absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[JerryArkansas]

https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/793828588197863425

Yeah republican's are screwed.

[JerryArkansas]

wow

Republican surge in Nevada. Early Voting 2nd week (11/2 9AM)
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
In Person: DEM 39.89%  REP 37.79% Other 22.32%

Now Nevada=Likely TRUMP

Go away troll.

I'm a troll becuz wrote the facts? amazing red avatar!

I feel sad for the country knowing that some people believe the crap you post.

[JerryArkansas]

Was early voting made easier in MA.  They are now at 262% of 2012 early vote with two days to go.

[JerryArkansas]

Was early voting made easier in MA.  They are now at 262% of 2012 early vote with two days to go.

Now if only there was something exciting going on in MA...

I know about the referendum, I was just wondering if it was just due to that or if the rules have been loosened.

[JerryArkansas]

Guilford County, the centerpiece of the cut polling places in NC is now matching 2012 numbers in total votes over same time period.  Dems came out in force after being targeted.

[JerryArkansas]

Michael McDonald has mentioned his voter file is stale, maybe as of September so that could contribute to it, and I think third party vendors have better data on the unknowns (based on modeling).

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/01/politics/early-voting-update-black-vote-decreasing/
CNN has the Black vote at 31% as of 10/31, I think about 3% higher than Michael's reporting, but that's still trailing previous years.

He had been reporting 28.x% Black, yet it dipped to 27.7% today.

At least in Florida and North Carolina, the Black % is creeping up, but no sign of that in Georgia.

Just remember, the percentages are going to be lower, not the raw numbers. 

[JerryArkansas]

     Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 34,351,774 votes making up 74.3% of the entire 2012 early vote.

still seems kind of low, since only a few days are left...even stops tomorrow at some places.

is this normal? (lots of mail outstanding i guess)

The last few days of early voting are huge.  They are usually what makes or breaks when it comes to numbers.

[JerryArkansas]

They just extended voting hours at a Mexican supermarket to 10 pm.  Close to 1000 people in line.  If you have a panic button GOP, find it.

Raston just now.

Don't think it really is that many, however it does illustrate a point.  Not sure if he is trolling though.  He might be.

[JerryArkansas]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters.

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

You are also way, way, way off on Nevada this week. I don't care about alleged L2 data. The raw numbers suggest overwhelmingly that the Republicans have made significant inroads on the early vote vs. 2012, erasing a 8% deficit from 2012 to about 3.5% this year. Keep in mind, they already shaved a point off of the D margin from 2012 in Week 1.

2016: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
2012: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2503

They have to win by at least 7 to have any chance.  Sorry to burst your damn bubble.

And the raw data doesn't favor your side either, unless you look through the lens of derangement, which you seem to be doing.

[JerryArkansas]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Ralston says the 71k edge from 2012 could be matched. Assume it's locked on the presidential side.

What's odd for me is that he's been more positive for CCM than he was for Berkeley. Why? Heller still managed to win despite that margin to overcome.

Candidate Quality.  Heck got less votes than Romney, yet still won.  Berkeley was just horrible.

[JerryArkansas]

We've crossed the 40 million threshold! Total votes now at 40,291,635 (87.2% of 2012 early vote, 31.3% of total 2012 vote).

Below is the state-by-state breakdown. The election is already about 3/4 over in Nevada and 2/3 over in AZ and FL.

State : 2016 Advance Vote / 2012 Total Vote = Percentage
USA   40,291,635   /   128,925,332   =   31.25%
NV   767,415   /   1,014,918   =   75.61%
TN   1,675,679   /   2,458,577   =   68.16%
AZ   1,560,159   /   2,298,802   =   67.87%
FL   5,731,761   /   8,474,134   =   67.64%
NC   2,892,090   /   4,493,301   =   64.36%
GA   2,372,403   /   3,897,839   =   60.86%
CO   1,553,325   /   2,569,516   =   60.45%
OR   1,054,056   /   1,775,995   =   59.35%
MT   272,680   /   483,932   =   56.35%
TX   4,497,431   /   7,991,197   =   56.28%
WA   1,694,344   /   3,125,516   =   54.21%
UT   480,356   /   1,017,401   =   47.21%
AR   501,452   /   1,069,468   =   46.89%
NM   359,980   /   783,758   =   45.93%
IA   565,393   /   1,574,738   =   35.90%
MD   967,410   /   2,697,018   =   35.87%
ND   109,767   /   321,072   =   34.19%
KS   375,858   /   1,158,833   =   32.43%
CA   4,193,725   /   13,015,298   =   32.22%
ME   216,974   /   711,053   =   30.51%
DC   82,826   /   292,992   =   28.27%
WV   183,920   /   670,438   =   27.43%
ID   175,132   /   652,274   =   26.85%
LA   521,325   /   1,994,065   =   26.14%
IN   637,706   /   2,623,541   =   24.31%
IL   1,260,208   /   5,241,179   =   24.04%
WI   685,644   /   3,063,064   =   22.38%
MA   700,000   /   3,161,215   =   22.14%
SD   78,635   /   363,815   =   21.61%
NE   170,623   /   790,662   =   21.58%
HI   91,400   /   434,539   =   21.03%
SC   400,190   /   1,964,118   =   20.38%
OH   1,054,912   /   5,580,715   =   18.90%
MI   854,921   /   4,722,988   =   18.10%
WY   40,332   /   247,026   =   16.33%
VT   44,968   /   297,247   =   15.13%
OK   197,191   /   1,334,872   =   14.77%
MN   415,986   /   2,925,920   =   14.22%
AK   40,372   /   297,625   =   13.56%
VA   431,680   /   3,847,243   =   11.22%
DE   22,387   /   413,890   =   5.41%
NJ   172,013   /   3,638,499   =   4.73%
KY   73,335   /   1,796,832   =   4.08%
RI   16,793   /   444,668   =   3.78%
NH   25,809   /   708,399   =   3.64%
MO   55,503   /   2,757,323   =   2.01%
MS   13,167   /   1,285,584   =   1.02%
AL   2,399   /   2,070,327   =   0.12%
CT   0   /   1,558,132   =   0.00%
NY   0   /   7,071,734   =   0.00%
PA   0   /   5,742,040   =   0.00%

Funny how some states are ahead of the so-called "all-mail states" (CO, WA, OR) ...

