Slate/Votecastr real time election projections

[Desroko]

I have a great feeling these live data numbers are junk products of a wishy washy model, lol.

The 3rd party numbers look high. The data I saw for early vote had Johnson/Stein collapsing pretty much everywhere. (I didn't get numbers for Utah.)

[muon2]

Pennsylvania: C+3
Clinton 48%
Trump 45%

Florida: C+3
Clinton 48%
Trump 45%

Colorado: C+2
Clinton 46%
Trump 44%

Iowa: T+1
Clinton 45%
Trump 46%

Nevada: C+1
Clinton 46%
Trump 45%

Ohio: T+1
Clinton 45%
Trump 46%

Wisconsin: C+5
Clinton 48%
Trump 43%

New Hampshire: C+4
Clinton 47%
Trump 43%

Which would mean:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/wOZZQ

Where are these numbers from? Are they projections for end-of-day, or the current state?

This is the current state based on votes cast, not a projection.

[Wiz in Wis]

Pennsylvania: C+3
Clinton 48%
Trump 45%

Florida: C+3
Clinton 48%
Trump 45%

Colorado: C+2
Clinton 46%
Trump 44%

Iowa: T+1
Clinton 45%
Trump 46%

Nevada: C+1
Clinton 46%
Trump 45%

Ohio: T+1
Clinton 45%
Trump 46%

Wisconsin: C+5
Clinton 48%
Trump 43%

New Hampshire: C+4
Clinton 47%
Trump 43%

Which would mean:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/wOZZQ

Where are these numbers from? Are they projections for end-of-day, or the current state?

This is the current state based on votes cast, not a projection.

Still seems fishy with them saying Clinton ahead in total votes in IA/OH

[Mallow]

Pennsylvania: C+3
Clinton 48%
Trump 45%

Florida: C+3
Clinton 48%
Trump 45%

Colorado: C+2
Clinton 46%
Trump 44%

Iowa: T+1
Clinton 45%
Trump 46%

Nevada: C+1
Clinton 46%
Trump 45%

Ohio: T+1
Clinton 45%
Trump 46%

Wisconsin: C+5
Clinton 48%
Trump 43%

New Hampshire: C+4
Clinton 47%
Trump 43%

Which would mean:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/wOZZQ

Where are these numbers from? Are they projections for end-of-day, or the current state?

This is the current state based on votes cast, not a projection.

From votecastr for election day alone, I take it? Because the numbers don't match the election day+early voting numbers they have on their site:
http://www.slate.com/votecastr_election_day_turnout_tracker.html

[PresidentTRUMP]

Pennsylvania: C+3
Clinton 48%
Trump 45%

Florida: C+3
Clinton 48%
Trump 45%

Colorado: C+2
Clinton 46%
Trump 44%

Iowa: T+1
Clinton 45%
Trump 46%

Nevada: C+1
Clinton 46%
Trump 45%

Ohio: T+1
Clinton 45%
Trump 46%

Wisconsin: C+5
Clinton 48%
Trump 43%

New Hampshire: C+4
Clinton 47%
Trump 43%

If accurate, CLinton won, I was wrong thought Trump would take it but wasn't to be. Sucks, but ill live, congrats to the left.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

[EliteLX]

Pennsylvania: C+3
Clinton 48%
Trump 45%

Florida: C+3
Clinton 48%
Trump 45%

Colorado: C+2
Clinton 46%
Trump 44%

Iowa: T+1
Clinton 45%
Trump 46%

Nevada: C+1
Clinton 46%
Trump 45%

Ohio: T+1
Clinton 45%
Trump 46%

Wisconsin: C+5
Clinton 48%
Trump 43%

New Hampshire: C+4
Clinton 47%
Trump 43%

If accurate, CLinton won, I was wrong thought Trump would take it but wasn't to be. Sucks, but ill live, congrats to the left.

Trump is still likely not to get to 270, but these models and early vote counts do not paint a strong picture of results for tonight at all, lol.

Great way to make wrong conclusions is to base them on drastically skewed early voting or a couple hours worth of election day votes cast based in part with turnout projections .etc .etc .etc.

[PeteB]

With these numbers (which I do not particularly believe), Trump will plateau at about 220-230 EV.  And that is assuming he takes OH, IA, AZ, GA, UT....

[win win]

nobody knows how they came up with these numbers
dont take it too seriously as the real betting market hasn't moved today (yes, the people who actually bet real money)

[Erich Maria Remarque]

With these numbers (which I do not particularly believe), Trump will plateau at about 220-230 EV.  And that is assuming he takes OH, IA, AZ, GA, UT....

On the other hand, if you assume 3% error, it might be todo o nada for Trump

[IceSpear]

It's worth noting that for all the fuss, the betting markets have not moved more than a single percent in the last 24 hours. Chill out guys, these things are just a very unreliable experiment.

[Wiz in Wis]

It's worth noting that for all the fuss, the betting markets have not moved more than a single percent in the last 24 hours. Chill out guys, these things are just a very unreliable experiment.

I think this is right. We have no idea how accurate these models are. There are anecdotes about Turnout in FL that point to a big Hillary day in certain counties (Broward, Orange), but those are verified by gov't websites, not guesses by these firms. Everyone needs to wait till votes are counted before we can see how these did.

[SirMuxALot]

nobody knows how they came up with these numbers
dont take it too seriously as the real betting market hasn't moved today (yes, the people who actually bet real money)

Those of us old enough remember the betting markets went to the high 90s for Kerry in the middle of the day in 2004.  I remember making a good chunk of pizza money day trading the Bush futures from around 10 or so back above 70 in only a few hours.

So history tells us the betting markets don't necessarily have better early information than anyone else does.

[Vern]

where are y'all finding maps?

[Wiz in Wis]

We're going on 2 hours here with no updates and outdated/confusing maps. This is a bust.

[The Free North]

where are y'all finding maps?

They took them doom presumably because people where misinterpreting what they were showing.

[Mallow]

We're going on 2 hours here with no updates and outdated/confusing maps. This is a bust.

I think the maps make sense if they're (still) just election day only maps. But like you said, still no update in quite a while.

[Tintrlvr]

We're going on 2 hours here with no updates and outdated/confusing maps. This is a bust.

Yup, Votecastr is failing hard. They said they expected to be able to call the election around 5pm on Election Day. Oops. They can't even keep their website updated.

[EliteLX]

It's worth noting that for all the fuss, the betting markets have not moved more than a single percent in the last 24 hours. Chill out guys, these things are just a very unreliable experiment.

[Lief 🗽]

Clinton now ahead in all states...

[Mallow]

Clinton now ahead in all states...

Are you talking about this data?
http://www.slate.com/votecastr_election_day_turnout_tracker.html

If so, she's been ahead in all states all along (except the EV Ohio numbers).

[Ebsy]

Their website has not updated in hours. Talk about a flop.

[Storebought]

Project ORCA

[Moderate Pennsylvanian]

Estimates as of 4:40 EST:

FL: C-49 T-45
IA: C-47 T-44
NH: C-47 T-43
NV: C-47 T-45
OH: C-46 T-45
PA: C-48 T-45
WI: C-49 T-42

[EliteLX]

Yeah this is a disaster of a project.