NYT/CBS National: Clinton +3
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Author Topic: NYT/CBS National: Clinton +3  (Read 2008 times)
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Junior Chimp
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« on: November 03, 2016, 06:08:54 AM »
Clinton: 45%
Trump: 42%
Johnson: 5%
Stein: 2%
https://mobile.twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/794133850305740800
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jaichind
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2016, 06:17:19 AM »
Seems like all the national polls are converging toward a 2-3 lead for Clinton.  If so the current 538 map should be pretty accurate on what that means.  Trump carries Romney states minus NC plus OH IA ME2 with NC FL NV all could go either way and decided within 1%.  Trump comes close but does not win.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2016, 06:35:44 AM »
Any change since their last poll?  I need to know if I must adjust my algorithms n' such.   
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Simfan34
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2016, 06:37:33 AM »
Quote from: HokeyDood on November 03, 2016, 06:35:44 AM
Any change since their last poll?  I need to know if I must adjust my algorithms n' such.   

Previous poll was Clinton +4.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2016, 06:40:22 AM »
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/five-days-to-go-the-presidential-race-tightens-cbsnyt-poll/
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2016, 06:42:31 AM »

Note that Trump's in 4th place among blacks.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2016, 06:43:24 AM »
Quote from: Simfan34 on November 03, 2016, 06:37:33 AM
Quote from: HokeyDood on November 03, 2016, 06:35:44 AM
Any change since their last poll?  I need to know if I must adjust my algorithms n' such.   

Previous poll was Clinton +4.

Previous poll was +9 but it was done by NBC.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2016, 07:08:44 AM »
If Clinton is even WINNING college-educated whites then this is way more than a 3pt race, much less winning them by more than 5.  This is by far the demographic that has the highest turnout. 

Writing is on the wall, Donald.  They can adjust their LV screens all they want to have their horserace narrative, but this isn't going to be close.

2000 - FLORIDA.  FLORIDA.  FLORIDA.

2004 - OHIO.  OHIO.  OHIO. 

2008 - I can see Russia from my house!

2012 - MATH.  MATH.  MATH.

2016 - DEMOGRAPHICS.  DEMOGRAPHICS.  DEMOGRAPHICS. 
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2016, 07:15:40 AM »
Hey, America?
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2016, 07:17:55 AM »



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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2016, 07:32:23 AM »
This one gave one big Clinton poll last time out, now it's reverted to its earlier numbers.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2016, 07:40:11 AM »
« Edited: November 03, 2016, 07:45:01 AM by Happy Sad Trumpista »
Quote from: Speed of Sound on November 03, 2016, 07:32:23 AM
This one gave one big Clinton poll last time out, now it's reverted to its earlier numbers.

No, C+9 was not an huge outlier. It was about right. Trump is SUUUURGING Smiley
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2016, 07:44:05 AM »
Quote from: Happy Sad Trumpista on November 03, 2016, 07:40:11 AM
Quote from: Speed of Sound on November 03, 2016, 07:32:23 AM
This one gave one big Clinton poll last time out, now it's reverted to its earlier numbers.

No, C+9 was not an huge outlier. It was about right. Trump is SUUUURGING Smiley

The +9 was also NBC with CBS's name slapped on it. This is more in line with their actual polling results.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2016, 07:46:30 AM »
Quote from: Fusionmunster on November 03, 2016, 07:44:05 AM
Quote from: Happy Sad Trumpista on November 03, 2016, 07:40:11 AM
Quote from: Speed of Sound on November 03, 2016, 07:32:23 AM
This one gave one big Clinton poll last time out, now it's reverted to its earlier numbers.

No, C+9 was not an huge outlier. It was about right. Trump is SUUUURGING Smiley

The +9 was also NBC with CBS's name slapped on it. This is more in line with their actual polling results.

So you're saying that the race is the same as two weeks ago? OK, all right!
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afleitch
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2016, 07:56:56 AM »

Plugging that into the state flip thing on 538, and using the white college split, it would be 47.8 Clinton, 39.3 Trump flipping NC, GA and NE-2. With white gender split it's 47.0 Clinton 40.3 Trump with NC flipping.
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Rand
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« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2016, 08:09:42 AM »
Great poll! Trump comes up short again!
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win win
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« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2016, 08:12:52 AM »
it's the new york times
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2016, 08:25:00 AM »

So?  They have a very good polling record that is independent of the political leanings of the newspaper.  (And to be even-handed here, the same is true of Fox News polling.)
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #18 on: November 03, 2016, 08:26:08 AM »

With Jill in second, nice.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #19 on: November 03, 2016, 09:14:22 AM »
If trump really is only up 1 point up with white women, this election really is over.
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TC 25
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« Reply #20 on: November 03, 2016, 10:19:31 AM »
2 percent of the black vote?  I know the estimates of 20-25 percent are ridiculous but Trump gets at least 10.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2016, 10:20:42 AM »
Quote from: TC 25 on November 03, 2016, 10:19:31 AM
2 percent of the black vote?  I know the estimates of 20-25 percent are ridiculous but Trump gets at least 10.

To be honest, I'll be shocked if he's in double digits.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2016, 10:20:48 AM »
Quote from: TC 25 on November 03, 2016, 10:19:31 AM
2 percent of the black vote?  I know the estimates of 20-25 percent are ridiculous but Trump gets at least 10.

6% is stretching it. Plus I can easily see him down with white women. Clinton has this.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2016, 11:16:25 AM »
This is a solid pollster. With this, NBC and Rand, were probably eyeing Clinton around 5-6 points. Better than 2012, less good than 2008
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2016, 11:26:01 AM »
Quote from: KingSweden on November 03, 2016, 11:16:25 AM
This is a solid pollster. With this, NBC and Rand, were probably eyeing Clinton around 5-6 points. Better than 2012, less good than 2008

The textbook definition of cherry-picking Shocked
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