Kansas 2018: Jenkins Eying a Run

[tmthforu94]

Because it is never too early...


Kansas may have another competitive gubernatorial race in 2018. Brownback remains to be the least popular governor in the country, so it'll be interesting to see how another Republican does on the ballot.

On the Democratic side, I have heard rumors that Paul Davis is eying another run. Not sure who else Democrats would run that could have a serious shot, though curious to hear what the Kansas Democrats on the forum have to say.

The Republican primary is likely to be a battle. Originally, I expected Mike Pompeo and Lynn Jenkins to battle it out, but Pompeo made a surprising statement today when he essentially endorsed Jenkins for governor. Kris Kobach is also considering a run, though I have heard that he would prefer a spot in the Trump administration or a Senate seat. He wants to become a national figure, and after the struggles Brownback has had, I think he'd prefer taking the Cruz route, though when opportunity knocks...

AG Derek Schmidt is also rumored to be considering a run. I like him and think he'd be a great governor, though not sure he would have the statewide support (despite being a statewide official). Tim Huelskamp (lol) is also said to be considering a run, as well as Treasurer Ron Estes and even Lt. Governor Jeff Colyer, though I highly doubt he actually takes the plunge.

The Senate won't be up, but I expect there will be a lot of primary challenges on the Republican side. Should be another dramatic primary season - thank heavens we don't have a Senate race to deal with.

Will edit this as it progresses. Kansas' primary isn't until August 2018, so we have a while before people will start declaring.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

A republican will win.

[IceSpear]

A republican will win.

bold

[smoltchanov]

Because it is never too early...


Kansas may have another competitive gubernatorial race in 2018. Brownback remains to be the least popular governor in the country, so it'll be interesting to see how another Republican does on the ballot.

On the Democratic side, I have heard rumors that Paul Davis is eying another run. Not sure who else Democrats would run that could have a serious shot, though curious to hear what the Kansas Democrats on the forum have to say.

The Republican primary is likely to be a battle. Originally, I expected Mike Pompeo and Lynn Jenkins to battle it out, but Pompeo made a surprising statement today when he essentially endorsed Jenkins for governor. Kris Kobach is also considering a run, though I have heard that he would prefer a spot in the Trump administration or a Senate seat. He wants to become a national figure, and after the struggles Brownback has had, I think he'd prefer taking the Cruz route, though when opportunity knocks...

AG Derek Schmidt is also rumored to be considering a run. I like him and think he'd be a great governor, though not sure he would have the statewide support (despite being a statewide official). Tim Huelskamp (lol) is also said to be considering a run, as well as Treasurer Ron Estes and even Lt. Governor Jeff Colyer, though I highly doubt he actually takes the plunge.

The Senate won't be up, but I expect there will be a lot of primary challenges on the Republican side. Should be another dramatic primary season - thank heavens we don't have a Senate race to deal with.

Will edit this as it progresses. Kansas' primary isn't until August 2018, so we have a while before people will start declaring.

Who is who ideologically? Kansas is well known for it's "conservative vs moderate" (relatively) battles...

[Kingpoleon]

Lynn Jenkins is a moderate.

Anyone else could feasibly lose to Joshua Svaty, Mark Parkinson, or Paul Davis.

[smoltchanov]

Lynn Jenkins is a moderate.

She WAS a moderate before running for House, but AFAIK became much more conservative since...

[VPH]

Paul Davis needs to run. If by some miracle Kobach or Huelskamp run and win the primary, Davis would probably win.

[Heisenberg]

^Didn't Huelskamp say he wants a rematch against Marshall for his old House seat LOL.

[tmthforu94]

Was a little hectic last week, so didn't respond.

In my opinion, none of these are "moderate" in the cloth of the moderates who primaried Republicans back in August. I don't think any of these people have been outspoken against Brownback. The nominee will need to be someone who can acknowledge disagreements with the governor without fully condemning him.

Jenkins would probably be considered the most moderate because of her time in the state legislature and has Treasurer. Her record in Congress is conservative, though she does have some bi-partisan achievements to point to. I'd put Derek Schmidt in the same box as Jenkins - overall a likable guy that doesn't seem too conservative. Estes is a bit of a wildcard, but overall I'd lump him with Jenkins and Schmidt.

On the far right you have Kris Kobach and Tim Huelskamp. Kobach, as we all know, has come under fire for his voter I.D. laws and could make a general election tricky for him. Huelskamp is a total loser who is currently deciding whether to rematch Marshall or run for governor - my guess is that few people actually like him and he doesn't run for anything. Colyer is probably DOA as the Lt. Governor, though is far less offensive than Brownback to most voters.

Parkinson won't run and I imagine Davis will. Svaty would definitely be a wildcard - if he had proper funding and organization, I think he could do well, as he'd be able to make a play at rural votes. That was Davis' problem in 2014 and I suspect it will be the same in 2018: he isn't good at connecting with rural areas. His only shot is to run up the margins in eastern Kansas. President Trump's approval ratings will probably have a factor, but overall, I would rate Kansas as Lean Republican.

[KingSweden]

Svaty would be a good way for Ds to retouch with rural voters again

[tmthforu94]

Svaty would be a good way for Ds to retouch with rural voters again

Agreed. Overall, the Kansas Democrats need a complete overhaul. I get that having a presidential election hurts them, but Brownback is easily the least popular governor in the country and our legislature has abysmal approval ratings. Republicans were able to oust some of the extreme conservatives in the primaries, but Democrats made weak gains in the legislature, especially the Senate. The state party (from my perspective) appears to be too far to the left. It seeks to appease the liberal Lawrence crowd because that is the base, but forgets that it needs support from all parts of the state to be successful.

[smoltchanov]

Thanks for really good info, tmthforu94! And fully agree about parties: i said many times (and this elections have shown it too) that California's Democratic party must be VERY different from Alabama's (if both want to be successfull), and Vermont's Republican - from Mississippi's....

P.S. And yes - i know the limits of possible. As much as i want Barbara Bollier to be a Governor of Kansas or, at least, KS-03 congresswoman, it's not especially likely to happen....

[Kingpoleon]

http://www.salina.com/news/local/nobody-from-nowhere-svaty-shocks-graduates-with-strong-message-about/article_d0fa894d-369b-5146-90d3-03ddbd6e0fae.html

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I hope that's not quoting too much, but his speech was apparently very well received. Svaty appears to be a supremely powerful speaker.

In my opinion, none of these are "moderate" in the cloth of the moderates who primaried Republicans back in August. I don't think any of these people have been outspoken against Brownback. The nominee will need to be someone who can acknowledge disagreements with the governor without fully condemning him.

The closest thing to a moderate I can think of is William Kassebaum, Sandy Praeger, and Terrie Huntington.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Is Jenkins now pro-life?  She has a 100% pro-life record in the House, but some GOP pro-choice groups have endorsed her in the past.

[publicunofficial]

Democrats should run Svaty, so we can see him lose by the same margin as Paul Davis and we can finally give up on saving the people of Kansas from their self-imposed terrible governance.