absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Ronnie]

not EV but......arizona.....wow

https://mobile.twitter.com/HillaryforAZ/status/793984222339874816/video/1

One of the few times this cycle I wish high enthusiasm at large rallies would translate into actual votes, lol.

[Ronnie]

First of all, self-identified unaffiliated voters are not the same thing as registered unaffiliated voters, who skew more Democratic.

Second of all, the CNN poll you're referencing has Trump leading by a point in Clark County, which is utterly absurd and not going to happen.

[Ronnie]

OK guys, how have the odds changed today?  Seems like NV is moving towards likely Clinton, while we're all super confused about all those North Carolina tweets form whatshisface.  Florida doing pretty well too I take it?  But Colorado seems like she's in big trouble?  That's the message I seem to be getting.

There's no indication at all that Clinton is in big trouble in Colorado.  Not sure where you heard that from.

[Ronnie]

Miami Dade County early vote now up to 710K with one day of in person EV to go, 81.6% of 2012's final total of 870K. At this point in 2012 EV was at 424K.

https://twitter.com/MDCElections/status/795076678125056000

Can we say that the fat lady is warming up?

[Ronnie]

Wait, Florida is going to be 63.8% white?  If so, curtains for Trump, as far as I can tell.

[Ronnie]

Won't the ED vote in Florida reverse some of the diversification that's happened in the EV? 

[Ronnie]

Dem advantage in Duval up over 3,000 votes!

DEM 124,058
REP 121,027
OTH 47,472

FL is really moving hard at the end. That Obama-Clinton Machine.

Awesome!

Seconded! I honestly didn't expect Clinton to win Duval County, but now I'm not so sure. It's at least 50/50 at this point. Don't forget Obama just barely eked out a win here during his 2008 landslide.

Nope, McCain carried Duval County 51-49.

[Ronnie]

Soooo....after those EV numbers for Florida....what are Hillary's chances of winning it?

I wouldn't say Hillary has it in the bag, but it seems like Trump would have to come close to drawing an inside straight to win it.

[Ronnie]

I think the main question that will linger in my mind after this election is whether Trump has permanently mobilized Latinos, or whether they'll sink back down to their previous turnout levels in future presidential elections.

[Ronnie]

Why is it so shocking and horrifying to you guys that Republicans hate liberal democracy, and only favor gerrymandered, safe-space democracies, in which the worldview of white America is insulated from an increasingly diversifying country?  Haven't we known that for a while now?