What early results tomorrow will cause you to freakout?

[IceSpear]

If Virginia is too close to call while North Carolina is called for Trump instantly.

There's no way in hell the latter will happen. Former would definitely be worrying though.

[IceSpear]

If Virginia is too close to call while North Carolina is called for Trump instantly.

There's no way in hell the latter will happen. Former would definitely be worrying though.

Not saying it will, but I'd almost certainly have a meltdown if it did

Yeah, but you might as well say if Vermont is called for Trump when the polls closed. They're about as likely as each other. 0% = 0%.

[IceSpear]

Well, Indiana is one of the first states to come in, and if it's called before other states start to come in, I'll be concerned.

Why? It was called for Romney immediately in 2012. If it's called for Trump immediately, it would just mean it isn't a massive D landslide, which most of us already know isn't going to happen.

[IceSpear]

I'd have a cat5 melt down if
-Florida was 50% in and Trump was up 2% at 8:30pm est
And -PA was 10% in and Trump was up about the same at that time.

Hillary can't win and lose PA without Florida.

Latter is impossible. Philly counts first. If Trump wins the state, it'll be a gradual comeback throughout the night after massively trailing early on. That's what happened in the 2010 Senate race.

[IceSpear]

If Virginia is too close to call while North Carolina is called for Trump instantly.

There's no way in hell the latter will happen. Former would definitely be worrying though.

VA is no doubt solid Hillary, but are we really expecting it to be called at poll closing time? Doesn't NOVA take like 4 hours to report?

No, I don't expect it to be called when the polls close. But there's a big difference between too early to call and too close to call.

[IceSpear]

If Virginia is too close to call while North Carolina is called for Trump instantly.

There's no way in hell the latter will happen. Former would definitely be worrying though.

VA is no doubt solid Hillary, but are we really expecting it to be called at poll closing time? Doesn't NOVA take like 4 hours to report?

No, I don't expect it to be called when the polls close. But there's a big difference between too early to call and too close to call.

Is too early usually due to poor exit polling data? I've been following elections since 2000 but I've never found a real conclusive answer.

From what I can tell, too early is due to poor exit poll data, no exit poll data, or an exit poll that shows a mid-high single digit race. Of course it varies, but this is the general pattern I've recognized. Too close tends to mean the race is within 5 points. Of course there are exceptions like Polnut pointed out, but I think they might've just been abundantly cautious with VA that year due to the fact that it was a solid R state prior to 2008.

[IceSpear]

GA and VA - Republicans come in first.
PA, NC, IA - Democrats come in first.


IN is relatively stable throughout the election.

One thing to consider, Indiana will start reporting results at 6:00 PM, but nobody is going to call it until 7:00 PM when the last sliver of the state closes. So a good chunk of the results will be in when they do call it.

IN isn't stable at all. Mourdock was leading for quite a while early on in 2012.

[IceSpear]

GA and VA - Republicans come in first.
PA, NC, IA - Democrats come in first.


IN is relatively stable throughout the election.

One thing to consider, Indiana will start reporting results at 6:00 PM, but nobody is going to call it until 7:00 PM when the last sliver of the state closes. So a good chunk of the results will be in when they do call it.

IN isn't stable at all. Mourdock was leading for quite a while early on in 2012.

Really?

I was thinking more of 2008 where I seemed to recall McCain up by one or two and then it settled two or three points towards the Democrats.

Compared to VA which goes from 65% GOP to 51% Dem over the course of that or PA where it went from 26% Toomey to 51% Toomey, IN is very stable by comparison.

Well, it wasn't a huge swing like that, but iirc Mourdock was still slightly ahead or they were deadlocked with something like ~20% in. Donnelly ultimately ended up winning by 6.