Is this the most plausible Trump victory map?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 09:10:44 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Is this the most plausible Trump victory map?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: ?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 47

Author Topic: Is this the most plausible Trump victory map?  (Read 1031 times)
RHTFT
Rookie
**
Posts: 42
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.50, S: -3.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 06, 2016, 09:31:53 AM »


Donald Trump: 270 EV
Hillary Clinton: 268 EV
Logged
Spark
Spark498
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: 0.00


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2016, 09:34:05 AM »

Yes, CO is close enough for him to win
Logged
elcorazon
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,402


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2016, 09:35:06 AM »

Michigan
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,603
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2016, 09:35:13 AM »

imho it's michigan or bust.
Logged
Horus
Sheliak5
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2016, 09:40:55 AM »

Logged
OneJ
OneJ_
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,834
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2016, 09:41:24 AM »

IMO, CO flips before NV. Other than that, everything else looks fine.
Logged
Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,999
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2016, 09:41:53 AM »

Logged
Rand
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,093
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2016, 10:08:46 AM »


Obama won Michigan by 450,000 votes in 2012 despite respectable swings toward Romney in every single county. It's a stretch of the imagination to suggest a candidate behind in state and national polls will overcome a nearly half million vote deficit unless you believe he will have a massive come-from-behind victory and sweep other Dem states like PA and WI.
Logged
Mr. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,075
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2016, 10:22:12 AM »

Probably WI for once.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2016, 10:31:52 AM »

You people will be in for a rude awakening in two days if you think Trump can win NH.
Logged
Mallow
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 737
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2016, 10:58:02 AM »

No. PA is his only path. Trump will not win NV.
Logged
Zarn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,820


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2016, 10:59:16 AM »

You people will be in for a rude awakening in two days if you think Trump can win NH.

I really don't understand your stance on NH. The polling says it is in play.
Logged
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2016, 11:06:09 AM »

Winning Colorado and holding North Carolina and Florida is Trump's only path to victory.  Period.  He may get two out of three, but it's highly unlikely he'll complete the trifecta.

The NV+NH path is about as likely as drawing to an inside straight and ending up with a straight flush.  It could happen, but realistically, no.  And he still needs to hold North Carolina and Florida, which he has maybe a 25% chance of doing.
Logged
Horsemask
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,274


Political Matrix
E: -1.81, S: -4.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2016, 11:28:03 AM »

Yes, it is. This is the only way I see Trump winning. Exactly the map I shared with my Trump supporting brother a day or two ago.
Logged
PeteB
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,874
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2016, 12:27:23 PM »

It won't happen, but statistically it is probably the most likely. The only possible change would be to flip CO in place of NV or NH and ME-1.
Logged
mencken
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,222
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2016, 12:30:08 PM »


Obama won Michigan by 450,000 votes in 2012 despite respectable swings toward Romney in every single county. It's a stretch of the imagination to suggest a candidate behind in state and national polls will overcome a nearly half million vote deficit unless you believe he will have a massive come-from-behind victory and sweep other Dem states like PA and WI.

Romney advocated letting Detroit go bankrupt. Regardless of the merit of such a viewpoint, I would think Trump's populism would allow him to improve on that performance.

Although I do concur that a Michigan win likely portends good fortune in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, I do not think that Michigan is an unlikely source of Trump's 270th electoral vote.
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,468
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: November 06, 2016, 12:32:59 PM »

I think so, though it won't happen. Only forget the shadding in your map, RHTFT. The Trumpster won't be at 70% in UT.
Logged
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,166
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: November 06, 2016, 12:34:28 PM »
« Edited: November 06, 2016, 12:40:49 PM by Speed of Sound »

NV is absolutely over already. It's gotta run through the "upper wall" (MI/PA/WI).
Logged
zorkpolitics
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,188
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: November 06, 2016, 12:40:32 PM »

I don;t think Trump will win NH or NV so his best chance in through MI of all places:
Logged
nclib
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,300
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: November 06, 2016, 04:42:12 PM »

If this happens (ME-2 being the 270th EV), would there be anger from Dems at the Maine/Nebraska split?
Logged
SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,639
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: November 06, 2016, 05:23:59 PM »

Yes, I believe that is the most likely Trump victory map. If it happens, Clinton will likely win the national PV by a point or so.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.057 seconds with 15 queries.