Could tomorrow be the biggest polling error since 1948?
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  Could tomorrow be the biggest polling error since 1948?
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Author Topic: Could tomorrow be the biggest polling error since 1948?  (Read 3703 times)
SirMuxALot
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« Reply #25 on: November 09, 2016, 04:28:05 AM »

looks like the polling error was bigger than 1948

Not sure about that.  The problem with 1948 is that they simply stopped polling weeks before the election.  So it's not really a fair comparison to now.  Crossley and Gallup had Dewey up 5 and 6 points in their last polls.  The actual result was Truman +5, so that's a net error of 10-11.

Roper had Dewey +15, but since we like to toss out outliers...

This election won't even be a larger polling error than 1980.  Although 1980 polling got the winner right, the margin was off 6-7 points.  The 2016 polling error looks like it's going to land in the 3-5 range right now.
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Kalimantan
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« Reply #26 on: November 09, 2016, 05:07:23 AM »

Yes, Trump will win and it won't even be that close. He will carry all the Romney states plus; FL, OH, NH, 2nd district of Maine, MI, PA & Nevada. He will end up with 300+ electoral votes.

We will all see tomorrow night.

lol

Yeah, lol indeed, fancy thinking he'd carry Nevada!!!

Sad
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alomas
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« Reply #27 on: November 10, 2016, 07:53:28 AM »

I think Trump's best chance is the unpredictability of his character that will catch many pollster off-guard.
Smiley
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
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« Reply #28 on: November 10, 2016, 07:55:12 AM »

No. The national pollsters missed by 3 points. That's pretty normal.
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GMantis
Dessie Potter
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« Reply #29 on: November 10, 2016, 02:02:19 PM »

No. The national pollsters missed by 3 points. That's pretty normal.
The polling error in many key swing states was significantly greater, however.
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Skye
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« Reply #30 on: November 10, 2016, 02:30:58 PM »

Yes, the massive landslide Clinton wins this by will shock all mainstream media horserrace onlookers.
lol.

We were shocked, alright, but for the opposite reasons.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #31 on: November 10, 2016, 02:35:52 PM »

CA still has 4-5 million ballots left to count, WA has 850K left, AZ probably between 600-800K, CO more than 200K.

If everything is in, Hillary could lead by up to 2% in the national popular vote.
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yakutia
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« Reply #32 on: October 12, 2018, 11:55:29 PM »

Yes, Trump will win and it won't even be that close. He will carry all the Romney states plus; FL, OH, NH, 2nd district of Maine, MI, PA & Nevada. He will end up with 300+ electoral votes.

We will all see tomorrow night.

Goddamn how do I save this.
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Da2017
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« Reply #33 on: October 13, 2018, 12:08:14 AM »
« Edited: October 13, 2018, 12:12:12 AM by Da2017 »

The national polls were accurate. Clinton had a three point lead going in to the election.She won the popular vote by 2.It was the midwest States Mi,Wi,to a lesser extent Pennsylvania is where the polls missed it. Some places Co,Nv Trump's support was overestimated.
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