PA - Gravis: Clinton +1, +2 (h2h)
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Author Topic: PA - Gravis: Clinton +1, +2 (h2h)  (Read 2801 times)
Ozymandias
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« on: November 03, 2016, 07:07:21 PM »
« edited: November 04, 2016, 08:07:38 PM by Ozymandias »
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Gravis_PA_November_3rd_2016.pdf

Clinton - 47
Trump - 46
Johnson - 3
Stein - 2

HEAD-TO-HEAD

Clinton - 51
Trump - 49

10/31, 2606 RV, 1.9% MOE

EDIT: sorry didn't realize there was more than 1 Gravis poll or I would have posted both at once.

UPDATE:
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2016, 07:07:50 PM »
THank god for Florida and North Carolina.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2016, 07:08:55 PM »
Called it. Will be firmly in Trump's column after a few more days of the FBI/Clinton Foundation stories.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2016, 07:09:36 PM »
Polls in PA have been tightening, and I never thought Clinton would win it by double digits, but she should hold on.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2016, 07:10:38 PM »
Quote from: Andrea Beaumont on November 03, 2016, 07:08:55 PM
Called it. Will be firmly in Trump's column after a few more days of the FBI/Clinton Foundation stories.

It is Gravis.
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dspNY
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2016, 07:18:43 PM »
Quote from: Ozymandias on November 03, 2016, 07:07:21 PM
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Gravis_PA_November_3rd_2016.pdf

Clinton - 47
Trump - 46
Johnson - 3
Stein - 2

HEAD-TO-HEAD

Clinton - 51
Trump - 49

10/31, 2606 RV, 1.9% MOE

EDIT: sorry didn't realize there was more than 1 Gravis poll or I would have posted both at once.

Taken at the height of Comeygate. Now we're a few days later. And no, PA won't vote to the right of FL. Clinton's at least +5 in PA
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PollsDontLie
nirvanayoda
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2016, 07:19:20 PM »
Quote from: Yank2133 on November 03, 2016, 07:10:38 PM
Quote from: Andrea Beaumont on November 03, 2016, 07:08:55 PM
Called it. Will be firmly in Trump's column after a few more days of the FBI/Clinton Foundation stories.

It is Gravis.

Graves hasn't been particularly slanted toward Trump.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2016, 07:20:30 PM »
Quote from: Yank2133 on November 03, 2016, 07:10:38 PM
Quote from: Andrea Beaumont on November 03, 2016, 07:08:55 PM
Called it. Will be firmly in Trump's column after a few more days of the FBI/Clinton Foundation stories.

It is Gravis.

Yet everyone is praising the FL poll.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2016, 07:20:50 PM »
Quote from: nirvanayoda on November 03, 2016, 07:19:20 PM
Quote from: Yank2133 on November 03, 2016, 07:10:38 PM
Quote from: Andrea Beaumont on November 03, 2016, 07:08:55 PM
Called it. Will be firmly in Trump's column after a few more days of the FBI/Clinton Foundation stories.

It is Gravis.

Graves hasn't been particularly slanted toward Trump.

Its more to do with the fact that Gravis just stinks. No bias, just has no idea how to accurately poll a race.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2016, 07:23:22 PM »
Quote from: Andrea Beaumont on November 03, 2016, 07:20:30 PM
Quote from: Yank2133 on November 03, 2016, 07:10:38 PM
Quote from: Andrea Beaumont on November 03, 2016, 07:08:55 PM
Called it. Will be firmly in Trump's column after a few more days of the FBI/Clinton Foundation stories.

It is Gravis.

Yet everyone is praising the FL poll.

Not me.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2016, 07:23:50 PM »
Certainly not a good result, but it is true that a single day poll in the middle of the Comey thing has probably skewed it. Especially with the whole crew finishing the campaign there, they should be alright.
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Hammy
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« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2016, 07:24:54 PM »
Quote from: Andrea Beaumont on November 03, 2016, 07:20:30 PM
Quote from: Yank2133 on November 03, 2016, 07:10:38 PM
Quote from: Andrea Beaumont on November 03, 2016, 07:08:55 PM
Called it. Will be firmly in Trump's column after a few more days of the FBI/Clinton Foundation stories.

It is Gravis.

Yet everyone is praising the FL poll.

Florida's poll is consistent with others recently. Similar to weather models (my other hobby) there's usually something to it when there's widespread agreement vs outliers on either side.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2016, 07:26:20 PM »
Dear God, guys. Gravis. GRAVIS.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2016, 07:27:06 PM »
Trump will rack up insane margins in the northeastern and western parts of the state, but it won't be enough.  The Philly burbs will carry the state for Clinton.
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PollsDontLie
nirvanayoda
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2016, 07:28:28 PM »
I read on another forum that this is RV, not LV. If true, this has limited value.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2016, 07:34:11 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2016, 07:37:50 PM by GeorgiaModerate »
Quote from: nirvanayoda on November 03, 2016, 07:28:28 PM
I read on another forum that this is RV, not LV. If true, this has limited value.

Ordinarily I would agree with you, but lately I've been wondering if many of the LV screens are missing a lot of normally unlikely voters.  If so, then an RV poll is probably no worse than the LV polls.
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win win
dxu8888
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« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2016, 07:37:05 PM »
tremendous result
between this and the NH polls, a big day for mr trump
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2016, 07:41:20 PM »
Quote from: nirvanayoda on November 03, 2016, 07:28:28 PM
I read on another forum that this is RV, not LV.

That's nice, but you could have just read the opening post:
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PollsDontLie
nirvanayoda
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« Reply #18 on: November 03, 2016, 07:48:29 PM »
Quote from: Ozymandias on November 03, 2016, 07:41:20 PM
Quote from: nirvanayoda on November 03, 2016, 07:28:28 PM
I read on another forum that this is RV, not LV.

That's nice, but you could have just read the opening post:


I'm not sure it was there when I first looked at this post. If I missed it, my bad.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #19 on: November 03, 2016, 07:52:24 PM »
When not even Gravis has Trump up in PA!
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #20 on: November 03, 2016, 08:28:08 PM »
Er, the comments in this thread aren't exactly consistent with the ones in the Gravis FL thread. Gravis is sh**t regardless of whether its numbers look plausible or not - I thought this was a long-standing forum consensus?
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2016, 08:39:26 PM »
polling in RV 5 days before an election?
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Hammy
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« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2016, 08:46:52 PM »
Quote from: Phony Moderate on November 03, 2016, 08:28:08 PM
Er, the comments in this thread aren't exactly consistent with the ones in the Gravis FL thread. Gravis is sh**t regardless of whether its numbers look plausible or not - I thought this was a long-standing forum consensus?

Yes, but with an asterisk--hurricane tracking is my primary hobby, and sometimes there are forecast models with an awful history that tend to be outliers, sometimes by hundreds of miles. But sometimes, the models line up with the consensus and just happen to be lucky--it's entirely possible the situation with the Gravis Florida poll is this--given that it lines up with three other polls taken in the last two days.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2016, 08:54:49 PM »
Adjusted by 538 from Clinton +1 to a Clinton +2.
And after entering it into their model, Clinton still has an approx 76% chance of winning PA.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2016, 09:41:51 PM »
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