absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[GeorgiaModerate]

Should this be merged into the absentee/early vote thread?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac early voting poll

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LOL if you actually believe those figures. Is Clinton up in EV 58-35 percent in Texas as well?

Has anyone claimed that she's up that much in Texas?  The numbers above are from polling data.  Now you can put as much stock in Q polls as you like, but it's a dishonest attempt to deflect when you bring in another state that is not the subject of the poll.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A clerical note on Florida: Today was the final day where voters were allowed to request a VBM ballot. So the VBM requests lock in after tomorrow. It's all about returning them now. I think (and Schale might think this too) that the GOP is cannibalizing some of their E-Day turnout with the VBM since this is the first time 2012 and 2014 active voters were mailed ballots

Wouldn't the cannibalization also be true of people who voted Democratic in 2012/14?

[GeorgiaModerate]

it's simple.

if cohn's model is even in the same universe than reality, than NC is clinton's and if she wins NC, she also wins high-educated CO/VA/NH.

That model no longer applies.

Pubs are coming home, including the educated Pubs. They are declaring themselves "undecided" in most recent polls, but expect that "undecided" is a codeword for shy Trump.

And what evidence tells you this?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is today the final day of early voting nationwide or does it keeps going in some places?

Today's the last day for Georgia.

[GeorgiaModerate]

if the polls are worth anything, the urban cities of WI are delivering ......

Aren't all cities urban...?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Don't forget that Republican counties are also experiencing big gains. Not only Miami-Dade, Volusia, Broward and Palm Beach.

Yes, but the big D counties in Florida have more people than the big R counties.  So if they all have large gains, it favors the Democats.  Top 10 counties by population:

1   Miami-Dade County   2,617,176
2   Broward County   1,838,844
3   Palm Beach County   1,372,171
4   Hillsborough County   1,291,578
5   Orange County   1,225,267
6   Pinellas County   929,048
7   Duval County   885,855
8   Lee County   661,115
9   Polk County   623,009
10   Brevard County   550,823

Source: http://countrydigest.org/florida-counties-by-population/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia breaks early voting record.  Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/GACFC/698b993e6d834f96a07f707c693a7e73/Article_2016-11-04-GA--Early%20Voting%20Record/id-0ac1a76cc1a14cb4811bbd4ca6524131

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Specifically, in Michigan you can vote early (absentee) only if you meet one of the following qualifications:

You’re physically disabled and as a result, you cannot vote on Election Day without another person’s assistance
You can’t vote on Election Day because of the tenets of your religion
You can’t vote on Election Day in the precinct where you reside because you are an election precinct inspector in another precinct
You’re 60 years of age or older
You’re absent or expect to be absent from the township or city in which you reside during the entire time the polls are open for voting on Election Day
You’re confined in jail awaiting arraignment or trial

The largest of these groups is people over 60 years of age, a Republican-heavy demographic.  So the Michigan early vote will naturally have a Republican lean.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats win Pinellas County (St. Petersburg) by 250. GOP lead narrowed to 1,249 votes. If there's one major swing county I'm worried about in FL, this is it

How did Pinellas vote in 2008 and 2012?

[GeorgiaModerate]

GOP just took the lead in CO

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

Democrats retook the lead:

https://twitter.com/MagellanStrat/status/794951566499442688

David Flaherty ‏@MagellanStrat  2h2 hours ago
CO Returned Ballot Report Update http://buff.ly/2f4NZsv  Democrats regain lead in ballots returned by 133. It's a battle folks!

GOP failed to keep growing that lead? They're dead in the water. They need to be ~+7 to be competitive. I felt good about CO even on the assumption that they would hit +2. Doesn't look like they'll even do that.

Keep up with the assumptions of how the indepedents will vote there this year.

Keep up with a complete misunderstanding of ID'd independents vs actually registered UFAs. And not knowing CO's UFAs. And being completely delusional on late-breakers in general.

]

Say waht you will, Trump wins in CO if independents break for him by more than 10. You are telling me you know who the indys voted for this year?

Of course he doesn't, but neither do you, I, or anyone else.  So all we can do is draw conclusions based on past behavior and demographics -- which indicate that if anything, Colorado independents are more  likely to break toward the Democratic candidate.  It's entirely possible that this will shift somewhat Republican this year (personally I doubt it, but as we're discussing it's uncertain), but it's unlikely that it will shift so much that the R candidate will win them by 10.  Not in Colorado.  Expecting otherwise is wishful thinking.  There's nothing wrong with wishful thinking and optimism, but it should be distinguished from objective assessment.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith 
Florida's Women : Men Gender Ratios of Early Votes Cast:
Overall: 1.3:1
Ds: 1.6:1
Rs: 1.1:1
NPAs: 1.1:1

Or in percentage terms, the early vote is about 56.5% female (+/- 0.9%, since 1.3 could represent anything between 1.25 and 1.35).

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov said among the 63% in FL that voted, it's 51-41 lead for Hillary. That lead may slightly expand after today.

Trump would have to crush her on Tuesday to overcome that.

8% third party???

May include those who refused to say who they voted for.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The massive amount of updates in this thread are great, but a little hard to keep up with.  Is this a fair summary of where the key states stand?

