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| |-+  2016 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
| | |-+  FL/NV/PA/AZ-CNN: Rubio +1, Heck +2, McGinty +5, McCain +13
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Author Topic: FL/NV/PA/AZ-CNN: Rubio +1, Heck +2, McGinty +5, McCain +13  (Read 411 times)
Castro
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« on: November 02, 2016, 11:36:16 am »
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FL: Rubio 49%, Murphy 48%
NV: Heck 49, Cortez-Masto 47%
PA: McGinty 51, Toomey 46%
AZ: McCain 52, Kirkpatrick 39%

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The CNN/ORC polls were conducted by telephone Oct. 27-Nov. 1. Results reflect interviews with 867 registered voters and 769 likely voters in Arizona, 884 registered voters and 773 likely voters in Florida, 860 registered voters and 790 likely voters in Nevada and 917 registered voters and 799 likely voters in Pennsylvania. Results among likely voters have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 percentage points in each state.

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/02/politics/polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-florida-pennsylvania-nevada-arizona/index.html
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2016, 11:37:27 am »
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Rubio, McGinty and McCain will win. NV will go down to the wire.
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Even if you don't agree with the women stuff, it's really hard to argue that NH is still a competitive swing state. And after 2016 (when Kelly Ayotte and Donald Trump lose the state, despite a very close presidential race and Republicans holding the Senate), this will become clear to you as well, Kingpoleon.

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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2016, 11:39:02 am »
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Rubio, McGinty and McCain will win. NV will go down to the wire.

The massive r bias in the nv cnn poll, if Heck is underperforming Trump its quite bad news for him
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Castro
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2016, 11:40:14 am »
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Rubio, McGinty and McCain will win. NV will go down to the wire.

The massive r bias in the nv cnn poll, if Heck is underperforming Trump its quite bad news for him

The NV poll just seems very junky in general, I wouldn't try to take any meaning from it.
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2016, 11:43:41 am »
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Rubio, McGinty and McCain will win. NV will go down to the wire.

The massive r bias in the nv cnn poll, if Heck is underperforming Trump its quite bad news for him

It's one poll. When you look at the polling average, the race is still very competitive. (not xingkerui)
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Even if you don't agree with the women stuff, it's really hard to argue that NH is still a competitive swing state. And after 2016 (when Kelly Ayotte and Donald Trump lose the state, despite a very close presidential race and Republicans holding the Senate), this will become clear to you as well, Kingpoleon.

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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2016, 11:44:14 am »
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It's been a long time since I saw Toomey ahead in any poll. Hack McGinty may just pull this off!
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For England, James?

No. For me.
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2016, 11:59:56 am »
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If Quinnipiac doesn't show Toomey ahead, he's done.
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2016, 12:10:47 pm »
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If a Trump +6 poll only shows Heck up by 2, he's done. Democrats have 48 seats in the bag, and PA looks like it might be number 49.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2016, 12:19:23 pm »

New Poll: Florida Senator by CNN/ORC on 2016-11-01

Summary: D: 48%, R: 49%, I: 0%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2016, 12:20:45 pm »

New Poll: Arizona Senator by CNN/ORC on 2016-11-01

Summary: D: 41%, R: 54%, I: 1%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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DavidB.
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2016, 12:23:31 pm »
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I'm the worst R pessimist on this forum, but Rubio really isn't going to overperform Trump by only 2.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2016, 12:23:52 pm »

New Poll: Nevada Senator by CNN/ORC on 2016-11-01

Summary: D: 47%, R: 49%, I: 0%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2016, 12:25:04 pm »

New Poll: Pennsylvania Senator by CNN/ORC on 2016-11-01

Summary: D: 51%, R: 46%, I: 1%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Shadows
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2016, 02:11:53 pm »
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I think Rubio will comfortably win at 4-5% & NV is a pure toss-up.

The NV poll has Trump at +6% which is way too generous.
FL has Clinton at +2%, I think Trump is ahead by 1-2% now at FL.

In the end I think Masto will win NV by 1-2% in a razor thin margin. Mcginty has got this.

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AMA IL TUO PRESIDENTE!
Antonio V
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2016, 02:20:36 pm »
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I doubt CCM is outperforming Clinton, but if she stays close enough, she should win this.
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Our numbers are dwindling. Our words are confused.
Some of them have been twisted by the enemy
until they can no longer be recognized.

Now what is wrong, or false, in what we have said?
Just some parts, or everything?
On whom can we still rely? Are we survivors, cast
away by the current? Will we be left behind,
no longer understanding anyone and being understood by no one?
Must we rely on luck?

This is what you ask. Expect
no answer but your own.


Bertolt Brecht
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