absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Antonio the Sixth]

tuesday +2000 in clark
https://mobile.twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/793950659410132995

nothing stops this train.

That's +2000 compared to yesterday, but I'd rather know how it compares to that same day in 2012.

Big uptick in Florida Dem turnout today. Good to see

Great news indeed! Any chance today is the day we finally take the lead?

[Antonio the Sixth]

tuesday +2000 in clark
https://mobile.twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/793950659410132995

nothing stops this train.

That's +2000 compared to yesterday, but I'd rather know how it compares to that same day in 2012.

Big uptick in Florida Dem turnout today. Good to see

Great news indeed! Is this the day we finally take the lead?

I think we get close, but not quite

That's starting to get frustrating.

[Antonio the Sixth]

while nv rund with it and fl improves....question marks over CO regarding that new high-qual poll. i hate this election. ^^

By high-quality, you mean that trash poll that had them tied? LOL.

I'm definitely not worried about CO.

[Antonio the Sixth]

while nv rund with it and fl improves....question marks over CO regarding that new high-qual poll. i hate this election. ^^

By high-quality, you mean that trash poll that had them tied? LOL.

I'm definitely not worried about CO.

it's not trash even while the results are junky. ^^

It's a uni poll with no track record and ridiculous crosstabs. If you want to panic about something, there are many other polls to focus on.

[Antonio the Sixth]

males are disappointing.

This is true in many different contexts.

[Antonio the Sixth]

guilford, baby!

https://mobile.twitter.com/gercohen/status/794005346473934848?s=09

Big push there. That was the county with 1 polling place for a week of early voting

Fantastic news! I hope this means the AA % will be way up in today's final numbers.

[Antonio the Sixth]

GOP not as lucky as the Cubs today in Clark:
Total Clark: 36,041
Ds: 15,959 44%
Rs: 11,202 31%
Dems add almost 4,800.

https://twitter.com/Franciscoj_NV/status/794041357832749056

Fantastic!

How does that compare to same day in 2012?

[Antonio the Sixth]

@jante....this question becomes annoying annnd.....1000 more or so this time.

It's the only question that matters, though. Everything is relative.

And these figures are EXCELLENT. I'm starting to feel good about CCM (knocking on wood, though!).

[Antonio the Sixth]

The early vote numbers in North Carolina have been insane the last day or two. So much for African Americans not voting.

Do we have numbers or, even better, graphs?

Yup

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/?m=0

From these graphs, it doesn't look like AA turnout is getting any better.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The early vote numbers in North Carolina have been insane the last day or two. So much for African Americans not voting.

Do we have numbers or, even better, graphs?

Yup

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/?m=0

From these graphs, it doesn't look like AA turnout is getting any better.

The most recent post on that blog is actually from this morning. Today's numbers aren't in yet, so the big day isn't in this, I don't think.

Oh, good to know. I'm holding out hope!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nevada. Hopefully tomorrow continues to match/exceed 2012 levels.

So, tonight's bottom line is that it's looking good for Dems in NV and CO, decent in FL, but still pretty dire in NC. I really, really, really hope Black turnout finally surges there tomorrow. These low %s terrify me.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nevada. Hopefully tomorrow continues to match/exceed 2012 levels.

So, tonight's bottom line is that it's looking good for Dems in NV and CO, decent in FL, but still pretty dire in NC. I really, really, really hope Black turnout finally surges there tomorrow. These low %s terrify me.

Things have drastically improved in NC because the AA vote has finally started getting out in droves. And remember, just because they are a smaller share doesn't mean they're not voting. More have voted this year than in 2012.

Source for that?

Anyway, just pulling even won't be enough to keep up if Whites are at 140% or so from 2012.

[Antonio the Sixth]

"FL Dems surpass GOP in early/absentee ballots cast by 1,800. Before dawn, GOP led by 2,500"

Sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeet.

At last!

How many more votes can we expect to add to that margin by Saturday? And how would that compare to 2012?

[Antonio the Sixth]

At last!

How many more votes can we expect to add to that margin by Saturday? And how would that compare to 2012?

bad, since in 2012 dems overtook republicans after the first real weekend but with MUUUCH more registered dems and many fewer sent absentee ballots.

I know all that. I was asking for actual numbers.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  39s39 seconds ago
23,500 had voted by 2 PM in Clark. Record turnout possible. 50,000?

YESYESYES

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ralston

"Clark County voters w/3 hours left: 32,800. May not get to 50K. My guess is Ds will not increase margin by 10K as did on last day in '12."

Ugh.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nevada!

[Antonio the Sixth]

From Ralston's blog post earlier, it sounds like, if he'd have to give odds for NV races, it would be something like 99% Hillary, 80% CCM. Even allowing for more uncertainty (people tend to underestimate the likelihood of unlikely outcomes) and putting their odds at 90% and 67% respectively, I wonder how 538's aggregate odds for President and Senate control would change if we plugged in those numbers.

NC, on the other hand, is not looking good. I trust Black voters a million times more than I trust muh oh-so-smart educated whites. If Blacks are not showing up, Hillary might eke out a win, but Ross is toast.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Texas finishes early voting with 46% of registered voters voting. In 2012 it was 39.4%.

For comparison:

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2012/nov2.shtml

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/Elections/earlyvoting/2016/nov4.shtml

Edit: though I'm confused - are these totals just the counties highlighted in the table?

Which counties have seen the greatest increase? Is it still the urban centers + RG valley ones?

[Antonio the Sixth]

There is no point in arguing with dxu

He thinks Trump is favored to win any number of states. It doesn't matter what you say to him. He is locked into his own interpretation. Just give it up.

Yeah people, let's not feed the troll please.

This is the best thread on the 2016 board and possibly on the entire forum right now. Let's keep it this way.

[Antonio the Sixth]

NPAs have passed the GOP in Broward County. With about an hour to go in the day:

DEM: 311,252
GOP: 123,152
IND: 124,266

Broward is now at almost 3/4 of its total 2012 turnout. Final numbers for the day will be in a little after 7 PM

Wowza. That's amazing.

I just had to make fun of the "African-Americans are not voting narrative." They weren't voting as much early but are making the charge late

Florida definitely is looking strong. It's NC I'm very much concerned about (and, no, I won't shut up about it).

[Antonio the Sixth]

By reading the posts in here for NV and FL early voting, we can expect tomorrow's early vote totals to seal the victory for Clinton before the weekend is over.

I'm not saying it will happen tonight, but probably tomorrow night.

NV is done voting until election day. But for FL, yeah, tomorrow should be a good day.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, there's no way around the fact that Black EV numbers in NC are way down. If they don't catch up a bit on election day, we're in deep trouble there.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, there's no way around the fact that Black EV numbers in NC are way down. If they don't catch up a bit on election day, we're in deep trouble there.

Perhaps (and I mean that). But educated white #s don't have to move much to counteract losses in the AA community. I actually have turned the corner and view NC as true toss up/slightest Clinton tilt. We'll see where it lands, but it'll be a late one, I think.

Maybe, but that certainly won't save us from Governor Bathroom and Senator Useless GOP Hack.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What exactly are the figures relating to the black vote in North Carolina that you are freaking out over?

IIRC, Black share of the early voters was 29% in 2012 and it's 23% today. It's a massive drop-off.