States where you are confident about the relative outcome

[mencken]

Based on the polls that have come out in the last week, when compared to how I would expect the states to vote based on demographics, I feel fairly confident predicting that, whatever the final result will be, Ohio will be 5 points more Republican than the nation, Florida will be 2 points more Republican than the nation, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania will be even, and Colorado and Virginia will be 2 points more Democratic than the nation (give or take a point on all of these).

On the other hand, polling in Nevada (especially), Iowa, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Michigan have been divergent enough from my demographic expectations that I cannot say with considerable confidence where they will end up relative to the nation.

Thoughts?

[Confused Democrat]

I'm not confident about the outcomes in FL, NC, OH, and IA.

I would describe each state as...

FL: Toss-up lean Dem

NC: Toss-up lean Dem

OH: Pure toss-up

IA: Toss-up lean Rep

[win win]

These are my predictions. I believe all the swing states are right of the nation.

ia 6 right
oh 5 right
nc 4 right
fl 3 right
co 2 right
nv 0 to 4 right
pa -1 to 2 right
mi -1 to 3 right
nh 0 to 2 right


Least confident to most confident:
MI, NH, NV, PA, CO, NC, FL, OH

[Tender Branson]

I'm not really comfortable with making a call in the grey states:

I will wait for the final polls tomorrow and make my prediction then.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

My confidence levels in various swing states:

Nearly certain D:
Minnesota
Virginia
Michigan
Wisconsin

Extremely confident D:
Pennsylvania

Somewhat nervous D:
New Hampshire
Colorado
Nevada

Cautiously optimistic D:
Florida

Maybe D, but who the hell knows:
North Carolina

Probably R, but D wouldn't surprise me:
Ohio
Arizona
ME-02

Fairly certain R, but I could be surprised:
Iowa
NE-02

Nearly certain R:
Georgia

[Crumpets]

Using Beef's metric:

Nearly certain D :
Minnesota
Virginia
Michigan
Wisconsin

Extremely confident D (roughly the national PV average):
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Nevada

Somewhat nervous D:
New Hampshire

Cautiously optimistic D:
Florida
ME-02

Maybe D, but who the hell knows:
North Carolina
NE-02

Probably R, but D wouldn't surprise me:
Ohio
Iowa


Fairly certain R, but I could be surprised:
Arizona


Nearly certain R:
Georgia

[Dr. Arch]

Using Beef's metric, this is my rating:

Nearly certain D :
Minnesota
Virginia
Michigan
Wisconsin

Extremely confident D (roughly the national PV average):
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Nevada

Somewhat nervous D:
New Hampshire

Cautiously optimistic D:
Florida
ME-02

Maybe D, but who the hell knows:
North Carolina
NE-02

Probably R, but D wouldn't surprise me:
Ohio
Arizona

Fairly certain R, but I could be surprised:
Iowa

Nearly certain R:
Georgia

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Honestly, the only one I'm really uncertain about is Ohio.

I also think there's an outside chance at "surprises" in Arizona and Michigan (!). Maybe I'm foolish.

[Blue3]

I'm not confident about the outcomes in FL, NC, OH, and IA.

I would describe each state as...

FL: Toss-up lean Dem

NC: Toss-up lean Dem

OH: Pure toss-up

IA: Toss-up lean Rep

this is how I feel about it too

[Hammy]

Absolute confidence map--lighter colors I'm very hesitant on due to inconsistent polling, NC/FL are the I have zero confidence making a call one way or the other.

[mencken]

Extremely confident D (roughly the national PV average):

I take this and all you use the same categorization to imply extreme confidence in the overall PV outcome. I personally think this is unwarranted. Given that the last election featured a 3 point error in Romney's favor, and polling by established firms was much more abundant at this point four years ago than today, a 5 point miss in either direction would not be surprising. Hence why I tried to separate states based on whether I am uncertain about the state's individual outcome or uncertain about the PV as a whole.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Honestly, not much would surprise me, but I'm confident on nearby pairs.

North Carolina will be to the right of Virginia
Ohio will be to the right of both Michigan and Pennsylvania
Iowa will be to the right of the nation as a whole
Trump will win Alabama (I was in Alabama over the weekend and saw Trump stuff everywhere and no Hillary stuff)
Clinton will win Maryland

[Senator-elect Spark]

Not sure about CO or NV. I know 1 will go for Trump and the other for Hillary.
FL is a true toss-up and probably will need a recount.

[°Leprechaun]

FL is a must win for Trump. Clinton can easily win all the states that haven't gone R since '88 and a few of the others. I am not saying I am confident about FL, but the others listed as Clinton are very very likely.

[Desroko]

I'm not confident about the outcomes in FL, NC, OH, and IA.

I would describe each state as...

FL: Toss-up lean Dem

NC: Toss-up lean Dem

OH: Pure toss-up

IA: Toss-up lean Rep