NBC/WSJ/Marist: Trump +1 in GA, +5 in AZ, +9 in TX

[HillOfANight]

2-way

Arizona
Clinton 41
Trump 46

Georgia
Clinton 46
Trump 47

Early vote

Arizona
Clinton 44
Trump 47

Georgia
Clinton 46
Trump 48

Texas
Clinton 42
Trump 52

[Likely Voter]

The Kaine Spanish rally was announced Monday afternoon,  3 days after Comey letter . They also doubled their planned AZ buy after Comey  Campaigns poll every day.

AZ is still probably a long shot but my point was the clinton campaign are treating it as more in play than GA

[dspNY]

Latino vote in AZ: Clinton 59, Trump 24, Johnson 12, Stein 6

Clinton will get way more than 59% of AZ Latinos and Trump will be lucky to get 20%. I think the Latino split in AZ will be 74-20-6 (Clinton/Trump/3rd parties)

[Erich Maria Remarque]

2-way

Arizona
Clinton 41
Trump 46

Georgia
Clinton 46
Trump 47

Early vote

Arizona
Clinton 44
Trump 47

Georgia
Clinton 46
Trump 48

Texas
Clinton 42
Trump 52

Do you have a link to pdf/crosstabs?

[Ozymandias]

The Kaine Spanish rally was announced Monday afternoon,  3 days after Comey letter . They also doubled their planned AZ buy after Comey  Campaigns poll every day.

AZ is still probably a long shot but my point was the clinton campaign are treating it as more in play than GA

Agreed-- though I don't think it's that big a long shot.  

Seems to me like Clinton campaign thinks they have a better chance in AZ then in Iowa.

[HillOfANight]

2-way

Arizona
Clinton 41
Trump 46

Georgia
Clinton 46
Trump 47

Early vote

Arizona
Clinton 44
Trump 47

Georgia
Clinton 46
Trump 48

Texas
Clinton 42
Trump 52

Do you have a link to pdf/crosstabs?

That was from the article. Marist usually posts the details 1-2 days after http://maristpoll.marist.edu/

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Arizona President by Marist College on 2016-11-01

Summary: D: 40%, R: 45%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Georgia President by Marist College on 2016-11-01

Summary: D: 44%, R: 45%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Texas President by Marist College on 2016-11-01

Summary: D: 40%, R: 49%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[HillOfANight]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/new-poll-finds-close-race-in-georgia-1478206826
More details will be at Marist's site tomorrow, but WSJ has a few nuggets.

Georgia

Black (30%)
Clinton 89
Trump 5

White
Clinton 25
Trump 63

Hispanics in Arizona/Texas
Trump 24%

Arizona Whites
Trump +17 (McCain +19)

Texas Whites
Trump +48  (McCain +47)

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[Xing]

I highly doubt GA is more winnable than AZ.

[HillOfANight]

Consistently, live caller polls show a close race, with strong Johnson support. Landline polls show a strong Trump lead.

If the early voting were more diverse, I would believe it's a true tossup, but it's still probably Trump +5 at the end of the day.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

@RonBrownstein
This will matter: Per @mmurraypolitics HRC leads w/AZ Latinos by 40 in NBC/WSJ @maristpoll. In > sample @Univision AZ Latino poll, its +49.

[OneJ]

#BattlegroundTexas was fun.

Hill will get a higher Latino % (Latino Decisions), therefore making AZ closer than T+5. I think GA could turn out to be closer than many of us realize.

[IceSpear]

Flip AZ and GA and they look more plausible.. still, they're surprisingly not bad.

[Hammy]

I want to believe Georgia is this close, but this is too far removed from other recent polls to really be believable. Arizona and Texas look about right though.

[NOVA Green]

I could jump in and say that the polls of Texas are trash, but once again it looks like RV/LV screens here are creating significantly different scenarios, especially in some state with a high proportion of Latino voters (Just look at polls from Cali showing it anywhere between a C+15 and C+25 margin).

In the modern political era where the polling industry is under major stress to actually be able to contact real voters, it is not unexpected to see major outliers increase even among legit polling organizations.

How will Texas/Georgia/Arizona actually vote in November?

TX and AZ are arguably the biggest wildcards, namely as a result of a surge in Latino registration and turnout....

GA is a bit less likely to shift significantly, but there are a ton of people that don't pick up their cell-phones that are more likely to be Millennials and "minorities"....

I still think TX will end up 4-7 T, AZ Tossup (C+1), and GA 1-2T....

A bunch of the weird polling we are seeing this year is likely connected to how the traditional polling organizations have not yet been able to adapt to connect with actual voters as a result of a dramatic shift in technology and communication patterns over the past 10 years.

[psychprofessor]

Live caller polls from Q and Marist in GA have this as a 1 point race. This is without any direct contact from Clinton since February.

From the early vote, you can see a surge of Latino support, especially in Florida, Nevada, Arizona and Colorado. Expect Clinton to overperform her polls in those four states as most pollsters have an awful time gauging the Latino share of the electorate and Latino support for Clinton. For instance, Clinton is all but certain to get more than 59% of Latino support in Arizona.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Flip AZ and GA and they look more plausible.. still, they're surprisingly not bad.

[HillOfANight]

Live caller polls from Q and Marist in GA have this as a 1 point race. This is without any direct contact from Clinton since February.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/10/18/pro-clinton-super-pac-priorities-usa-to-start-georgia-television-campaign/

I see at least 1 PrioritiesUSA ad in Georgia once a day. Thinking perhaps the late ads are holding this to a close race, as other red states have pulled away. Then again, Georgia has not swung around that much this year, except the most recent robopolls.

[HillOfANight]

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/114-az-trump-up-by-5-points-ga-trump-and-clinton-competitive-tx-trump-leads-by-9-points/
Crosstabs are up.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/GAPolls/GA161030/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_Georgia_Tables%20of%20Likely%20Voters_November%202016.pdf#page=3

Georgia (2 way numbers). Trump only up 38 among whites vs usual 50 point margin.

White
Clinton 27
Trump 65

Black
Clinton 91
Trump 6

White men
Clinton 28
Trump 64

White women
Clinton 27 (lol)
Trump 66

[BaldEagle1991]

I guess no more Clinton surprises in GA, AZ, and TX.