Post your final 2016 Presidential Election prediction maps here

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I haven't seen a thread yet and I figure that it's time for it.

Clinton 49.45% 361 EV
Trump 43.35% 170 EV
Johnson 5.05%
McMullin 0.78% 6 EV
Stein 0.62%
Sanders 0.1% 1 EV (Faithless Elector from WA/Write ins)
Others 0.65%

I might be too generous to McMullin in Utah and Clinton in Alaska, but I'm sticking with it.

[Lachi]

This, give or take AK/IA, depending on how the demographics go.

[Fusionmunster]

[Xing]

May change mine tomorrow, but for now, this.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

[Crumpets]

States I'm least confident about in order: IA, OH, NC, AZ, UT, FL, GA

Clinton/Kaine 347 EV - 51.4% PV
Trump/Pence 190 EV - 45.0% PV
Sanders/Warren 1 EV
Johnson/Weld 0 EV - 2.3%  PV
Stein/Baraka 0 EV - 0.8% PV

[Cashew]

[AGA]

Clinton wins the PV by 5 points.

[Vern]

[MisterElection2001]

Using a combination of Nate Silver's forecasts and the recent trends in Trump's favor, I'm calling a tight Trump win.

[tinman64]

Clinton 49%
Trump 45.5%
Others 5.5%

[Confused Democrat]

Feeling optimistic.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

In my heart of hearts, I think the polls are going to turn out to be off in Clinton's favor, by a net shift of around 3%. Better GOTV, and people who won't pull the lever for Trump or will pull the lever for Hillary in the privacy of the booth, Clinton support underestimated by the pollsters, all adds up. I hope. Thus my map, which I notice is very similar to a number of others.

Given the nature of the election, I also expect some sort of surprises. I just don't know exactly what. But I'll predict at least one of the following:
-Clinton loses a state she should have won because of voting process manipulation by GOP-controlled election officials.
-Clinton supporters (probably minorities) in at least one state are subjected to organized and violent voter suppression by Trumpshirts. (May or may not cost her the state.)
-Trump loses at least one state by >5% more than the RCP polling average
-a strange but legitimate result in AK, ID, UT,  AZ or NM, where a candidate who wouldn't be expected to win does so thanks to big third-party voting.
-At least one faithless elector
-at least one voter-suppression incident from the Trump cult brought to court on election day


I'll also add here my predictions on the behavior of the two candidates and their supporters immediately after the election. I don't begrudge either candidate recounts, and even lawsuits if deciding states have low-enough margins, or if there is real dishonesty occurring (something I expect from Trumpers, to be honest).

For the Dems and their supporters, a solid Clinton win will bring relief and joy, almost as great as that when Obama won. In the hopefully never-to-see event of a Clinton loss and Trump victory, I predict much wailing and gnashing of teeth, immediate protests and minor violence. (Which will be blown out of proportion by the victorious Trump cult, of course.) But they will ultimately abide by the result.

From the Trump cult, win or lose, I expect nothing better than outright fascism, of the kind the Greatest Generation fought to destroy. There will be violence, terrorism, and a complete rejection of the law and American democracy.

[Marokai Backbeat]

[Orser67]

[Tender Branson]

I'll post it in the evening.

Hint: I will predict a Hillary-win.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Tossups: AK, AZ, NC, NE-2, OH, UT
Lean states: FL, GA, IA, ME-2, NH, TX, WI


Clinton: 334 EVs, 49.5% PV
Trump: 197 EVs, 43.9% PV
McMullin: 6 EVs
Sanders: 1 EV

McMullin wins UT. Fairly generous map, but what the hell

[Crumpets]

I just remembered to take an electoral vote off Clinton's total because of the faithless elector in Washington. Don't forget that for your predictions!

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I just remembered to take an electoral vote off Clinton's total because of the faithless elector in Washington. Don't forget that for your predictions!

Is there a way to include that on the maps?

[The Other Castro]

[Devout Centrist]

Spot on, UT with only 30% range for Trump

[ursulahx]

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Final map:



Confidence:

[Tender Branson]

Tender's 2016 Presidential Prediction:



Hillary Clinton: 272 EV
Donald Trump: 266 EV

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2016/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=9859

Margins for the important states:

NV: Trump by 0.6
AZ: Trump by 3.7
UT: Trump by 6.8
CO: Hillary by 4.2
NM: Hillary by 5.1
TX: Trump by 9.4
MN: Hillary by 5.0
IA: Trump by 1.1
WI: Hillary by 6.5
MI: Hillary by 1.9
OH: Trump by 2.7
PA: Hillary by 1.6
VA: Hillary by 4.8
NH: Hillary by 1.9
ME: Hillary by 10.1 (ME-02: Trump by 0.9)
NC: Trump by 0.4
GA: Trump by 6.5
FL: Trump by 0.3
AK: Trump by 7.3

USA: 47.5% Hillary, 45.6% Trump, 4.3% Johnson, 1.4% Stein, 0.7% McMullin, 0.5% Others

Turnout: 134.6 million (~58 to 59% of the VEP)

Senate:

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2016/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=9859

Governors:

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2016/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=9859

House (a rough guess)

232 GOP, 203 Dems

[Ljube]

Tender, Killary wins in your prediction.

You used to call her a trainwreck. What has changed?