How confident are you in Tuesday's result?

[ursulahx]

Pre-Brexit I'd have been 80+% confident. But I remember the horrible shock of that night, so my irrational side is driving it below 70%.

[Figueira]

About 80%. The fundamentals definitely favor Clinton.

[Torie]

90% sounds abut right to me. The 10% is mostly associated with the alleged shy Trump voter effect, which is probably not there, or a collapse of black turnout where it might matter (probably not there either, although the turnout will drop a bit).

[Wisconsin+17]

Oh Blah. I can't read today. 90 percent sure that Hillary takes this.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

75% for me. I think Clinton wins, but this election has been insane, so if the shy Trump voter theory does exist, he will shock the world again.

[tallguy23]

75% Clinton wins