeed greater than the % increase in number of registered voters? Are Republicans 'discovering' early-voting this year?

[Kalimantan]

Republicans up 17 among whites! And bear in mind CNN is by no means pro-Trump.

Read up - that's a BAD number for Trumpykins...

Is it a bad number for early voting, as election day voting may skews republican?

[Kalimantan]

The opinions from Ralston and Schale are very interesting, but they are democrats, for balance are there similar Republican operatives giving their regular take on numbers?

[Kalimantan]

One state not mentioned at all here is Tennessee. Only Nevada has a higher percentage of the electorate already voted than TN, so how are the demograhcs looking there? Any trends apparent?

[Kalimantan]

Assuming I've read McDonald's state-by-state numbers/columns correctly (some of the labeling sounds weird to me, but meh), here's a map showing the most recent early vote in each state as a percentage of the total 2012 vote.

Numbered are the 11 states where the early vote thus far is over 50% of the 2012 total vote.

do you know whats happening in Tennessee?

[Kalimantan]

Assuming I've read McDonald's state-by-state numbers/columns correctly (some of the labeling sounds weird to me, but meh), here's a map showing the most recent early vote in each state as a percentage of the total 2012 vote.

Numbered are the 11 states where the early vote thus far is over 50% of the 2012 total vote.


do you know whats happening in Tennessee?

Nothing is happening in Tennessee. It's simply a state where most of the vote is cast early. Around 75% of the total 2012 vote in TN was EV. There's nothing weird about having 68% of the total 2012 vote in at this point.

Thanks. I actually meant, is there anything happening with vote totals that might be instructive to the election at large?

[Kalimantan]

Assuming I've read McDonald's state-by-state numbers/columns correctly (some of the labeling sounds weird to me, but meh), here's a map showing the most recent early vote in each state as a percentage of the total 2012 vote.

Numbered are the 11 states where the early vote thus far is over 50% of the 2012 total vote.


do you know whats happening in Tennessee?

Nothing is happening in Tennessee. It's simply a state where most of the vote is cast early. Around 75% of the total 2012 vote in TN was EV. There's nothing weird about having 68% of the total 2012 vote in at this point.

Thanks. I actually meant, is there anything happening with vote totals in TN that might be instructive to the election at large?