Most of these don't force you to mail a ballot in until election day. 

[JerryArkansas]

The cherrypicking is unreal.

Absentee voting in Michigan has always heavily favored Republicans and Democrats win on the election day vote.

Keeep ignoring the fact that Black voters in Detroit / FL / NC and other places aren't coming out.
A 33% decline compared to 2012 doesn't happen by accident, while the rest of the state has seen increases.

Population loss Detroit, NC voter suppression.  Florida Blacks are turning out at higher rates than 2012, however they are obscured by the rise in other groups.

[JerryArkansas]

A note to get away from the Tender bantering, in GA 23859 more African Americans have voted than at this point in 2012.

[JerryArkansas]

Absolute numbers matter if the increases in the white early vote are mostly just election day cannibalization, which looks incredible likely.

Mkay ... and do you think the Blacks will suddenly turn out in full force on election day or what ?

That's not how it works.

Yet what you say isn't how it works as well.  Just because you don't like Hillary doesn't mean you need to keep throwing sh**t all over this thread. 

[JerryArkansas]

Dem advantage in Duval up over 3,000 votes!

DEM 124,058
REP 121,027
OTH 47,472

Would you mind providing the source for this? The only one I have is the one below and it's not showing that yet and I'd like to check on my county - St. Johns.

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

http://www.duvalelections.com/Election-Information/2016-General-Voter-Turnout

Looks like it's up to a 3,500 advantage now, less than an hour later.

You're right! It keeps growing.

There were about 410,000 total votes in Duval County in 2012 (Romney had about 212,000 votes, Obama had about 197,000 votes). So far, Duval County has over 295,000 votes in this year. Even accounting for some growth/higher turnout, that's still over 50% of the total vote in already... probably closer to 70%.

Same thing in Texas.  The largest County in south Texas, Hidalgo is already at 100% of 2012 total turnout before election day.  All 15 largest counties are at or above 80% of 2012 total turnout.

[JerryArkansas]

now the NC GOP adds insult to injury and brags about their suppression victory.


https://twitter.com/RaleighReporter/status/795669824135430145



record numbers in MN

http://www.twincities.com/2016/11/07/wowsa-a-record-busting-568196-ballots-already-accepted-in-minnesota/

Yup, Trump takes NC because R's suppressed early voting for AA. Was a must win state for Trump. Looking good there.

Disgusting and un-American. You should be ashamed of yourself. Don't worry. The educated vote will swing and AAs will turn out on ED. You will lose the state despite your nasty celebration.

Call it what you want but anyone who wants can show up and vote tomorrow who is a citizen. Trump will carry NC tomorrow and win the election, prepare for depression to set in around 11 PM tomorrow night hehe

Just hope hell is warm enough for your cold heart.  Also Racist Republicans, they just can't help themselves from being giddy about oppressing African Americans.

[JerryArkansas]

Interesting ...

The electorate in CO so far (1.9 million ballots returned) is much older than the one in 2012:

http://magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Magellan-Strategies-Colorado-Ballots-Returned-Report-November-7th-2016.pdf

18-34 y/o: 18.3% vs. 23.1% in 2012
65+: 28.8% vs. 21.1% in 2012

Yet R turnout is down 2%?

Don't disrupt his line of thought.

[JerryArkansas]

Colorado Update


GOP takes the lead this weekend and leads 35.2%-34.8%. At this point in time in 2014, the GOP had a lead of 110,000 ballots. 56.6% of all ballots have been returned

As of Sunday - 2016 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  645,020 (446,448)
Republicans  652,380 (558,966)
Independent 527,706 (359,496)

TOTAL 1,852,029 (1,379,562)

Dem turnout up 44%
Rethuglican turnout up 17%
Independent turnout up 47%

Total turnout up 34%

why compare to 2014 and not 2012?
Dems dont turn out for midterms

Because dems kept the governorship in 2014.

And it is the only year that had all mail.

[JerryArkansas]

If 135,000,000 people do vote, what turnout % would that be of eligible voters?

I know it would be 67% of registered voters.

[JerryArkansas]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  3m3 minutes ago
Well, Clinton might have pulled off Ohio. #Earlyvote change from 2012
Cuyahoga +1,052 (+0.4%)
Franklin +22,522 (+10.2%)

How does it compare in % terms?

What do you mean, that is the change from 2012 final total for absentee and early voting.

[JerryArkansas]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  3m3 minutes ago
Well, Clinton might have pulled off Ohio. #Earlyvote change from 2012
Cuyahoga +1,052 (+0.4%)
Franklin +22,522 (+10.2%)

How does it compare in % terms?

Also he fails to mention them as comparison to the state as a whole or using party registration returns. This guy is predicting a Clinton win in Iowa, a state they have already given up on

He didn't predict anything.  But thanks for trying to discredit someone who just posts numbers.  Sorry they aren't what you want.