Most of the national and swing state polls show Clinton with a significant lead among early voters, while Trump leads among those planning to vote on Election Day. One possibility is that not all of that Election Day vote will actually materialize, in which case Clinton wins easily. But if it does materialize, exit polls taken on Election Day are likely to show a strong vote for Trump.
I'm sure that professionals who know how to exit poll will take this into account. However, if Trump's supporters run their own amateur exit polls, as they have said they will, they're likely to see and report very favorable results for Trump. And if Clinton goes on to win, this will feed the narrative that the election was rigged against Trump.
Not really.
If Trump has an advantage on Election Day, it would only be because the Clinton supporters already voted early.
But there are states that do not even have early voting, where this would not apply.
