Who will win Iowa and why?

[Spark]

I have a bad feeling about this state going for Clinton.

My own prediction is:

Trump 51
Clinton 48

[°Leprechaun]

60% + chance Trump

[pbrower2a]

I have seen nothing so far this year to suggest that Hillary Clinton will win Iowa.

Iowa went to Democrats on ethanol subsidies.

Iowa could be the new West Virginia.

[Spark]

I have seen nothing so far this year to suggest that Hillary Clinton will win Iowa.

Iowa went to Democrats on ethanol subsidies.

Iowa could be the new West Virginia Missouri.

[Hammy]

I have a bad feeling about this state going for Clinton.

Of the swing states, this is the one you should feel most confident about Trump winning--Republicans have been up here since summer 2015, except for a few months leading up to the conventions this year.

[Spark]

I have a bad feeling about this state going for Clinton.

Of the swing states, this is the one you should feel most confident about Trump winning--Republicans have been up here since summer 2015, except for a few months leading up to the conventions this year.

I think it is dubious and Iowa's behavior can be a bit strange.

[Maxwell]

Trump narrowly, but I feel like things are getting worse here for Donald and not better. I think a Clinton win here is possible.

[Mallow]

Trump. I'm still not convinced IA isn't this year's MO.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Clinton, barely.  It's a fairly Democratic state and Clinton will be able to hold onto enough of them. 

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

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trump

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because whites are terrible

[Cashew]

60% + chance Trump

[Xing]

I'll guess Trump narrowly, but I think it's a Toss-Up, and many people are underestimating Clinton here.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Trump will win Iowa because it's a very white state that has been economically damaged by globalism and free trade.

[Confused Democrat]

Hillary will win because I think polls are overstating Trump's support, and her GOTV operation simply outclasses his.

[Bismarck]

Trump has led in the vast majority of polls and the state is a good fit demographically for him and showed a republican trend in 2012 as well. Clinton might pull it out still. Either way it will be to the right of the nation and fairly close.

[Mr. Smith]

As likely as Romney taking Virginia and Florida back in 2012.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Most polls in IA have shown both candidates under 45%, making them worthless at this stage. Obama won white IA women 58-41% in 2012, one of his top 5 states with said group. Would not be surprised to see Hillary hold on here.

[JJC]

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trump

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because whites are terrible

This is not racist.
This state did not go for Obama twice.
In the future, our cars will be powered by unicorn farts
 ~Things that aren't true

[Bojack Horseman]

Donald Trump because the average "independent swing voter" is too stupid to figure out which side of a coin is heads.

[Hammy]

Most polls in IA have shown both candidates under 45%, making them worthless at this stage. Obama won white IA women 58-41% in 2012, one of his top 5 states with said group. Would not be surprised to see Hillary hold on here.

And yet you thought PA/VA/MI were going to be up for grabs?

[JA]

Trump will win Iowa, albeit narrowly. The state is one of the Whitest in the nation and doesn't have a particularly high college graduate population. Add to that the right-wing has been pretty successful in Iowa these past few years and the state has a rather high number of Evangelical Protestants (unlike the more irreligious and liberal Upper New England states that are even more White). I'm afraid that Iowa may be trending the way of Missouri; the driftless region (which is a total anomaly) simply can't carry the state alone.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Most polls in IA have shown both candidates under 45%, making them worthless at this stage. Obama won white IA women 58-41% in 2012, one of his top 5 states with said group. Would not be surprised to see Hillary hold on here.

And yet you thought PA/VA/MI were going to be up for grabs?

After Comey I thought Trump was going to surge throughout the week. I mean that I would not be surprised if Hillary holds IA in an outcome where she wins.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

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trump

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because whites are terrible

This is not racist.
This state did not go for Obama twice.
In the future, our cars will be powered by unicorn farts
 ~Things that aren't true

typical right-winger getting triggered by irrefutable facts

[JJC]

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trump

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because whites are terrible

This is not racist.
This state did not go for Obama twice.
In the future, our cars will be powered by unicorn farts
 ~Things that aren't true

typical right-winger getting triggered by irrefutable facts

...

[cwt]

Clinton 47.6
Trump 47.5
Other 5