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Author Topic: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7  (Read 4999 times)
Castro
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« on: November 05, 2016, 07:04:48 pm »
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Trump - 46%
Clinton - 39%
Johnson - 6%
Stein - 1%

Poll conducted Nov 1-4.

Quote
At first glance, the early vote offers a bright spot for Clinton, where she enjoys a 22-point advantage over Trump. That’s a testament to her campaign’s heavy focus on banking votes during Iowa’s 40-day early vote period. But the data indicate it will not be enough to overcome Trump's support.

Voters who have already cast their ballots represent 34 percent of poll respondents. Among the remaining two-thirds of respondents who haven’t voted but plan to, Trump leads by 21 percentage points, 53-32.

Among other groups, meanwhile, Clinton’s lead is significantly lower than the advantage she enjoys nationally. She holds just a 3-point lead among women, for example, a demographic Democrats have been banking on to reject Trump and lift Clinton and one that she leads by a dozen or more points in national polls.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2016/11/05/iowa-poll-trump-opens-7-point-lead-over-clinton/93347134/?hootPostID=244ad51ae6af519614281eb8c6904b90
« Last Edit: November 05, 2016, 07:09:30 pm by Castro »Logged
dspNY
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2016, 07:05:39 pm »
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Iowa's gone to the dark side
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2016, 07:05:48 pm »
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As expected
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nirvanayoda
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2016, 07:05:57 pm »
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BOOM!
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2016, 07:06:01 pm »
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Good lord.
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Even if you don't agree with the women stuff, it's really hard to argue that NH is still a competitive swing state. And after 2016 (when Kelly Ayotte and Donald Trump lose the state, despite a very close presidential race and Republicans holding the Senate), this will become clear to you as well, Kingpoleon.

Lok1999
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2016, 07:06:27 pm »
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WELP!
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A Liberal LGBT in an LGBT supporting, but mostly conservative city.

Assemblyman-elect
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2016, 07:06:37 pm »
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Bye Iowa, hello North Carolina.
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Bannon's Brigade
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« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2016, 07:06:43 pm »
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PRAISE THE LORD!!
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Ronnie
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« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2016, 07:06:46 pm »
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Holy moly guacamole.

Looks like Iowa is the new Missouri.
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Born, raised, and currently residing in Southern California
Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2016, 07:07:33 pm »
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Never expected her to win here.
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Ljube
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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2016, 07:07:39 pm »
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Iowa's gone to the dark side

Yes. But, if true, this means that OH and PA are going Iowa's way for sure and MI is following closely.
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2016, 07:07:47 pm »
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game over in Iowa
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2016, 07:07:57 pm »
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PRAISE THE LORD!!

Why?

We dont need and weren't counting on Iowa.
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Horus
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« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2016, 07:08:19 pm »
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Expected.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2016, 07:08:35 pm »
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Horrible state. Let's hope Democrats never hold their first primary/caucus there ever again.
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fuck nazis
Castro
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« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2016, 07:08:43 pm »
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The poll shows younger voters are less likely to identify as Democrats, something that stands in contrast to the last two elections.  The youth vote was the backbone of the Obama coalition in Iowa, and he won by a large margin among voters under age 35 in 2008. The final Iowa poll ahead of the 2008 election showed 33 percent of those under age 35 identified as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans, and 38 percent as independents. In this poll, 36 percent identify as independent, 32 percent Republican and just 25 percent Democratic.
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Caripace Clavicle Moundshroud
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« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2016, 07:08:50 pm »
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Iowa's gone to the dark side

Yes. But, if true, this means that OH and PA are going Iowa's way for sure and MI is following closely.


No. Philly suburbs are changing PA from a rust belt state to part of the solid northeast.
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Devils30
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« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2016, 07:09:00 pm »
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It won't be 7 but a 2-4% Trump win sounds right.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2016, 07:09:12 pm »
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Horrible state. Let's hope Democrats never hold their first primary/caucus there ever again.

Don't forget New Hampshire, man. Wink
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Even if you don't agree with the women stuff, it's really hard to argue that NH is still a competitive swing state. And after 2016 (when Kelly Ayotte and Donald Trump lose the state, despite a very close presidential race and Republicans holding the Senate), this will become clear to you as well, Kingpoleon.

QE
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« Reply #19 on: November 05, 2016, 07:09:44 pm »
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Damn.

Well, I will give Selzer the benefit of the doubt and say this is a good indicator that Iowa is probably Lean Trump now, but if she fudges up this result like she did with the Iowa Caucuses, then she'll take a major hit in credibility (in my book at least).  
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Special Boy
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« Reply #20 on: November 05, 2016, 07:10:02 pm »
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Even at the height of the Clinton boom, he was up 4. This is bad but no surprises.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #21 on: November 05, 2016, 07:10:07 pm »
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How stupid are the people of Iowa?!
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calvinhobbesliker
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« Reply #22 on: November 05, 2016, 07:10:12 pm »
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The poll shows younger voters are less likely to identify as Democrats, something that stands in contrast to the last two elections.  The youth vote was the backbone of the Obama coalition in Iowa, and he won by a large margin among voters under age 35 in 2008. The final Iowa poll ahead of the 2008 election showed 33 percent of those under age 35 identified as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans, and 38 percent as independents. In this poll, 36 percent identify as independent, 32 percent Republican and just 25 percent Democratic.

Consistent with the school poll where Iowa was the only blue state to go red.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #23 on: November 05, 2016, 07:10:39 pm »
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The sad truth about Iowa... http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/education/2015/05/10/iowa-student-brain-drain/26999519/
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What this election has revealed to me is that our American political factions hold no respect for one another, and that this disrespect has reached the personal level. If we make it through the next four years, I can only pray that our party does something to remedy this, because until we have removed all of our "deplorable" rhetoric from our systems, this nation is hopeless.
Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #24 on: November 05, 2016, 07:11:20 pm »
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Holy f**k

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“People have forgotten this truth," the fox said. "But you mustn’t forget it. You become responsible forever for what you’ve tamed. You’re responsible for your rose.”
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