absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[dspNY]

Nate Cohn throwing some cold water on Trump in NC

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  6m6 minutes ago Washington, DC
NC early voters who didn't vote in 2012:
White: C 43, T 45 (v. 35-55 among e.v. who vtd in 12)
Nonwhite: C 97 T 2 (v. 90-6 among vt in 12)

 Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  21m21 minutes ago Washington, DC
Upshot/Siena polling of North Carolina early voters who *didn't* vote in 2012 (n=133): Clinton 57, Trump 34

If African-American turnout improves in the last few days of the early voting period Trump is toast in NC

[dspNY]

I think it's fair to say NC is a dead heat right now, it could go either way really.

I think Clinton is up 2-3 but it is still winnable for the Republicans

[dspNY]

Big uptick in Florida Dem turnout today. Good to see

[dspNY]

Looks like 31K in Broward early vote today plus another 18.5K vote by mail ballots that haven't been counted by the state's website yet but are on the county website.

Broward's VBM tally is 153,448. The state's VBM count for Broward is 134,982

[dspNY]

tuesday +2000 in clark
https://mobile.twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/793950659410132995

nothing stops this train.

That's +2000 compared to yesterday, but I'd rather know how it compares to that same day in 2012.

Big uptick in Florida Dem turnout today. Good to see

Great news indeed! Is this the day we finally take the lead?

I think we get close, but not quite

[dspNY]

Despite polls suggesting dead heat, Nevada is trending Clinton's way.

So Dems take the lead in Florida when it will be updated?

Florida updates are in the early morning, US East Coast time. They usually make 3 or 4

[dspNY]

A clerical note on Florida: Today was the final day where voters were allowed to request a VBM ballot. So the VBM requests lock in after tomorrow. It's all about returning them now. I think (and Schale might think this too) that the GOP is cannibalizing some of their E-Day turnout with the VBM since this is the first time 2012 and 2014 active voters were mailed ballots

[dspNY]

Florida updates are in the early morning, US East Coast time. They usually make 3 or 4

Thanks. Currently R are about 18,000 votes ahead, if that holds up to the Election Day then I can't see Trump losing it. D won it by 177,000 in 2012 apparently so a big difference.

Dems won the early in-person vote by that much but lost the VBM by about 80K so Obama had a 90K or so lead in Party ID going into E-Day. He won FL by 64K

[dspNY]

A clerical note on Florida: Today was the final day where voters were allowed to request a VBM ballot. So the VBM requests lock in after tomorrow. It's all about returning them now. I think (and Schale might think this too) that the GOP is cannibalizing some of their E-Day turnout with the VBM since this is the first time 2012 and 2014 active voters were mailed ballots

Wouldn't the cannibalization also be true of people who voted Democratic in 2012/14?

Possible. But Schale is saying that the Dems are getting more low-propensity voters to the polls

[dspNY]

Florida updates are in the early morning, US East Coast time. They usually make 3 or 4

Thanks. Currently R are about 18,000 votes ahead, if that holds up to the Election Day then I can't see Trump losing it. D won it by 177,000 in 2012 apparently so a big difference.

Dems won the early in-person vote by that much but lost the VBM by about 80K so Obama had a 90K or so lead in Party ID going into E-Day. He won FL by 64K

Yep- and if 100k Dixiecrats switch registration, we could lose the EV-ID by 50k and still win.

That would be a tall order. I think we have to be even at the very worst. I'd prefer to be 75K ahead at the worst to feel confident

[dspNY]

Repubs win Washoe again by almost 500 (remember, R's outvoted D's in Washoe in Week 2 of early voting in 2012).

GOP: 3,940
DEM: 3,459

Clark looks very good today so far so the Clark firewall will get bigger

[dspNY]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/793987244533096448

31,300 have voted so far in Clark today. The freiwal is getting taller, folks!

That's what I wanna hear. Make NH+ME-02 disappear from the math.

