Fox Clinton +4

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Bill Mitchell has gone berserk about this poll.  He's sent at least 20 tweets attempting to rip it to shreds.  https://twitter.com/mitchellvii

Haha, the irony is that he is doing what Red hacks usually do here. Unskewing subsamples

[Rand]

Solid numbers for KILL-LIAR-Y!

[Crumpets]

538 gonna put this poll in and drop HRC chances, aren't they?!

To the contrary, it actually somehow magically increased her nation-wide likelihood by a full 2% (biggest shift in the last three days) and flipped three states to her. Just as weird, if you ask me.

[Mr. Morden]

under age 35: Clinton +18
age 35-54: Trump +8
age 55+: Clinton +6

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For the 35-54 to fit that, the 35 - 45 group in this poll would really need to be only modestly Democratic with the rest being heavily Republican.

The 55+ might fit if the silent generation has dwindled quite a bit and the older, more Democratic boomers now voting more than the others.

What's going on there?

I don't know.  Is it an outlier?  Their previous poll also showed Trump doing best among those age 35-54:

under age 35: Clinton +16
age 35-54: Trump +17
age 55+: Clinton +7

In contrast, here are the age crosstabs in other recent national polls:

McClatchy/Marist:

age 18-29: Clinton +17
age 30-44: Clinton +8
age 45-59: Trump +8
age 60+: Trump +5

Yougov:

under 30: Clinton +46
30-44: Clinton +9
45-64: Trump +5
65+: Trump +23

Pew:

[Liberalrocks]

So she's really up by 7 then? Fabulous!

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

So she's really up by 7 then? Fabulous!

Fox News actually doesn't manipulate their polls, they had Obama winning last election.

[Mr. Morden]

under age 35: Clinton +18
age 35-54: Trump +8
age 55+: Clinton +6

.
.
.

For the 35-54 to fit that, the 35 - 45 group in this poll would really need to be only modestly Democratic with the rest being heavily Republican.

The 55+ might fit if the silent generation has dwindled quite a bit and the older, more Democratic boomers now voting more than the others.

What's going on there?

I don't know.  Is it an outlier?  Their previous poll also showed Trump doing best among those age 35-54:

under age 35: Clinton +16
age 35-54: Trump +17
age 55+: Clinton +7

Followup to the above: Looks like Monmouth uses the same age categories, and here's what they have:

age 18-34: Clinton +27
age 35-54: Clinton +4
age 55+: Clinton +1

[Virginiá]

I don't know.  Is it an outlier?  Their previous poll also showed Trump doing best among those age 35-54:

30-44 tends to state her support among that group better I suppose. Democrats have done very well with young voters since the early-mid 90s and their support has not really undergone a fundamental shift since then even as they aged. But when they do 35 - 54, that includes a large range of more Republican age groups that drags the overall Democratic support quite a bit.

Still for a T+8 among 35-54 seems a bit heavy for Trump given what kind of voters inhabit the 35-44 range there. And the +6 Clinton support among 55+ is seems strange for a +4 national poll.

I guess we'll see what happens tomorrow. I'm more inclined to think these age groups won't actually vote quite like that if the race is of a similar margin.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Bigger lead than in her last pre-Comey poll? Very good.