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| |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
| | |-+  NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
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Author Topic: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5  (Read 3024 times)
President dfwlibertylover
dfwlibertylover
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« on: November 05, 2016, 11:28:33 pm »
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https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitYTV0T1hDMnpDVkU/view
Trump - 50
Clinton - 45
Johnson - 3
Stein - 1
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Wolverine22
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2016, 11:29:13 pm »
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*Laughs so hard his gut hurts*
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"There is nothing more dangerous than a pawn that thinks it's a queen."
-President Tom Kirkman (Designated Survivor)

Kirsten Gillibrand for President in 2020!
Arch
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E: -5.94, S: -6.09

P P P
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2016, 11:29:41 pm »
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Sic semper tyrannis.

Solitude Without a Window
Antonio V
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2016, 11:30:06 pm »
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Suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuure.
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Our numbers are dwindling. Our words are confused.
Some of them have been twisted by the enemy
until they can no longer be recognized.

Now what is wrong, or false, in what we have said?
Just some parts, or everything?
On whom can we still rely? Are we survivors, cast
away by the current? Will we be left behind,
no longer understanding anyone and being understood by no one?
Must we rely on luck?

This is what you ask. Expect
no answer but your own.


Bertolt Brecht
ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2016, 11:30:46 pm »
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this sums up this election perfectly.

those are, iirc...the "what would your neighbour vote"-guys.
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Horus
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2016, 11:31:31 pm »
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This poll has 25-35 year olds breaking for Trump 51-39, and shows Trump getting 37% of Latinos. I find that very hard to believe, to say the least.
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President dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2016, 11:32:26 pm »
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Suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuure.
my secret fetish is Ralston being wrong
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Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
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« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2016, 11:33:16 pm »
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I'm conservative on polling, but I'm very very very confident that EV has already shown where NV is going. This is a hard swing and miss.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2016, 11:36:58 pm »
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if they would at least fine a tie.....

how does this work?

strict rules which make it clear that latinos never vote?

english-only landlines?

30%+ trumpocrats?
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Trumpsucks!!!
matthew27
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« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2016, 11:37:02 pm »
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I can safely say that this is trash!
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My tropical cyclones archives(mainly Atlantic) http://z7.invisionfree.com/TWW3/index.php?showforum=4

NHC discussions, satellite imagines, satellite loops, recon data, etc.
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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2016, 11:38:25 pm »
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If Nate Silver had any sanity, which is hard to know after yesterday, he wouldn't include this garbage polling outfit in his model.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2016, 11:40:18 pm »
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This is just going to increase Trump's odds in Nevada and make Nate Silver's model even more of a joke! BEAUTIFUL!
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fuck nazis
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« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2016, 11:52:45 pm »
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Uh, sure.
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Larry Sanders can still win
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2016, 11:55:47 pm »
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Did that Overtime Politics or whatever pollster reopen?
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John Chiang for CA Governor 2018
Michael Eisen for US Senate from CA 2018
E: -3.48 S: -7.48
I can see it now...
Trump: Kanye, I know Donald Trump. I am Donald Trump. Donald Trump's a yuge friend of mine - big league good guy, great president. Kanye, you're no Donald Trump.
RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2016, 11:56:35 pm »
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Did that Overtime Politics or whatever pollster reopen?

Trafalgar was polling at least as early as the SC primary this year.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2016, 11:57:59 pm »
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When Ralston gets discredited after this election I wonder who becomes the new hero of delusion for the left. Haven't heard much about the great Mark Mellman after he showed Bruce Braley ahead in iowa
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2016, 11:59:18 pm »
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When Ralston gets discredited after this election I wonder who becomes the new hero of delusion for the left. Haven't heard much about the great Mark Mellman after he showed Bruce Braley ahead in iowa

It would also "discredit" Michael McDonald, who has called Nevada as "safe Clinton". That'd be literally 2 of the top 3 people who study NV politics "discredited". Go to their numbers and tell me where they're wrong. What thing are they expecting that they shouldn't be?
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xīngkěruž
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« Reply #17 on: November 06, 2016, 12:00:13 am »
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Will people finally stop taking NV polling seriously after this election?


...Unfortunately, they probably will. I mean, it just can't be wrong again, can it? Roll Eyes
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #18 on: November 06, 2016, 12:02:46 am »
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I think Hillary wins it but probably not by much.
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Update lives again on Atlas After Dark. PM me for info.
Maxwell
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« Reply #19 on: November 06, 2016, 12:03:23 am »
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do terrible right-wing pollsters every go bankrupt or do people just like being lied to?
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #20 on: November 06, 2016, 12:03:44 am »
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NV has had many bad poll years but this must be the worst, if ralston is even in the same universe as the final vote.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2016, 12:05:51 am by ApatheticAustrian »Logged

Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2016, 12:05:27 am »
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When Ralston gets discredited after this election I wonder who becomes the new hero of delusion for the left. Haven't heard much about the great Mark Mellman after he showed Bruce Braley ahead in iowa

It would also "discredit" Michael McDonald, who has called Nevada as "safe Clinton". That'd be literally 2 of the top 3 people who study NV politics "discredited". Go to their numbers and tell me where they're wrong. What thing are they expecting that they shouldn't be?
Clinton is probably favored based on early voting, calling it "safe" is delusional. I also love the convenient worship of a man who got half the competitive races wrong in the last election
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Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #22 on: November 06, 2016, 12:06:14 am »
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Will people finally stop taking NV polling seriously after this election?


...Unfortunately, they probably will. I mean, it just can't be wrong again, can it? Roll Eyes

We were told to disregard the AK SEN and CO SEN polls in 2014, and in the end those polls were spot on. "House Effects" or "Turnout misestimates" can always fade away over time.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2016, 12:08:00 am »
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Clinton is probably favored based on early voting, calling it "safe" is delusional. I also love the convenient worship of a man who got half the competitive races wrong in the last election

doesn't really sound like it.

https://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/my-column-predictions-campaign-14
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #24 on: November 06, 2016, 12:08:13 am »
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When Ralston gets discredited after this election I wonder who becomes the new hero of delusion for the left. Haven't heard much about the great Mark Mellman after he showed Bruce Braley ahead in iowa

It would also "discredit" Michael McDonald, who has called Nevada as "safe Clinton". That'd be literally 2 of the top 3 people who study NV politics "discredited". Go to their numbers and tell me where they're wrong. What thing are they expecting that they shouldn't be?
Clinton is probably favored based on early voting, calling it "safe" is delusional. I also love the convenient worship of a man who got half the competitive races wrong in the last election

I asked for a debunk of their math. We don't need Ralston or McDonald to see the numbers from NV, which are ~70% of all that will vote there. Debunk their numbers, not the men.
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