Any Democratic rural white Southern counties left?

[Adam Griffin]

I think there's some chance I overstated Clinton's White support in a few places. Having spent a lot more time looking at precinct level results, I think the Latino Decisions / AALDEF estimates of Trump's share of the non-White vote are closer to reality than the exit polls (It's probably also the case that past Republicans saw their non-White share of the vote inflated by exit polls).

Accordingly, if I probably over-estimated Trump's non-White support, I by definition, probably under-estimated his White support (and thus overstated Clinton's).

Granted, I don't think this will move the needle too much in the South, since I don't think my African-American support numbers need any revising based on what I've seen. Using the more accurate turnout numbers recently provided by the Census could impact things somewhat, but the direction likely varies by state.

In any case, I'm working on a version 2.0 of the model, and I hope to have it finished before I head back to university at the end of August.

I'd be very interested in seeing what you would generate for 2012 at the county level with your model.

Another interesting thing I just noticed from the discussion above: I had Oktibbeha whites as 23% Obama in 2012; your 2016 model shows 27% Clinton - a deviation from the general rule of thumb of difference between our two models. I remember that when I attempted to generate a "swing" map between our two models, there were a lot of counties in MS that swung to Clinton compared to my Obama 2012 model, which I thought was interesting. I remember having some questions about my initial model in MS when I was working on the project and believe I posted about it somewhere, but I honestly can't recall what exactly.


As far as population standards used for my model: since it's been two years and fifty projects ago, I don't exactly recall all of the parameters of my model. It was heavily adjusted as I progressed and also adjusted for individual states/areas, to the point that it was anything but one-size-fits-all.

My model initially began with VAP as the baseline but I made a series of custom alterations for many states. Especially in the SW, VAP is useless. In states and counties where non-black, non-white populations were non-negligible, I know that I switched to CVAP for the baseline and worked from there. As far as general demographic composition of the electorates, I'm quite confident in my model in the vast majority of counties in the nation - the only areas where I feel results outside the margin of error may exist in any sizable number of circumstances are places such as the Rio Grande Valley/TX and CA.

[NOVA Green]

I think there's some chance I overstated Clinton's White support in a few places. Having spent a lot more time looking at precinct level results, I think the Latino Decisions / AALDEF estimates of Trump's share of the non-White vote are closer to reality than the exit polls (It's probably also the case that past Republicans saw their non-White share of the vote inflated by exit polls).

Accordingly, if I probably over-estimated Trump's non-White support, I by definition, probably under-estimated his White support (and thus overstated Clinton's).

Granted, I don't think this will move the needle too much in the South, since I don't think my African-American support numbers need any revising based on what I've seen. Using the more accurate turnout numbers recently provided by the Census could impact things somewhat, but the direction likely varies by state.

In any case, I'm working on a version 2.0 of the model, and I hope to have it finished before I head back to university at the end of August.

I'd be very interested in seeing what you would generate for 2012 at the county level with your model.

Another interesting thing I just noticed from the discussion above: I had Oktibbeha whites as 23% Obama in 2012; your 2016 model shows 27% Clinton - a deviation from the general rule of thumb of difference between our two models. I remember that when I attempted to generate a "swing" map between our two models, there were a lot of counties in MS that swung to Clinton compared to my Obama 2012 model, which I thought was interesting. I remember having some questions about my initial model in MS when I was working on the project and believe I posted about it somewhere, but I honestly can't recall what exactly.

I might try to do a 2012 model someday, but it's going to be a big time investment (so I'll likely have to hold off for awhile). I'm using 2015 ACS data as my reference point for 2016, and it seems improper that I would use anything other than 2010 data for 2012. My 2016 project would provide nothing to expedite the process of creating a 2012 model besides knowing what formulas to use.

I don't think there would be too much difference with your model in any case, probably just a marginally better Romney performance in inner cities / suburbs, and a marginally worse Romney performance in rural areas. The only places where it might make a substantial difference are very minority heavy areas. For example, you had Obama at 89% of the White vote in the Bronx, which I think isn't in concert with reality given that Romney won many of the precincts bordering Eastchester Bay. Romney didn't win the White vote in the Bronx, but Obama's numbers are likely closer to something like 70%.

As for the Mississippi results, I imagine modeling White and Black turnout can make a relatively big difference given how racially polarized it is there. It will be interesting to see if the v.2 of my model has a higher or lower Clinton percentage of the White vote in Oktibbeha compared to v1.

