Slate/Votecastr real time election projections

[Holmes]

So... I'm confused. Those maps were just the election day vote, without the early vote taken into consideration? That would be bad for Trump.

[Sigh144]

Florida more Democratic than Nevada?

Right?!?!?!

[Wiz in Wis]

Florida more Democratic than Nevada?

Right?!?!?!

At this point it's fair to say that this model is quite bearish on Clinton in NV, and quite bullish in FL. Again, this all needs to be taken with huge grains of salt and skepticism.

[Tintrlvr]

So... I'm confused. Those maps were just the election day vote, without the early vote taken into consideration? That would be bad for Trump.

Who knows. They seem to be really screwing this up for the big debut of their model.

[Angrie]

What is up with Menominee County WI

Modeling...

Yes. When you have a small subgroup that is way overconcentrated in some particular way, you will get weird results. It works by averaging things out, so it will be most accurate on larger scales and for larger groups.

[Ebsy]

The maps aren't right and should be disregarded until they state that they have been fixed.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Florida more Democratic than Nevada?

Right?!?!?!

At this point it's fair to say that this model is quite bearish on Clinton in NV, and quite bullish in FL. Again, this all needs to be taken with huge grains of salt and skepticism.

It is pretty strange. I though that NV Hispanics would be underestimated much more than in FL. But so far it is other way around...

[Devout Centrist]

Florida more Democratic than Nevada?

Right?!?!?!

At this point it's fair to say that this model is quite bearish on Clinton in NV, and quite bullish in FL. Again, this all needs to be taken with huge grains of salt and skepticism.

It is pretty strange. I though that NV Hispanics would be underestimated much more than in FL. But so far it is other way around...

Remember, the model takes polls into account with their estimates.

[afleitch]

It's not entirely clear what the model as actually modeling at this point.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Florida more Democratic than Nevada?

Right?!?!?!

At this point it's fair to say that this model is quite bearish on Clinton in NV, and quite bullish in FL. Again, this all needs to be taken with huge grains of salt and skepticism.

It is pretty strange. I though that NV Hispanics would be underestimated much more than in FL. But so far it is other way around...

Remember, the model takes polls into account with their estimates.

I know, but I assumed that since they used voter file, they'd get much better result in reaching all groups. If they are really from Obama team.

[Devout Centrist]

Florida more Democratic than Nevada?

Right?!?!?!

At this point it's fair to say that this model is quite bearish on Clinton in NV, and quite bullish in FL. Again, this all needs to be taken with huge grains of salt and skepticism.

It is pretty strange. I though that NV Hispanics would be underestimated much more than in FL. But so far it is other way around...

Remember, the model takes polls into account with their estimates.

I know, but I assumed that since they used voter file, they'd get much better result in reaching all groups. If they are really from Obama team.

Wait, I thought they said it was similar to Obama's data operation, not his actual model.

[Mike88]

Why are we still discussing this piece of garbage?

Any leaks of exit polls yet?

[The Other Castro]

Why are we still discussing this piece of garbage?

Any leaks of exit polls yet?

They're literally locked in a room until 5PM. Any leaks should be considered fake.

[Absolution9]

This is probably garbage but based on current position I would estimate that Trump would probably win NV (down only 7k counting early), OH (down only 30K), and IA (down 20K).  Almost certainly lose FL and WI.  Lean toward losing NH and PA but not certain by any stretch.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Wait, I thought they said it was similar to Obama's data operation, not his actual model.

I didn't say it. Just that some of them were from Obama's team.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I think we can safely say that the big loser of election 2016 is this forecasting model.

Can't wait for 5 PM.

[Mike88]

Why are we still discussing this piece of garbage?

Any leaks of exit polls yet?

They're literally locked in a room until 5PM. Any leaks should be considered fake.

So, in just an hour or hour and a half, we will get the FIRST REAL NUMBERS of this election.

[The Other Castro]

Why are we still discussing this piece of garbage?

Any leaks of exit polls yet?

They're literally locked in a room until 5PM. Any leaks should be considered fake.

So, in just an hour or hour and a half, we will get the FIRST REAL NUMBERS of this election.

Well, it'll still be just a poll. The first real numbers come after 6 PM.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

              Clinton's lead in thousands    Obama's lead      ~% counted (deleted)
Florida       +278                                +84                                                
Iowa          +19                                  +92                                                            
Newada      +7                                    +68                                                            
NH             +16                                  +39                            
Ohio           +29                                  +166                          
PA              +103                                +309                          
Wi              +149                                 +213                          

[Adriano Chiká]

Pennsylvania: C+3
Clinton 48%
Trump 45%

Florida: C+3
Clinton 48%
Trump 45%

Colorado: C+2
Clinton 46%
Trump 44%

Iowa: T+1
Clinton 45%
Trump 46%

Nevada: C+1
Clinton 46%
Trump 45%

Ohio: T+1
Clinton 45%
Trump 46%

Wisconsin: C+5
Clinton 48%
Trump 43%

New Hampshire: C+4
Clinton 47%
Trump 43%

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Well, it'll still be just a poll. The first real numbers come after 6 PM.

Exactly!

[Mike88]

Why are we still discussing this piece of garbage?

Any leaks of exit polls yet?

They're literally locked in a room until 5PM. Any leaks should be considered fake.

So, in just an hour or hour and a half, we will get the FIRST REAL NUMBERS of this election.

Well, it'll still be just a poll. The first real numbers come after 6 PM.

I know. But, those poll numbers will be more reliable than this "projections".

[Mallow]

Pennsylvania: C+3
Clinton 48%
Trump 45%

Florida: C+3
Clinton 48%
Trump 45%

Colorado: C+2
Clinton 46%
Trump 44%

Iowa: T+1
Clinton 45%
Trump 46%

Nevada: C+1
Clinton 46%
Trump 45%

Ohio: T+1
Clinton 45%
Trump 46%

Wisconsin: C+5
Clinton 48%
Trump 43%

New Hampshire: C+4
Clinton 47%
Trump 43%

Which would mean:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/wOZZQ

Where are these numbers from? Are they projections for end-of-day, or the current state?

[Desroko]

I've been telling people this every election, but...

1. Early exits are absolutely terrible
2. Adjusted exits pegged to the final vote are not particularly good

[EliteLX]

I have a great feeling these live data numbers are junk products of a wishy washy model, lol.