Predict your district

[heatcharger]

Let's see how accurate we are in our own districts. Even if you live in a noncompetitive district, it'll be fun to look at after the election.

I'll start. VA-10 is perhaps the most competitive district in the country, and for good reason. Barbara Comstock won pretty handily two years ago but now seems to be running against the tailwinds of the district. Her challenger Luann Bennett got off to a slow start but has since basically eliminated Comstock's incumbency advantage. Comstock only recently put up ads, and even from a nonpartisan angle, those ads aren't particularly good.

Comstock has a narrow yard sign lead, but Bennett has run far better ads and has a stronger ground game, thus having all the momentum. I'm starting to get the feeling Comstock gets caught in the Trump avalanche, but it'll be a nail biter. I'll guess:

Bennett (D) 49.5%
Comstock (R, inc.) 49.0%

D+1

[Green Line]

IL-1.  Our very own domestic terrorist wins bigly.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

TN-5:

Cooper 56
Snyder 43

[MT Treasurer]

54% Ryan Zinke (R, inc.)
42% Denise Juneau (D)
4% Rick Breckenridge (L)

[tmthforu94]

All Kansas races:

Senate
Moran (R, inc.) - 65%
Wiesner (D) - 31%

1st District
Marshall (R) - 74%
LaPolice - 22%

2nd District
Jenkins (R, inc.) - 62%
Potter (D) - 35%

3rd District
Yoder (R, inc.) - 52%
Sidie (D) - 45%

4th District
Pompeo (R, inc.) - 63%
Giroux (D) - 34%

[evergreenarbor]

WA-02:

Larsen (D, inc.) - 62.5%
Hennemann (R) - 37%
Write-ins - 0.5%

And just for fun, the presidential vote:

Clinton - 59%
Trump - 34%
Johnson - 4%
Stein - 3%

[Bismarck]

IN-04 Todd Rokita (R) 60% John Dale (D) 35 %

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

NJ-07:

Lance (R, inc) - 56%
Jacob (D) - 40%

[IceSpear]

PA-01:

Bob Brady (D, inc): 86%
Deborah Williams (R): 14%

[Blackacre]

NY-18: Sean Patrick Maloney wins by 2-4 points. If he survived 2014, he'll be absolutely fine

[Kingpoleon]

Steve Womack(R): 67%
Nathan LaFrance(L): 32%

[Heisenberg]

Steve Womack(R): 67%
Nathan LaFrance(L): 32%

He was removed from the ballot, and Steve Isaacson replaced him as the Libertarian candidate.

[OneJ]

MS-02:
Safe D (Over 60%)

[Xing]

WA-07:
Jayapal (D) 57%
Walkinshaw (D) 43%

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

CA-41 (D+9)
Mark Takano (D, inc) 65%
Doug Shepherd (R)35%

It was only 4 years ago that RCP labeled this district lean-D. Shepherd is a local real estate agent who's invested his own money into prominent yard signs. Although Takano has plenty of picket signs down the streets, he's sent just 2 mailers since August and spends most of his time campaigning for local downballot Democrats

Final registration numbers (Compared to January 5, 2016):
Democrats: 144,336...46.7%  (+37830...+4.9)
Republicans: 86,881...28.1%  (+4780...-4.1)
NPP/Other: 77,761...25.2%  (+11514...-0.8 )



EDIT (3/13/2017)

Takano (D) 128,164.....64.95%
Shepherd (R) 69,159.....35.05%

Winnar!

[Andy Hine]

PA-16

Joe Pitts is retiring after 9 terms and would have very likely held onto his seat. Christina Hartman is trying to gain the seat back for the Democrats in an R+4 district and I feel that she has a good shot to do it. I would not have said that one month ago. Lloyd Smucker has put out ads against her, which signals that he is taking this race seriously. I will say that Hartman pulls off the upset by performing very well in Lancaster County, where she is from. There is also a third party candidate running.

Interesting Fact: I recently moved from the King of Prussia Area back close to my hometown and assumed that I was back in PA-6, but I found out about a month ago that I actually live in PA-16. PA Districts are so pathetically gerrymandered, but I believe that she can pull this race out.

Hartman: 50.2
Smucker: 48.7

[PAK Man]

IA-04
Steve King - 60%
Kim Weaver - 40%

I'm actually really surprised at how much of a presence Kim Weaver has had in the 4th District, and I suspect she'll do better than others before her, but not by much. Steve King has too much goodwill among the locals. Plus, Democrats in Iowa haven't been doing well this year.

[Seattle]

WA-7:
Jayapal (D) - 54%
Walkinshaw (D) - 46%

and for president:

Clinton  - 85%
Trump - 8%
Stein - 4%
Johnson - 2%
Others - 1%

[Kingpoleon]

Steve Womack(R): 67%
Nathan LaFrance(L): 32%

He was removed from the ballot, and Steve Isaacson replaced him as the Libertarian candidate.

The worst part? I knew that.

I can easily forget things sometimes. Isaacson probably loses 69-30. He's a little lower profile.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

FL-6

Rep. Ron DeSantis (R) - 61%
Bill McCullough (D) - 39%

[Heisenberg]

Steve Womack(R): 67%
Nathan LaFrance(L): 32%

He was removed from the ballot, and Steve Isaacson replaced him as the Libertarian candidate.

The worst part? I knew that.

I can easily forget things sometimes. Isaacson probably loses 69-30. He's a little lower profile.

It's okay, we all forget things sometimes. I hadn't been really following that race, since it isn't competitive, but I looked up LaFrance because of his cool last name, and that's how I found out. LaFrance would definitely be higher profile because he was the Libertarian candidate for Senate two years ago.

[Mike Thick]

CA-26:
Brownley 55%
Dagnesses 45%

[publicunofficial]

WA-06:

Derek Kilmer (D) - 61%
Todd Bloom (R) - 39%

[Coolface Sock #42069]

IL-18

Congressional: Darin LaHood + 36
Senate: Mark Kirk + 30
Presidential: Donald Trump + 15

Mitt Romney won 61% of the vote in 2012 here while incumbent Congressman Aaron Schock won 75% of the vote (but was not seriously challenged). This is far an away the most conservative congressional district in Illinois.

[Cynthia]

I don't live in the U.S. but this district is right next to where I live.

WA-01
Congressional: Suzan DelBane +20
Senate: Patty Murray +15
Gubernatorial: Jay Inslee +20 This was his old district so he should be expected to do very well.
Presidential: Hillary Clinton +10