absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Minnesota Mike]

GOP not as lucky as the Cubs today in Clark:
Total Clark: 36,041
Ds: 15,959 44%
Rs: 11,202 31%
Dems add almost 4,800.

https://twitter.com/Franciscoj_NV/status/794041357832749056

[Minnesota Mike]

Last day of early voting by state:

Nevada: Today
Texas: Today
Arizona: Today
Wisconsin: Today
Georgia: Today
North Carolina: Saturday
Florida: Saturday or Sunday (depends on the county)
Ohio: Monday
Iowa: Monday

Sunday's numbers will be interesting in Florida. All the big Democratic leaning counties will be open for EV while most of the Republican leaning counties will be closed.  

[Minnesota Mike]

Huge turnout day in Broward county. Already a 1 day high for VBM returns and on pace for a 1 day high for EIP voters.

http://www.voterfocus.com/voterturnout/GetVoterTurnout.php?county=broward&election=213#

[Minnesota Mike]

Early Voting 2012 Fl:
Florida
Votes: 4.3 million
Democrats: 43 percent
Republicans: 40 percent

Final Results:
Winner B. Obama (i)    Dem   50.0%   4,235,270   29
M. Romney             GOP   49.1%   4,162,081   

So in 2012, Obama won early voting by 3% and lost election day by 2.1%. So R's are still looking great there sinces its basically a dead heat EV wise right now.

My guess by the time early voting is over Dems will have a 1-2% lead. Souls to the polls is this coming Sunday and while all the major Democratic leaning counties will be open for early voting Sunday most Republican leaning counties will be closed.  Also  with so many voters voting early election day voting is bound to be way down. Tougher to make up a deficit with fewer voters.

[Minnesota Mike]

You do know that all those Indy's are not going to break for Trump, don't you?

Trump has to win Indys by 20 points to make up for the early vote deficit. There is no evidence that this is happening. A single outlier CNN poll doesn't prove they are

Actually, a FOX News poll had Trump winning Independents by I believe 44 to 33?

Again there is a difference between self identified Independents and and those who are registered as NPA.

[Minnesota Mike]

Huge turnout day in Miami Dade.  42,810 EIP voters, by far biggest turnout to date.

http://www.miamidade.gov/elections/library/reports/2016-11-08-general-election-daily-early-voting-report.pdf

[Minnesota Mike]

Turnout in Miami-Dade over 50K.

https://twitter.com/MDCElections/status/795415767688871937

[Minnesota Mike]

Judge has ordered that polling booths stay open in Miami-Dade until 9 PM.

I believe only one location has extended hours.

[Minnesota Mike]

Osceola county Florida: 105,334 early votes so far.  2012 total of 108,927 vote.