absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[fldemfunds]

From previous thread:

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THIS IS WHAT I HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR WEEKS. I am glad Schale is finally catching on. This isn't 2012. Dems don't need to have a 6 point lead to win by 1 anymore. Turnout by voter registration is now a lot closer to the actual vote totals than previously because of the sorting effect. Including NPAs and HRC has a significant lead in actual votes cast.

[fldemfunds]

538 isn't gospel everyone.

[fldemfunds]

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  4m4 minutes ago Florida, USA
Had this hunch that the GOP FL early vote numbers were a bit inflated by some old N. FL Dems who were Dem EV voters in 12, but switched 1/

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  1m1 minute ago Florida, USA
Turns out almost 50k of GOP EV in 16 were Dem EV in 12. I'd be surprised if more than 1-2k of them had voted Dem since 1964 or 76. 2/2

That means we need 50K less of a lead than Obama in 2012 to win FL, even taking into account Cubans swinging our way and non-affiliated Puerto Ricans voting Democratic

Doesn't it actually work out to 100k less?

Let's say in 2012 there were (totally making up these numbers) 2.0 million Dems and 1.9 million Reps voting early, or +100K Dems.

And if all of them also voted early in 2016, then the margin would now be tied at 1.95M Dems and Reps each.

So 2016 Dems would look like they were running 100K behind the 2012 margin when in fact they were even.

Yo seriously. Can you all just read my post history? This is literally what's happening. Estimates of the party switching are anywhere from 200k-400k (Schale indicated 400k via tweet the other day after FINALLY acknowledging the structural assumptions being made based on past elections).

[fldemfunds]

Florida - C+5 or more. It's going to be called early. Even if you assume both Trump and HRC are getting 90% of their respective votes each, NPAs break towards democratic candidates by 10-20% in FL. There are also significantly more NPAs this cycle.

If Democrats go into election day with a voter reg turnout advantage of 2-3 points, she may be approach 7-10 point territory depending on turnout on election day.

[fldemfunds]

Since everyone posts Schale's stuff. Here's an example of why his analysis is fundamentally incomplete:

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So based strictly on this, he asserts Dems have a 29k voter advantage for the day. He literally disregards 23% of the electorate. If NPAs are going to Hillary 55-45, you add another 3-4k votes on the margin in just these three counties on just this day.

Across the state 5 million people have voted

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55-45 split of NPAs looks like this:

Dems: 2,359,322 (50.7%)
Reps: 2,294,284 (49.3%)
Total: 4,653,606

This is with 4 days left of early voting and assuming uniform ticket voting (ie both candidates get 100% of their own vote or swap the same percentage). I also think the NPA split will be closer to 60-40 to be honest. Democrats are likely going into election day with a 3-4 lead.

[fldemfunds]

Democrats have closed the gap again in Florida yesterday and the difference is now less than 2k from 12k

But they won it 43-40 in 2012...

With Dixiecrats in the mix. Many of them have switched reg since 2012.

you don't know that for a fact

OK, explain to me why so many (overwhelmingly white) Dems have switched reg in the interim. Iĺl wait.

i don't know but you don't know as well. who knows how many democrats didn't switch their registration for ages and are voting republican? you are just guessing, skewing the news so they can fit your narrative. but that's kind of worse. landing on election night will only come harder.

We (people on democratic campaigns) have access to voter reg data and history.

[fldemfunds]

As a Florida insider, hrc has won Florida

[fldemfunds]

Comparing to 2012 does not make sense. About 50-55% of new registrants have been non white since 2012. And a bunch of republican voting democrats switched parties. Hrc is probably up 4-4.5 with yesterday's numbers. I think today pushes it to 5+

[fldemfunds]

If HRC wins FL by 6+, Rubio probably toast.

[fldemfunds]

Can someone explain, why you think Florida is in Hillary's pocket??

2012: D 42.9%, R 39.1%, Other 18.1%,         total Dems +170k
2016: D 39.6%, R 39.1%, Other 18.9%,         total Dems   +32k
(today is not included)

I took date from http://www.electproject.org/

Why is so good? Yes, I know many Dixies switched to Reps. Other is more Clinton-friendly. But how does this data implies that Florida is gone for Trump? Probably slightly lean D, but gone?

No entiendo nada

Robby Mook did say he believes Clinton is ahead by about 170k in FL. This point in 2012, he said the Obama campaign thought they were down 15k. I don't believe it's in the bag for Clinton but it's definitely looking good.

As for the numbers: if Schale's claim is correct and 50 K Rep EV this year were Dem EV in 2012, than the actual Dem advantage in 2012 was really just +70 K.

Add to that the increase in unaffiliated, Hispanic, and female voting-- which is reflected in the HUGE edge Clinton has consistently had in polls of early voters-- and you can very easily see how Clinton got up to a +170K lead... and I think he said that before yesterday's voting?

Lastly, as Schale has noted, the Dems still have a +70K edge in ballots not yet returned, and have turned out significantly more low propensity voters.

Putting it all together (numbers + campaign strategy), and my best guess is that Clinton will win Florida by at least 3 points.

It was 50k dems switching in just one or two North Florida counties I believe is what the Schale number specifically referenced..

[fldemfunds]

Soooo....after those EV numbers for Florida....what are Hillary's chances of winning it?

It's been over since Wednesday

[fldemfunds]

Dems doubled republicans up yesterday in florida ev

[fldemfunds]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/795617730443542531

Nc among those who have voted, c+12
Fl, c+4