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| |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
| | |-+  Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
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Author Topic: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1  (Read 1656 times)
Lief 🐋
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« on: November 05, 2016, 10:59:52 am »
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http://www.loras.edu/news/clinton-trump-tight-race-iowa-grassley-young-blum-leads-loras-college-poll-finds/

Clinton 44
Trump 43
Johnson 3
Stein 3

WOW!
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fuck nazis
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2016, 11:00:59 am »
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Junk

But if they're right, LOLras is no laughing matter.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2016, 11:01:10 am »
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lolras
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Yank2133
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2016, 11:01:22 am »
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BS.

Trump is likely up 2-3, but it will be close.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2016, 11:01:56 am »
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How hilarious would it be if Selzer shows the same thing lol
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2016, 11:02:08 am »
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I mean, obviously Loras is not a good poll, but their methodology seems sound. I'd certainly trust a live-caller, voter-list poll with close to even mix of landline and cell phone to whatever Emerson does.

Also note that Trump will be campaigning in Iowa this weekend...
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2016, 11:02:28 am »
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One point movement towards Clinton since late September. They've been quite a bit to the left of most pollsters in IA. Like, 5-6 points left.
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« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2016, 11:03:11 am »
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lol I can only dream it's true
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President dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2016, 11:03:43 am »
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good thing we have the DMR poll tonight at 7
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heatcharger
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« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2016, 11:04:05 am »
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Quinnipiac showed a tied race before Comey-gate, and Emerson is absolute trash, so I'm quite interested in this Selzer poll tonight.
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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2016, 11:04:51 am »
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This is just like a teaser for the real poll of Iowa coming tonight.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2016, 11:05:05 am »
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Relevant:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=239884.0
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« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2016, 11:06:02 am »
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good thing we have the DMR poll tonight at 7

Can't wait. DMR is by far the best for Iowa.
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« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2016, 11:06:45 am »
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I will say that if Loras somehow is right and Selzer is off again, Iowa is a hard state to poll Trump in.
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Castro
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« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2016, 11:13:34 am »
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Senate numbers seem reasonable, Grassley +16.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2016, 11:15:09 am »
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They actually have favorable numbers for the incumbent Republican congresscritters, so they might actually be right. We'll see on election day.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2016, 11:20:40 am »

New Poll: Iowa President by Loras College on 2016-11-03

Summary: D: 44%, R: 43%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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xīngkěruì
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« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2016, 11:30:29 am »
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I don't see why Clinton winning by one is such an implausible result. Yes, this if LOLras, so of course this particular poll isn't to be trusted, but I really don't buy Iowa being Safe Trump.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2016, 11:30:44 am »
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Clinton once again dominating the early vote:

http://www.loras.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/LCP-NOV-IA-2016.pdf

Of the 26.2% (131/500) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton = 57% (69/121)
Trump = 29% (35/121)
Other = 9% (11/121)
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« Reply #19 on: November 05, 2016, 11:34:32 am »
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Clinton should almost certainly be a slight favorite here. This or Arizona will probably be the closest state.
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« Reply #20 on: November 05, 2016, 11:47:15 am »
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Clinton should almost certainly be a slight favorite here. This or Arizona will probably be the closest state.
Based on what? The same poll showed her +14 ahead in June! Also, do you really believe there is a 28(!)-point difference in favourability? I wouldn't be surprised they are doing this based on 2012 turnout numbers.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #21 on: November 05, 2016, 11:48:10 am »
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Loras makes Emerson look good.
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« Reply #22 on: November 05, 2016, 12:10:48 pm »
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Loras makes Emerson look good.
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« Reply #23 on: November 05, 2016, 12:14:37 pm »
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Any good pollsters in the field in Iowa now?
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #24 on: November 05, 2016, 12:15:16 pm »
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Any good pollsters in the field in Iowa now?

Des Moines Register. That's the "cream of the crop" poll. Coming out tonight.
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