absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Maxwell]

maybe African Americans were just aiming to give white liberals a scare - good job guys!

[Maxwell]

Trump is not going to do as well with white voters as Romney did. Romney won North Carolina whites by a whopping 68 TO 32. There hasn't been a single poll showing Trump winning a similar margin of them.

[Maxwell]

"hidden trump supporters"

lol k

[Maxwell]

WOWzer, please note almost all polls show clinton up in Virginia but Trump seems to be closing the gap BIG Time. Tim Kaine really helping the ticket lol.

For what its worth, just out:

Virginia Hampton-University/CPP Poll

Trump - 44% (+3%)
Clinton - 41%

A 15 point shift in this poll from a month ago, if Virginia starts heading toward a battle ground state, D's can completely forget NC and start worrying about that state, if Trump carries is he will be President.

This is not the place to drop your idiot polls. There is a thread for it already.

[Maxwell]

not EV but......arizona.....wow

https://mobile.twitter.com/HillaryforAZ/status/793984222339874816/video/1

that just shows you how many trump dems there are bro

[Maxwell]

CNN is wildly incompetent and always searching for a neutral narrative. PPP are partisans, but they're good at what they do and aren't actively tipping the scales.

[Maxwell]

The cherrypicking is unreal.

Absentee voting in Michigan has always heavily favored Republicans and Democrats win on the election day vote.

yeah but TRUMPDEMS

[Maxwell]

so where is Trump doing better than expected if he's not doing that well in Duval? Northern Florida? rural areas?

[Maxwell]

I need to drop black turnout pretty low (45%) for it to start doing serious damage, according to 538's updated demographic model. And that's not including the surge of latinos, the revolt of college educated whites, and the jump in female turnout.

[Maxwell]

We'll see if it shakes out in the data but Marc Caputo keeps on talking to Cuban Republicans who defected to Clinton and sees a significant Clinton/Rubio vote in Miami

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/795411822769766406

That's expected. What's surprising is he's seeing 60/40 for Clinton/Trump among Cuban Republicans. That's scary. Southern Florida will be a bloodbath for Trump on Tuesday.

Trump isn't even going to win the Republican-friendly Cuban-American vote in Florida and yet the LA Times poll thinks he's at 42%% with Latinos nationally. Lol.

lots of Silencio Hispanic Tromploco votantes

[Maxwell]

Intesresting quote from The Nooner (CA political newsletter):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Ooooooooooooooooooooooooo

the first three are terrific, the last bit of news makes me deeply sad but I can imagine it.

[Maxwell]

If 135,000,000 people do vote, what turnout % would that be of eligible voters?

The U.S. Elections Project, a good source, says that the Voting Eligible Population (VEP) is 231,556,622 (http://www.electproject.org/2016g).  So 135 million would be a bit over 58%.

That would be higher than 2008 - Highly improbable, but not impossible.

[Maxwell]

nc is s curious place.

i predict...either trump is stronger in CO/VA/NC (all 3 states) than projected or in none of them.

Trump is going to lose Colorado and Virginia by quite a bit more than Romney lost them.