What early results tomorrow will cause you to freakout?
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  What early results tomorrow will cause you to freakout?
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Author Topic: What early results tomorrow will cause you to freakout?  (Read 4119 times)
Hammy
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« Reply #25 on: November 08, 2016, 03:14:56 AM »
« edited: November 08, 2016, 03:18:34 AM by Hammy »

If Virginia is too close to call while North Carolina is called for Trump instantly.

There's no way in hell the latter will happen. Former would definitely be worrying though.

VA is no doubt solid Hillary, but are we really expecting it to be called at poll closing time? Doesn't NOVA take like 4 hours to report?

No, I don't expect it to be called when the polls close. But there's a big difference between too early to call and too close to call.

Is too early usually due to poor exit polling data? I've been following elections since 2000 but I've never found a real conclusive answer.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #26 on: November 08, 2016, 03:20:14 AM »

If Virginia is too close to call while North Carolina is called for Trump instantly.

There's no way in hell the latter will happen. Former would definitely be worrying though.

VA is no doubt solid Hillary, but are we really expecting it to be called at poll closing time? Doesn't NOVA take like 4 hours to report?

No, I don't expect it to be called when the polls close. But there's a big difference between too early to call and too close to call.

Is too early usually due to poor exit polling data? I've been following elections since 2000 but I've never found a real conclusive answer.

From what I can tell, too early is due to poor exit poll data, no exit poll data, or an exit poll that shows a mid-high single digit race. Of course it varies, but this is the general pattern I've recognized. Too close tends to mean the race is within 5 points. Of course there are exceptions like Polnut pointed out, but I think they might've just been abundantly cautious with VA that year due to the fact that it was a solid R state prior to 2008.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #27 on: November 08, 2016, 06:52:38 AM »

GA and VA - Republicans come in first.
PA, NC, IA - Democrats come in first.


IN is relatively stable throughout the election.

One thing to consider, Indiana will start reporting results at 6:00 PM, but nobody is going to call it until 7:00 PM when the last sliver of the state closes. So a good chunk of the results will be in when they do call it.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #28 on: November 08, 2016, 06:59:17 AM »

I'd have a cat5 melt down if
-Florida was 50% in and Trump was up 2% at 8:30pm est
And -PA was 10% in and Trump was up about the same at that time.

Hillary can't win and lose PA without Florida.

Latter is impossible. Philly counts first. If Trump wins the state, it'll be a gradual comeback throughout the night after massively trailing early on. That's what happened in the 2010 Senate race.

Sestak 74 Toomey 26, was where the night started if memory serves me.

Not just Philly, but Democratic areas as well in many of the counties. For instance Crawford's first returns came back with Sestak ahead and in true Atlas panic first fashion, people ran with that to the bank to assume Sestak had won. However, by the time the county finished, Toomey had won it 61-39, which while soft was right where he needed to be.

So when people look at key counties, make sure they are complete or near complete before drawing conclusions.
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morgieb
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« Reply #29 on: November 08, 2016, 07:00:25 AM »

Judging by NCYankee's post, Trump taking an early lead in North Carolina would have me petrified.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #30 on: November 08, 2016, 07:08:09 AM »

Judging by NCYankee's post, Trump taking an early lead in North Carolina would have me petrified.

Hagan was leading by as much as 7% or so. And in fact her lead actually increased to her peak around 30% in, which led many on CNN to talk about her likely winning, only for her lead to rapidly evaporate to a tie around 80% reporting or so and Tillis ultimately won by 1%.

I am regretting having re-watched CNN's 2014 coverage so long ago now (August) because I cannot remember all the states.


Trump has to start in the mid 60s to have a chance in GA/VA and he has to remain above 60% as long as possible, because those leads rapidly decline between 50% reporting and 90% reporting as Atlanta/NOVA roll in.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #31 on: November 08, 2016, 07:17:03 AM »

GA and VA - Republicans come in first.
PA, NC, IA - Democrats come in first.


IN is relatively stable throughout the election.

One thing to consider, Indiana will start reporting results at 6:00 PM, but nobody is going to call it until 7:00 PM when the last sliver of the state closes. So a good chunk of the results will be in when they do call it.

IN isn't stable at all. Mourdock was leading for quite a while early on in 2012.
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ag
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« Reply #32 on: November 08, 2016, 07:17:49 AM »

I do not need results. I am panicking already.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #33 on: November 08, 2016, 07:23:26 AM »

I do not need results. I am panicking already.

How is that productive? Serious question.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #34 on: November 08, 2016, 07:23:53 AM »

GA and VA - Republicans come in first.
PA, NC, IA - Democrats come in first.


IN is relatively stable throughout the election.

One thing to consider, Indiana will start reporting results at 6:00 PM, but nobody is going to call it until 7:00 PM when the last sliver of the state closes. So a good chunk of the results will be in when they do call it.

IN isn't stable at all. Mourdock was leading for quite a while early on in 2012.

Really?

I was thinking more of 2008 where I seemed to recall McCain up by one or two and then it settled two or three points towards the Democrats.