That's why you're seeing Trump going back to MI, WI, CO, NM. He's fishing for a different path because his NV casino path looks foreclosed

[dspNY]

I did some math for Duval County's turnout today. Dems actually beat the GOP by 82 votes (combined VBM and early vote)

[dspNY]

Miami-Dade came in massive

46,255 total
34,348 in person

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794002733829341184

[dspNY]

hello nasty women!

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  11m11 minutes ago
Michael McDonald Retweeted daniel a. smith
Seeing this is NC, too. Women engagement one of the under-reported stories of the election

daniel a. smith @electionsmith
Florida’s Gender Gap: Nearly 4.5 Million Floridians have voted. 55% are women… https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/11/02/floridas-gender-gap-nearly-4-5-million-floridians-have-voted-55-are-women …

That's an abnormal gender gap. Usually it is 52% women, maybe 53%. This adds some cushion to Clinton

[dspNY]

guilford, baby!

https://mobile.twitter.com/gercohen/status/794005346473934848?s=09

Big push there. That was the county with 1 polling place for a week of early voting

[dspNY]

This could be a decisive number re: Puerto Rican turnout

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794018888581312512

[dspNY]

GOP not as lucky as the Cubs today in Clark:
Total Clark: 36,041
Ds: 15,959 44%
Rs: 11,202 31%
Dems add almost 4,800.

https://twitter.com/Franciscoj_NV/status/794041357832749056

And the wall just got 4,800 votes higher!

Nevada quickly moving out of play

[dspNY]

We finally have an Iowa update from yesterday:

Ballots Requested:

DEM: 258,063
GOP: 208,108
IND: 140,675
Other: 2,050

Ballots cast:

DEM: 217,054
GOP: 174,452
IND: 110,975
Other: 1,573

Dems lead in ballot requests by 50K and votes cast by 42.5K. As of this time, Clinton's early vote lead is only about 2/3 of Barack Obama's lead in 2012 in Iowa

[dspNY]

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/03/are-ohio-republicans-beating-dems-at-their-own-early-voting-game.html

Ohio

- Republicans think they're behind 70K behind in early voting, half the gap vs 2012
- Republicans claim they're getting more low propensity voters vs Democrats
- In Democratic Cuyahoga County, Democrats are down 25% vs 2012, and Republicans up 13%
- In Republican Butler County, Democrats up 68%, Republicans only up 28%
- In Republican Delaware County, Democrats up 92%, vs Republicans up 50%

Those are hugely problematic for Trump. The Cuyahoga number is still problematic for Clinton but how much of that is actually Democrats who took a Repub ballot in the primary to vote for Kasich/against Trump

[dspNY]

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  4m4 minutes ago Florida, USA
Had this hunch that the GOP FL early vote numbers were a bit inflated by some old N. FL Dems who were Dem EV voters in 12, but switched 1/

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  1m1 minute ago Florida, USA
Turns out almost 50k of GOP EV in 16 were Dem EV in 12. I'd be surprised if more than 1-2k of them had voted Dem since 1964 or 76. 2/2

That means we need 50K less of a lead than Obama in 2012 to win FL, even taking into account Cubans swinging our way and non-affiliated Puerto Ricans voting Democratic

[dspNY]

Iowa absentee ballots, 11/3

Ballot requests:

DEM: 263,559
GOP: 213,759
IND: 145,645
Other: 2,149

Ballots cast:

DEM: 227,684
GOP: 185,656
IND: 119,710
Other: 1,715

Dem ballot request lead at about 50K. Dem vote lead at 42K, down 500 from yesterday

[dspNY]

Ralston thinks Cortez Masto is slightly ahead of Heck in the Senate race

[dspNY]

Ralston says that Cresent Hardy (R in NV-4) and Danny Tarkanian (R in NV-3) are just about goners

[dspNY]

Schale is excited...crediting Obama for Duval today as he was in Jax:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794321677014487040

Dems won Duval by 153 votes and reduced the GOP party ID advantage to 1.1%