AZ - Looks good for Trump.
FL - Looks good for Clinton due to increased Hispanic and unaffiliated turnout.
IA - Looks good for Trump due to Dem underperformance from previous years.
NV - Probably in the bag for Clinton.
NC - Unclear.  Some indications look good for Clinton, some for Trump.
OH - Unclear.  Looked good for Trump early, but Dems have made up a lot of ground.
WI - Looks solid for Clinton.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So Comey "clears" Clinton - but a bit late for much of Colorado.

Am I wrong to worried about the Co demos puling a surprise and going for DT?

There are much more plausible things to worry about, if you wish to worry.

[GeorgiaModerate]

However it appears CO Latinos are not surging so far

What I've heard from someone looking at the data on who's cast ballots, and Ds now slightly underperforming Rs (re: no CO Latino surge)
https://twitter.com/NickRiccardi/status/795415030120480769

R votes do not necessarily equal Trump votes.  One of Clinton's strengths is among college-educated voters of all parties.  Colorado has one of the highest college-educated percentage of adults in the nation.

EDIT: And R votes may include a considerable number of Latino votes as well.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Early voting should be illegal.  What's the point of even having an election day anymore?  Let's just make it election month for lazy Americans.

No, Just start the voting on the weekend of election day.

This, or make Election Day a national holiday.

[GeorgiaModerate]

you could also vote sunday like everyone else?

really? no one?

okay

I would be fine with this.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Great visual presentation of Florida's early vote by party and day: https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/795694096224583680

[GeorgiaModerate]

Forsyth is also shocking on the opposite side but understandable given demographic change.

I live in Forsyth County, and there is clearly less enthusiasm for Trump here than for past Republican nominees.  Certainly there are some zealous Trump supporters, but many of the more affluent and highly educated Republicans are put off by Trump.  I know some normally certain R voters who'll leave the top spot blank, a couple voting for McMullin, and at least one voting for Clinton.  In addition, the county has seen demographic change as you mentioned; there are more AA and Latino residents here than ever before.

Not that I expect Forsyth to be close (that would be the biggest election shock ever), but it won't be the blowout of the last two elections.  Romney won 81-18 and McCain 78-20.  I really doubt that Trump will break 70%; perhaps something like 68-27.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Forsyth is also shocking on the opposite side but understandable given demographic change.

I live in Forsyth County, and there is clearly less enthusiasm for Trump here than for past Republican nominees.  Certainly there are some zealous Trump supporters, but many of the more affluent and highly educated Republicans are put off by Trump.  I know some normally certain R voters who'll leave the top spot blank, a couple voting for McMullin, and at least one voting for Clinton.  In addition, the county has seen demographic change as you mentioned; there are more AA and Latino residents here than ever before.

Not that I expect Forsyth to be close (that would be the biggest election shock ever), but it won't be the blowout of the last two elections.  Romney won 81-18 and McCain 78-20.  I really doubt that Trump will break 70%; perhaps something like 68-27.

68-27 in Forsyth seems like a landslide for Clinton statewide! Is there any evidence that the surge in white voters is just cannibalization, or is North GA really growing their vote to vote Trump, and offset his losses among the educated?

I'm still encouraged by the close race among the live caller polls

No, I think it's just that Trump is a very poor fit for Forsyth -- or at least the "New" Forsyth (overflow of technical and professional workers from Alpharetta and its neighbors).  If that 68-27 guess represented a uniform swing, then I agree that Clinton would win the state, but it's not going to happen in the further-out North GA counties.  Trump will probably do as well or even better than Romney there.  A county swing map after the election will be interesting; I'll predict that Forsyth has one of the largest D swings.

Overall, I think the statewide race is going to be close (no more than 3% margin), but Clinton is going to come up short.  It wouldn't shock me to be wrong, though.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If 135,000,000 people do vote, what turnout % would that be of eligible voters?

The U.S. Elections Project, a good source, says that the Voting Eligible Population (VEP) is 231,556,622 (http://www.electproject.org/2016g).  So 135 million would be a bit over 58%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NORTH CAROLINA polling of early voting summary

Presented from most-to-least percent of Early Voters (EV), with absolute number of EV (which can be used as a proxy for MOE) in parentheses:

Quinnipiac: 67% (583 EV)-- Clinton +12 (52-40)

Siena/NYT: 63% (504 EV)-- Clinton +9 (49-40)

Quinnipiac: 44% (265 EV)-- Clinton +22 (58-36)

Emerson: 32% (209 EV)-- Clinton +22 (59-37)

Siena/NYT: 31% (492 EV)-- Clinton +15 (53-38)

YouGov: 29% (288 EV)-- Clinton +6 (51-45)

Marist/NBC: 29% (295 EV)-- Clinton +28 (61-33)

PPP: 19% (166 EV)-- Clinton +26 (63-37)

Quinnipiac: 15% (105 EV)-- Clinton +28 (62-34)


So much like Florida, Clinton seems to have built a huge lead in the very early voting that seems to have dropped down to high single digits among the ~66% of voters that voted by the end of in-person EV (turnout estimate of 4.7 M taken from Upshot).

Ok you are just making up numbers. Troll. There is no way every single poll in both states show her with a double digit lead.

If you look closely, some of them are single-digit leads.