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| |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
| | |-+  NM-Albuquerque Journal: Clinton +5
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Author Topic: NM-Albuquerque Journal: Clinton +5  (Read 1134 times)
heatcharger 🌹‏
heatcharger
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« on: November 06, 2016, 07:01:10 am »
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https://www.abqjournal.com/883092/clinton-still-ahead-in-new-mexico.html

Clinton 45% (+10)
Trump 40% (+9)
Johnson 11% (-13)
Stein 3% (+1)
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heatcharger 🌹‏
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« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2016, 07:03:47 am »
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Something interesting:

Hispanics: Clinton 54, Trump 24, Johnson 14

In 2012 the exit polls showed Hispanics voting 68-20 Obama. Somehow I doubt Trump is improving on Romney's numbers with Hispanics in the state.
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Wade McDaniel
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« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2016, 07:06:23 am »
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Why are all polls showing Hispanics voting more for Trump though?  Are they all wrong?  Or do white Democrats not understand Hispanics because they're ivory tower and out of touch?  Stay tuned!  The answer is coming on Tuesday night.
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Ljube
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« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2016, 07:17:36 am »
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Hispanics for Trump!!!
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2016, 07:18:44 am »
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Something interesting:

Hispanics: Clinton 54, Trump 24, Johnson 14

In 2012 the exit polls showed Hispanics voting 68-20 Obama. Somehow I doubt Trump is improving on Romney's numbers with Hispanics in the state.

A crosstab showing a 4-point improvement isn't really an indicator given MoE and all. Also (as forgotten as it may be now) Romney was hardly seen as an Hispanic-friendly candidate.
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Baki
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« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2016, 07:36:07 am »
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Something interesting:

Hispanics: Clinton 54, Trump 24, Johnson 14

In 2012 the exit polls showed Hispanics voting 68-20 Obama. Somehow I doubt Trump is improving on Romney's numbers with Hispanics in the state.

A crosstab showing a 4-point improvement isn't really an indicator given MoE and all. Also (as forgotten as it may be now) Romney was hardly seen as an Hispanic-friendly candidate.

Romney may not have been the most Hispanic-friendly candidate but at least he didn't use every trick from the book "How to make Hispanics NOT vote for you?".
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2016, 07:37:01 am »
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I'm surprised it's still this close.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2016, 07:41:25 am »
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If Clinton overperforms polls among Hispanics (not only in NM), then not only GOP has to change itself, but polling industry as well.

I mean, it is "A" pollster from NM. If they are so wrong, then all have problem with methodology.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2016, 07:44:06 am by Little Big BREXIT »Logged

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2016, 07:59:33 am »
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Why are all polls showing Hispanics voting more for Trump though?  Are they all wrong?  Or do white Democrats not understand Hispanics because they're ivory tower and out of touch?  Stay tuned!  The answer is coming on Tuesday night.

Many Hispanics in New Mexico are descended in part from Spanish settlers in New Mexico in very early times. Some of course would by necessity intermarry with the First Peoples due to the high male-female ratio (which really makes them American!) Many have significant Anglo ancestry. I'm guessing that Hispanic culture can as fully assimilate persons of "Anglo" origin (which includes Irish, Germans, Italians, etc.) as Anglo culture can assimilate Hispanic people.



Much of the Hispanic population in New Mexico is NOT of recent immigrant origin.    
« Last Edit: November 06, 2016, 08:01:29 am by pbrower2a »Logged



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mencken
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« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2016, 10:02:33 am »
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These are New Mexico Hispanics, who have a much longer history with the United States than most Hispanics in the rest of the country.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2016, 10:25:32 am »

New Poll: New Mexico President by Research & Polling Inc on 2016-11-03

Summary: D: 45%, R: 40%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2016, 10:55:52 am »
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Will there be a rush of new polls later today, because until now it seems like a very slow poll Sunday compared with other recent presidential elections ... ?

Or maybe tomorrow will be the BIG poll day.
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heatcharger 🌹‏
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« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2016, 11:00:58 am »
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Will there be a rush of new polls later today, because until now it seems like a very slow poll Sunday compared with other recent presidential elections ... ?

Or maybe tomorrow will be the BIG poll day.

Expect national polls tomorrow from CNN/ORC, Fox, and Monmouth. I hope Quinnipiac and Marist have a slate of state polls to release as well. They haven't declared they've finished polling so I expect something from them. I also want to see Upshot/Siena's final state poll (if it exists).
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Ljube
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« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2016, 11:02:00 am »
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I'm surprised it's still this close.

GWB won NM by 6000 votes (less than 1%).
It remains to be seen if Johnson will get 11% and how the undecideds will break.
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« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2016, 11:22:58 am »
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Why do CO/NM polls never include McMullin?
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Antonio V
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« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2016, 01:57:06 pm »
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Give me a f**king break.

Hillary will win here by at least 10 points.
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Our numbers are dwindling. Our words are confused.
Some of them have been twisted by the enemy
until they can no longer be recognized.

Now what is wrong, or false, in what we have said?
Just some parts, or everything?
On whom can we still rely? Are we survivors, cast
away by the current? Will we be left behind,
no longer understanding anyone and being understood by no one?
Must we rely on luck?

This is what you ask. Expect
no answer but your own.


Bertolt Brecht
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