Compared to VA which goes from 65% GOP to 51% Dem over the course of that or PA where it went from 26% Toomey to 51% Toomey, IN is very stable by comparison.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #35 on: November 08, 2016, 07:25:50 AM »

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IceSpear
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« Reply #36 on: November 08, 2016, 07:29:52 AM »

GA and VA - Republicans come in first.
PA, NC, IA - Democrats come in first.


IN is relatively stable throughout the election.

One thing to consider, Indiana will start reporting results at 6:00 PM, but nobody is going to call it until 7:00 PM when the last sliver of the state closes. So a good chunk of the results will be in when they do call it.

IN isn't stable at all. Mourdock was leading for quite a while early on in 2012.

Really?

I was thinking more of 2008 where I seemed to recall McCain up by one or two and then it settled two or three points towards the Democrats.

Compared to VA which goes from 65% GOP to 51% Dem over the course of that or PA where it went from 26% Toomey to 51% Toomey, IN is very stable by comparison.

Well, it wasn't a huge swing like that, but iirc Mourdock was still slightly ahead or they were deadlocked with something like ~20% in. Donnelly ultimately ended up winning by 6.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #37 on: November 08, 2016, 07:32:03 AM »

GA and VA - Republicans come in first.
PA, NC, IA - Democrats come in first.


IN is relatively stable throughout the election.

One thing to consider, Indiana will start reporting results at 6:00 PM, but nobody is going to call it until 7:00 PM when the last sliver of the state closes. So a good chunk of the results will be in when they do call it.

IN isn't stable at all. Mourdock was leading for quite a while early on in 2012.

Really?

I was thinking more of 2008 where I seemed to recall McCain up by one or two and then it settled two or three points towards the Democrats.

Compared to VA which goes from 65% GOP to 51% Dem over the course of that or PA where it went from 26% Toomey to 51% Toomey, IN is very stable by comparison.

Well, it wasn't a huge swing like that, but iirc Mourdock was still slightly ahead or they were deadlocked with something like ~20% in. Donnelly ultimately ended up winning by 6.

It might be because Mourdock lost a bunch of areas that normally go Republican and likely voted for McCain, or under performed in them producing a wider shift over the course of the night.
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ag
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« Reply #38 on: November 08, 2016, 07:45:57 AM »

I do not need results. I am panicking already.

How is that productive? Serious question.

It is not productive. But I can do nothing with myself or with anything that is going on. I have to go to a funeral now, and I feel like we all may be envying the dead soon.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #39 on: November 08, 2016, 07:51:19 AM »

i am freaking out since months...increasingly.

will be better tmrrw one way or another.
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ag
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« Reply #40 on: November 08, 2016, 08:00:49 AM »

i am freaking out since months...increasingly.

will be better tmrrw one way or another.

If shyte happens, alas, there will still be nothing to do. There is nowhere to run.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #41 on: November 08, 2016, 08:09:07 AM »

i am freaking out since months...increasingly.

will be better tmrrw one way or another.

If shyte happens, alas, there will still be nothing to do. There is nowhere to run.

Let the sky fall
When it crumbles
We will stand tall
Face it all together
At skyfall
That skyfall

Wink
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Person Man
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« Reply #42 on: November 08, 2016, 08:26:40 AM »

i am freaking out since months...increasingly.

will be better tmrrw one way or another.

If shyte happens, alas, there will still be nothing to do. There is nowhere to run.

Let the sky fall
When it crumbles
We will stand tall
Face it all together
At skyfall
That skyfall

Wink
At least you will know what will happen.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #43 on: November 08, 2016, 09:51:28 AM »

If Elliott County in Kentucky breaks it's 150 year record streak of voting Democrat I'll have a moment of silence. Tongue
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pho
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« Reply #44 on: November 08, 2016, 10:00:15 AM »

I will be watching how Trump does in the early PA returns from Philadelphia. If Clinton doesn't stack the vote there, she will likely lose the state.
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Holmes
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« Reply #45 on: November 08, 2016, 10:02:14 AM »

If Trump is doing poorly in early counting in IN.

Might not be a good indication. Marion and Lake are slow to report compared to more conservative counties.
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mencken
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« Reply #46 on: November 08, 2016, 10:27:27 AM »

If networks take a long time to call North Carolina, then I'll be worried. It's a state that's supposed to vote Republican, so if Trump can't take it easily, then I doubt he will take Florida.

In 2012, I remember sensing Romney's defeat when he and Obama stayed 50%-50% in NC for hours.

Hence, I'm hoping the networks call NC early and easily.

Networks will dawdle on calling any Trump-favorable state, so do not hold your breath.
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Chaddyr23
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« Reply #47 on: November 08, 2016, 11:49:56 AM »

I am a worrier so basically everything tbh LOL. Realistically if Clinton is behind or within 1.5% of the early vote in FL
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PresidentTRUMP
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« Reply #48 on: November 08, 2016, 02:03:25 PM »

Well not counting FL, I would say if they announce NC for Hillary Trump basically loses.
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« Reply #49 on: November 08, 2016, 02:33:37 PM »

If trump is doing good in PA
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