Why do people think New Mexico is in play?

[Xing]

It's about 45% Latino, Obama won it by double digits both times. Yes, Gary Johnson could get a decent amount of the vote, but do people really think he's going to get 15%? If so, why are they assuming that all or nearly all of those will be votes from Democrats? I'd sooner assume that a lot of Johnson voters in New Mexico are NeverTrumpers, and that more Republicans will vote for him. The idea of Trump winning here is even more absurd to me than the idea of him winning Nevada.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Because it voted Bush in 2004... and people tend to forget the rest.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

New Hampshire and Ohio are like this too. Clinton is obviously winning both, but everyone likes a horserace, I guess.

[ApatheticAustrian]

cause no one reputable has effing polled it for some time.

[Mehmentum]

A junk poll found it to be a single digit race, then Trump ran with it and started campaigning in the state.  That turned people's heads and got them wondering 'Is New Mexico in play?'.

Its not.  Its really, really, not.  It's like the last state that you'd expect to be in play for Trump.

[SWE]

Because of #analysis.

[Mallow]

New Hampshire and Ohio are like this too. Clinton is obviously winning both, but everyone likes a horserace, I guess.

New Mexico is not even remotely in the same category as OH and NH. OH is a tossup or lean Trump state this cycle, and NH is more uncertain, but may be pretty close. NM is not in play.

A better comparison to NM would be OR and CT. Only people with a complete disregard for reality think they're actually in play.

[Maxwell]

because they're dumb about this and don't know how New Mexico works.

also JOHNSONS THE FORMER GOVERNOR SO HE MUST GET 20% despite the fact that he polled very well there in 2012 and got a magnificent... 2%.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Junk polls.

That said, New Mexico isn't a state where it's plausible to expect Hispanics to swing towards Clinton because a very large proportion of Hispanics in New Mexico are descendants of families who have lived in New Mexico since the 17th or the 18th Century. Most "Hispanos" no longer speak Spanish and tend to dislike Mexican immigrants and are no different than White people in this regard. Although they're a rock-solid Democratic constituency for reasons relating to machine politics and working class identity, for these very reasons, there's room for improvement here.

It's work keeping in mind that, in 2014, Hispanos in the San Luis Valley swung sharply against Udall for reasons that appear to relate to their love of firearms. There was no such swing in Denver, where Mexican-Americans live. People who conflate Hispanos and Mexicans are very, very ignorant and have no business writing about politics in Colorado or New Mexico imo.

[Hammy]

Because Bush, despite forgetting he was actually somewhat liked with Hispanics (which Trump certainly isn't.)

[Joe Republic]

A junk poll found it to be a single digit race, then Trump ran with it and started campaigning in the state.  That turned people's heads and got them wondering 'Is New Mexico in play?'.

Its not.  Its really, really, not.  It's like the last state that you'd expect to be in play for Trump.

This.  Trump shows up to campaign there and therefore it's a battleground state, you know, because Trump and his team are experts at running a presidential campaign.