May I just briefly interrupt the thread to congratulate both Griffin and Reagente on the excellent work you have both done your respective projects....

Studies like these are what first got me into Atlas way back in '08, as a poster after years of lurking, and I'll need to bookmark your respective studies for further references later on other topics....

Interestingly enough it appears that Mississippi does have precinct level results easily available online for '16, so I would imagine it's a feasible exercise (Although definitely labor intensive) to match these against Census Data to "test" county level modelling of "White" and "Black" support as a control point against national exit polling and VAP by ethnicity.

In precinct level work I've done on other topics, I believe Tennessee also has a complete county level precinct data set, although Mississippi is a more attractive starting point, simply because it is a much smaller state by population.

Anyways---- just wanted to say many thanks to the both you, for all of the hard work, time, energy, "blood sweat and tears" that obviously went into these projects!!!!!   

[SaneDemocrat]

Western North Carolina

[Adam Griffin]

If we want to expand the definition of what constitutes "Democratic" to merely partisan registration and/or primary participation, then you can probably find a few remaining examples via the 2018 primaries.

Again and at least in 2018, not too different from some of the areas discussed last year: western NC, random auxiliary Old Black Belt counties, a few Dixiecratic relics in Southwest AR & the FL Panhandle, and questionably Southern areas in KY & MO.

(MAP) 2016 Presidential Primary Electorate by County

(MAP) 2018 Primary Electorate by County

[cvparty]

does watauga nc count

[DINGO Joe]

does watauga nc count

I don't think so.  Forty percent of the county has a bachelor's degree or higher.  That's not the rural South.

[RINO Tom]

does watauga nc count

I don't think so.  Forty percent of the county has a bachelor's degree or higher.  That's not the rural South.

Does education level make somewhere inherently not "rural"?  I don't think anyone would have a problem calling, say, ski country "rural."

[Politician]

does watauga nc count

I don't think so.  Forty percent of the county has a bachelor's degree or higher.  That's not the rural South.

Does education level make somewhere inherently not "rural"?  I don't think anyone would have a problem calling, say, ski country "rural."

Shhh, Atlas thinks all educated voters will vote Dem and all rural voters will vote GOP, so an educated rural county is an impossibility to them.

[RI]

does watauga nc count

I don't think so.  Forty percent of the county has a bachelor's degree or higher.  That's not the rural South.

Does education level make somewhere inherently not "rural"?  I don't think anyone would have a problem calling, say, ski country "rural."

In that case, the answer to OP's question is yes: small counties dominated by colleges. If you're going to count Watauga County, NC, then you'd also need to count Oktibbeha County, MS (Starkville has a lower density than Boone, NC).

[DINGO Joe]

does watauga nc count

I don't think so.  Forty percent of the county has a bachelor's degree or higher.  That's not the rural South.

Does education level make somewhere inherently not "rural"?  I don't think anyone would have a problem calling, say, ski country "rural."

Well, Wautauga is a Micropolitan statistical area according to the Census Bureau and has tripled in size over the last forty years, so there are many reasons to look at it as not rural.  At what point did Johnson Co Iowa stop being rural?

[DINGO Joe]

does watauga nc count

I don't think so.  Forty percent of the county has a bachelor's degree or higher.  That's not the rural South.

Does education level make somewhere inherently not "rural"?  I don't think anyone would have a problem calling, say, ski country "rural."

Shhh, Atlas thinks all educated voters will vote Dem and all rural voters will vote GOP, so an educated rural county is an impossibility to them.

Wautauga used to be a historically Republican mountain county in NC, but it's population has tripled and is substantially more educated than the counties that surround it and it votes D now, because yes, educated voters vote D now. 

[RINO Tom]

does watauga nc count

I don't think so.  Forty percent of the county has a bachelor's degree or higher.  That's not the rural South.

Does education level make somewhere inherently not "rural"?  I don't think anyone would have a problem calling, say, ski country "rural."

Well, Wautauga is a Micropolitan statistical area according to the Census Bureau and has tripled in size over the last forty years, so there are many reasons to look at it as not rural.  At what point did Johnson Co Iowa stop being rural?

I don't know anything about the county, so I am not disagreeing with you; I am disagreeing that "rural" and "low education" are attached at the hip.  Even if there were a 100% correlation between the two, it's not the lack of education that makes an area rural.  Areas to the west and south of downtown Chicago are not rural just because a huge percent of the people haven't even finished high school, let a lone college.

