GA-Opinion Savvy: Trump +4

[HillOfANight]

http://opinionsavvy.com/2016/11/04/poll-trump-ahead-in-georgia-by-four/

Trump - 49% (50)
Clinton - 45% (46)
Johnson - 6% (3)

Clinton is still winning the early vote: 51% to 43%
Trump wins day-of voters: 57% to 34%

Trump wins 65% of white voters; Clinton wins 80% of black voters

[HillOfANight]

Georgia has been like this the whole cycle, tie to +6, with no real correlation with national numbers.

New Hampshire is overreacting to the Comey letter.

[HillOfANight]

Possible evidence for a recent Clinton surge in Georgia?

Clinton's 8-point EV lead with 59% of Opinion Savvy poll is MUCH different than 6-point Trump EV lead that Survey USA found in 30% of their sample a few days ago.

SurveyUSA always has junky crosstabs. Both of these are landline pollsters. OpinionSavvy used to post the details, but got mocked, and now just release the topline.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.surveyusa.com/methodology.html

SurveyUSA is the first research company to appreciate that opinion research can be made more affordable, more consistent and in some ways more accurate by eliminating the single largest cost of conducting research, and a possible source of bias: the human interviewer.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=874ea794-a227-44a0-a81b-bdc09dd92fac

Respondents reachable on a home telephone (64% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (36% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.