Professor Lichtmann predicts Presidential Race for 2016

[Meclazine for Israel]

"Professor Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in every presidential election since 1984"......unveils his prediction for 2016.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/23/trump-is-headed-for-a-win-says-professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-outcomes-correctly/

"Donald Trump has made this the most difficult election to predict since 1984....."

Interestingly, the Professors' political factors heavily favoured a Republican win given the incumbents' performance and situation.

[Ebowed]

At least this means people will finally stop taking this fellow seriously.

[Ebsy]

At least this means people will finally stop taking this fellow seriously.

Yup.

[7,052,770]

If Hillary wins, he'll just change his interpretations some and say that the model worked.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

The Litchman test may be wrong for the 2nd time since its inception.

It was wrong in 2000, but that election was stolen.

[Blackacre]

The Litchman test may be wrong for the 2nd time since its inception.

It was wrong in 2000, but that election was stolen.

It has a perfect track record if it's simply used to predict the winner of the popular vote

[Ebowed]

The Litchman test may be wrong for the 2nd time since its inception.

It was wrong in 2000, but that election was stolen.

It has a perfect track record if it's simply used to predict the winner of the popular vote

Which is funny, since even the delusional Trumpists here are predicting he can only win the electoral college while Clinton wins the PV.

[SWE]

The keys don't even retroactively work: they predicted a Tilden victory in 1876, Cleveland in 1884, and Wilson in 1916.

[Kingpoleon]

Remember when he predicted the Hillary win and got a lot of praise?

[SWE]

Remember when he predicted the Hillary win and got a lot of praise?

No?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

At least this means people will finally stop taking this fellow seriously.

Yup.

Neither of you never read his book or even heard of him I'm sure, his merits aside.

I would have sat this one out if I were him, though. I'd literally just say "I dunno" and throw up my hands. The fact that he thought 1984 was a hard one to predict is a pretty clear signal that I need to do a bit more reading on that election, because I never thought Reagan's victory was a question .

[adrac]

His prediction hinges on Johnson finishing with 5+% of the national vote, which I am very skeptical of at this point.

[Kingpoleon]

Remember when he predicted the Hillary win and got a lot of praise?

No?

http://dailybruin.com/2016/08/15/experts-predict-clinton-win-during-hammer-museum-lecture-2/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Ebowed]

At least this means people will finally stop taking this fellow seriously.

Yup.

Neither of you never read his book or even heard of him I'm sure, his merits aside.

Uh, he comes up every election.  We've had numerous threads here and on AAD about his waffling predictions just this year.  We all know who he is.  He's like a slightly more coherent J.J. who gets his nonsense published.

And every year, we say the same thing: a set of 13 keys is in no way 'scientific', is in fact totally arbitrary, and has no bearing on the result of the election.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

The keys don't even retroactively work: they predicted a Tilden victory in 1876, Cleveland in 1884, and Wilson in 1916.

1876 was stolen, you forgot that. Source for the other two?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

At least this means people will finally stop taking this fellow seriously.

Yup.

Neither of you never read his book or even heard of him I'm sure, his merits aside.

Uh, he comes up every election.  We've had numerous threads here and on AAD about his waffling predictions just this year.  We all know who he is.  He's like a slightly more coherent J.J. who gets his nonsense published.

And every year, we say the same thing: a set of 13 keys is in no way 'scientific', is in fact totally arbitrary, and has no bearing on the result of the election.

This is the first time I've heard him referenced this whole campaign in the media, on here, or AAD (where I never post). I think the Lichtmanns, Nate Silvers, and other self-styled statisticians who predict these things are full of hooey (I've been waiting to use that word today, I won't lie. It's very festive sounding and these are hopeful times) and shouldn't be listened too at all.

[SWE]

Sanchez, he hasn't come up too much this year, but it was pretty ridiculous of you to assume that someone on a forum dedicated to US elections wouldn't have heard of him.

The keys don't even retroactively work: they predicted a Tilden victory in 1876, Cleveland in 1884, and Wilson in 1916.

1876 was stolen, you forgot that.

No, the winner of the election was made president.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

His book?

[Blackacre]

The keys don't even retroactively work: they predicted a Tilden victory in 1876, Cleveland in 1884, and Wilson in 1916.

Yes, they do, if you adjust his prediction to work for the popular vote and not the EC. Tilden in 1876 and Cleveland in 1884 both won the popular vote in their elections. Wilson won his election in 1916 in both the PV and the EC. If you meant to say he predicted Hughes in 1916, then that would have been his one and only error

[SWE]

The keys don't even retroactively work: they predicted a Tilden victory in 1876, Cleveland in 1884, and Wilson in 1916.

Yes, they do, if you adjust his prediction to work for the popular vote and not the EC. Tilden in 1876 and Cleveland in 1884 both won the popular vote in their elections. Wilson won his election in 1916 in both the PV and the EC. If you meant to say he predicted Hughes in 1916, then that would have been his one and only error

I'm aware that the keys are intended to count popular vote. The issue is, with the margins as close as they were in the three elections I referenced, the popular vote was almost certainly swung by suppression of the African American vote in the South.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

The keys don't even retroactively work: they predicted a Tilden victory in 1876, Cleveland in 1884, and Wilson in 1916.

Yes, they do, if you adjust his prediction to work for the popular vote and not the EC. Tilden in 1876 and Cleveland in 1884 both won the popular vote in their elections. Wilson won his election in 1916 in both the PV and the EC. If you meant to say he predicted Hughes in 1916, then that would have been his one and only error

I'm aware that the keys are intended to count popular vote. The issue is, with the margins as close as they were in the three elections I referenced, the popular vote was almost certainly swung by suppression of the African American vote in the South.

There are factors that the keys don't consider, and voter suppression is one of them.

[Maxwell]

2000 was the only election during the span of time between 1984-2012 that wasn't utterly predictable about a month away from election day.

[Nym90]

Johnson will get under 5 percent and thus his prediction will prove right, again, for the entirely wrong reason.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Oh no,

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/15/politics/allan-lichtman-professor-predicts-trump-impeachment-erin-burnett/index.html

Allan just predicted that Trump will be impeached before 4 years is up.

[Devout Centrist]

Oh no,

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/15/politics/allan-lichtman-professor-predicts-trump-impeachment-erin-burnett/index.html

Allan just predicted that Trump will be impeached before 4 years is up.

I wouldn't count on it. When you get one prediction right, you get cocky.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

At least this means people will finally stop taking this fellow seriously.

Yup.

Have you wiped the egg off your face yet?

Oh no,

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/15/politics/allan-lichtman-professor-predicts-trump-impeachment-erin-burnett/index.html

Allan just predicted that Trump will be impeached before 4 years is up.

I wouldn't count on it. When you get one prediction right, you get cocky.

Oh, they won't impeach him, they'll literally kill him. I've been predicting that long before the election and I believe it now more than ever judging by how the demonstrators have been acting.