[DINGO Joe]

does watauga nc count

I don't think so.  Forty percent of the county has a bachelor's degree or higher.  That's not the rural South.

Does education level make somewhere inherently not "rural"?  I don't think anyone would have a problem calling, say, ski country "rural."

Well, Wautauga is a Micropolitan statistical area according to the Census Bureau and has tripled in size over the last forty years, so there are many reasons to look at it as not rural.  At what point did Johnson Co Iowa stop being rural?

I don't know anything about the county, so I am not disagreeing with you; I am disagreeing that "rural" and "low education" are attached at the hip.  Even if there were a 100% correlation between the two, it's not the lack of education that makes an area rural.  Areas to the west and south of downtown Chicago are not rural just because a huge percent of the people haven't even finished high school, let a lone college.

Obviously, there are less educated parts of urban areas (which have more variety and diversity than rural areas) and there are small college towns, Grinnell or Decorah, in counties that you'd still have to regard as rural (though a more urbane rural than say an Oelwein or Pella) but obviously given the high rate of education in Wautauga it's clearly retaining some people after graduation and whatever they're doing goes beyond a rural economy (though there is a recreational component to Wautauga's economy).   

Probably a more interesting juxtaposition is Randolph and Chatham counties which are adjacent to each other with Chatham being closer to the Triangle and Randolph being south of Greensboro.  Randolph has twice the population of Chatham (140,000 to 70,000), but Chatham is a fast growing area increasingly influenced by the Triangle economy and has a college degree rate of 40% while Randolph really doesn't have many commuters, has minimal growth and has a college degree rate of 15%.  Which one is more urban (or urbane) or rural? 

[Cuca_Beludo]

Share of the white vote in 2016:


I think Western North Carolina is the only place Democrats still get more than 30% of the white vote.

Jackson Co 39%
Transylvania Co 34%
Madison Co 34%
Haywood Co 33%
Swain Co 31%

Whites in Hamilton (TN), Knox (TN), Cobb (GA) and Gwinnett (GA) are more Republican than whites in rural Western NC. Pretty impressive.

I don't understand what happens in this area. Anyone care to explain? Lol

[DINGO Joe]

Share of the white vote in 2016:


I think Western North Carolina is the only place Democrats still get more than 30% of the white vote.

Jackson Co 39%
Transylvania Co 34%
Madison Co 34%
Haywood Co 33%
Swain Co 31%

Whites in Hamilton (TN), Knox (TN), Cobb (GA) and Gwinnett (GA) are more Republican than whites in rural Western NC. Pretty impressive.

I don't understand what happens in this area. Anyone care to explain? Lol

They've been able to attract relatively educated and affluent people there, including retirees, because it's nice (doesn't have the environmental degradation that you find in coal mining Appalachia) and it has a strong collection of cultural and educational resources, and it's also very environmental.  Put it all together and we all know how educated people vote these days.

[Averroës Nix]

The interminable debate over what is rural isn't particularly interesting.

I think everyone would agree with the following: Small population areas will vote for Democrats even in the absence of a substantial number of non-white voters provided their economy attracts residents from and orients those places toward large metros. Examples include places with colleges, ski resorts, or coastal property.

As of 2016-18, with even Perry County, IN flipping in a presidential year, the exceptions to this rule are vanishingly few, even though Griffin's partisan participation map remains relevant to understanding politics in large portions of many states.

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

Share of the white vote in 2016:


I think Western North Carolina is the only place Democrats still get more than 30% of the white vote.

Jackson Co 39%
Transylvania Co 34%
Madison Co 34%
Haywood Co 33%
Swain Co 31%

Whites in Hamilton (TN), Knox (TN), Cobb (GA) and Gwinnett (GA) are more Republican than whites in rural Western NC. Pretty impressive.

I don't understand what happens in this area. Anyone care to explain? Lol

They've been able to attract relatively educated and affluent people there, including retirees, because it's nice (doesn't have the environmental degradation that you find in coal mining Appalachia) and it has a strong collection of cultural and educational resources, and it's also very environmental.  Put it all together and we all know how educated people vote these days.

These takes are spicy. Trump won a plurality of college-educated whites in 2016 and in the south that would of been a clear majority because of how skewed the white population is in general to the R's. Acting like college-educated whites are a monolithic group is absurd.