absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Yank2133]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

NC Status as of 10/28

                         Clinton       Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted     686,000    462,000      56.7%     38.2% (18.5% gap)
Yet to vote        1,491,000   1,440,000    46.4%   44.8%
Total estimates   2,177,000   1,903,000   49.2%   43.0%

NC Status as of 10/30

                        Clinton      Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted     878,000   653,000      54.9%    40.8% (14.1% gap)
Yet to vote        1,316,000   1,256,000   46.3%    44.2%
Total estimates   2,194,000   1,909,000   49.4%   43.0%   

NC Status as of 11/2

                      Clinton       Trump          Clinton   Trump
Already voted   1,110,000   897,000      52.9%   42.7% (10.2% gap)
Yet to vote        1,094,000   1,045,000    45.7%   43.7%
Total estimates   2,203,000   1,941,000   49.1%   43.2%

Looking pretty great there.  I hope their model is remotely accurate

I'm skeptical that NC will be a 6-point win for Hillary (unless the polls are off and we have a landslide on our hands), but the early vote is looking good so far.

Yeah, I think if she wins there it will be by 2-3 points. 6 point win means, she is winning by 8-9 nationally and I don't think that is the case.

[Yank2133]

"hidden trump supporters"

lol k

I thought this theory wad debunked already. Granted, it is not like 2016election cares, but still.........

[Yank2133]

"hidden trump supporters"

lol k

laugh all you want but like i said i know many college educated white voters like myself who wont admit in public they support him. On an anonymous board i will but if im asked at work by anyone or in a public setting i say im fed up with the whole system and both parties and will vote for the independent candidate.

Why the hell would people lie to pollsters? This secret Trump voter argument doesn't make sense, because there is no reason for people to hide their intentions.

I am sorry, this just reeks of desperation.

[Yank2133]

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If they get to 13% then you pretty much put FL in her column.

[Yank2133]

it's simple.

if cohn's model is even in the same universe than reality, than NC is clinton's and if she wins NC, she also wins high-educated CO/VA/NH.

That model no longer applies.

Pubs are coming home, including the educated Pubs. They are declaring themselves "undecided" in most recent polls, but expect that "undecided" is a codeword for shy Trump.

Shy Trump voters are not a thing.

Yup.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/04/upshot/donald-trump-cant-count-on-those-missing-white-voters.html?_r=0

[Yank2133]

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It is over in NV.

[Yank2133]

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[Yank2133]

So with NV gone for Trump, that means he has to win either PA, MI, WI, VA, or CO. No wonder he is spending his time in Wisconsin now.

LOL at people saying NV is gone, guess we will see in three days.

You're in for a rough Tuesday. You completely ignore the data of votes we have and reference NV polls (which are never accurate). Give it up. NV and CO are gone.

WI won't ever be a viable state for him. At the height of everything, he's never even come close to leading in the polls, and he's WAY down in the EV, both in registration and in the polls of it.

MI is another faulty poll state. With WI being where it is, MI is going nowhere.

VA is not going for Trump, period. NoVA is now a larger share of the vote than before, and he's a horrible fit even for there.

PA is his best bet. Good luck though.

I respectively disagree fully with NV and CO being over already. NV Trump could still take IMO for sure CO will be much tougher.

NV is gone.

Dems lead in Clark County is just going to be too much for him to overcome.

[Yank2133]

Thus far, Democrats have about 40% of the Nevada early vote to about 36% for Republicans with 23% Indy.

Unfotunately, for the independents, a late CNN poll has them breaking 54 to 27 for Trump. In fact, every poll in NV I have found have had Indys breaking for Trump.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relnv3.pdf
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_Research_Nevada_October_31_2016.pdf

Many are looking at the 4 point lead in D to R voters and drawing early conclusions that N is going to go D. The truth is, if the polling of Indys is correct, the race is exteremly close.

Lol, Trumpkins still think he has a chance in NV based on a crappy CNN poll?

Dog sweat.....can smell all the way from VA.

[Yank2133]

Mark Preston of CNN was just saying that Republicans have a 17% percent advantage amongst whites in Florida.

Could be wrong, but that doesnt sound the best for Trump?  Thought Romney did better among whites in Florida than that?

It is not good.

He has to outperform Mitt when it comes to white voters, if he doesn't he is toast.

[Yank2133]

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[Yank2133]

Good God almighty

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/794755970463207424

[Yank2133]

What does Ralston say the absolute percentage of D voters relative to 2016? As red avatars were so fond of reminding us in 2012, many Independents are actually Republicans disgusted with the party's leadership (i.e. prime targets for Trump).

There's a huge difference between self identified independents in polls and the actual registered independents.

That being said, the OP is relying on Trump overperforming Romney with independents and Clinton only winning 82 (!) percent of Democrats. That math is nothing short of Dick Morris level insanity.

Both Trump and Clinton are apparently winning about 90% of their base according to Ralston, who has seen the hard data and Clinton is holding her own among independents.

It is over in NV, which means DT is likely toast and the OP knows this which is why he is lashing out.

[Yank2133]

Ralston is like CNN who called FL for Gore in 2000, based on some shady exit polls.

And then it turned out totally different ...

(Although the Bush folks could have also faked the FL results)

Hideous analogy. This is raw votes.

A raw vote total, yes.

But nobody knows how they voted ... so making any conclusions from them is pretty stupid.

Especially a call coming from a major political journalist like him.

Give me a break, Tender.

It is ****ing Clark County!

[Yank2133]

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But yeah.....he can still win NV.

[Yank2133]

I wouldn't read much into the Trump campaign's behavior.  They can't be trusted to behave logically.

I mean even in 2012, when Romney started pushing for these blue states, most people assumed he was making a hail mary attempt. It turns out he really believed he was winning, and that those states were the real battlegrounds.  I have no doubts that Trump is thinking the same way right now.

That was the election with few undecided voters and they all swung for Obama.

This election has a huge number of undecideds and I think "undecided" this late is a codeword for shy Trump.

This election has a huge number of undecideds and I think "undecided" this late is a codeword for shy Clinton.

See, I can bullsh[Inks] too...

No such thing as shy Clinton.

Wait 3 days and see for yourself.

Nate Cohn would say otherwise.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/04/upshot/donald-trump-cant-count-on-those-missing-white-voters.html

[Yank2133]

What does Ralston say the absolute percentage of D voters relative to 2016? As red avatars were so fond of reminding us in 2012, many Independents are actually Republicans disgusted with the party's leadership (i.e. prime targets for Trump).

There's a huge difference between self identified independents in polls and the actual registered independents.

That being said, the OP is relying on Trump overperforming Romney with independents and Clinton only winning 82 (!) percent of Democrats. That math is nothing short of Dick Morris level insanity.

Both Trump and Clinton are apparently winning about 90% of their base according to Ralston, who has seen the hard data and Clinton is holding her own among independents.

It is over in NV, which means DT is likely toast and the OP knows this which is why he is lashing out.

What do you mean by hard data?

Internal polling from both parties.

Clinton is apparently holding steady with her base. And I was actually wrong, Trump isn't getting 90% of the base.

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[Yank2133]

SillyAmerican's meltdown on Tuesday is going to be epic.

As for your question, according to internal polling by both parties, there has been no evidence of much crossover voting.

[Yank2133]

This has been consistently explained to you many times, yet you keep repeated yourself.

Polling has consistently shown that registered Democrats are more unified than Republicans this cycle (except in a select few states that contain dixiecrats, though that effect should be far less this year).   While there has been some disunity on the Democratic side, Sanders supporters are likely to say they are independents.

Registered independents (as opposed to self identified independents, which are R leaning) seem to be very D leaning in the early vote, which is why the vast majority of polling shows Clinton outperforming the partisan breakdown among early voters.

The crosstabs to that CNN poll were very weird, showing Trump leading in Clark county, and polling in Nevada has a solid history of underestimating Democrats.

http://static.lakana.com/nxsglobal/lasvegasnow/document_dev/2016/11/02/poll_12593657_ver1.0.pdf

Another poll showing 16% of D are cross voting for Trump, but only 11% of R are cross voting for Hillary.

In other words, public polling in NV is junk and we all have known this already. But if you want to die on this hill, by all means go for it.

[Yank2133]

This has been consistently explained to you many times, yet you keep repeated yourself.

Polling has consistently shown that registered Democrats are more unified than Republicans this cycle (except in a select few states that contain dixiecrats, though that effect should be far less this year).   While there has been some disunity on the Democratic side, Sanders supporters are likely to say they are independents.

Registered independents (as opposed to self identified independents, which are R leaning) seem to be very D leaning in the early vote, which is why the vast majority of polling shows Clinton outperforming the partisan breakdown among early voters.

The crosstabs to that CNN poll were very weird, showing Trump leading in Clark county, and polling in Nevada has a solid history of underestimating Democrats.

http://static.lakana.com/nxsglobal/lasvegasnow/document_dev/2016/11/02/poll_12593657_ver1.0.pdf

Another poll showing 16% of D are cross voting for Trump, but only 11% of R are cross voting for Hillary.

In other words, public polling in NV is junk and we all have known this already. But if you want to die on this hill, by all means go for it.

Come Tuesday, Ralston and Co will be surprised when they find out how many D's crossed over to Trump. There is no 6% lead in Nevada. We will see.

Sure, whatever you say.

[Yank2133]

Schale has Friday's diversity numbers for FL. Remember: He thinks 13% AA is a game-sealer.

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The low black turnout is going to make things easy for Trump in FL.

Did you even read that post?

Let him be. It will just make his meltdown even more hilarious on Tuesday.

[Yank2133]

Daniel A Smith

"Two #Bigly Tweets of Florida 2016 Election...
Of ballots cast so far, % by party of those who skipped 2012:
23% Ds
20% Rs
38% NPAs"

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The end is near for Trump.

[Yank2133]

Early voting should be illegal.  What's the point of even having an election day anymore?  Let's just make it election month for lazy Americans.

Why not? If we are unable to provide infrastructure where voters don't have to wait hours, even with early voting, what is wrong with a month for voting?

We let candidates campaign for 3.5 years...

He is a Republican, they hate democracy.

[Yank2133]

Daniel A. Smith

Florida Race/Ethnic votes cast & share of early vote in 2012:
B: 764.0k (15.9%)
H: 522.5k (10.9%)
W: 3.3m (67.9%)
All Other: 251.5k (7%)

Florida Race/Ethnic votes cast & share of early vote to date:
B: 834.6k (13.1%)
H: 976.3k (15.3%)
W: 4.2m (65.8%)
All Other: 373k (5.8%)

AA hit the 13% threshold.

[Yank2133]

if we can project that a drop of registration means a loss of obama-voting dems, why exactly hasn't O cleaned romney's clock in NC in 2012?

College educated whites.