Slate/Votecastr real time election projections

[win win]

Are early votes usually lean D or lean R?

[RJEvans]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  37s38 seconds ago
So Stein on the ballot here (she's not), bizarre Clark numbers and wrong number (off by 150K) of reg voters there. Model probs, @votecastr?

Everyone relax.

Ummm hello they have Jill Stein at 1.7% in Nevada. JILL STEIN IS NOT ON THE BALLOT! This is a sham.

So this, then I'm out for good.

[JerryArkansas]

I am not going to trust this, Stein isnt on the ballot in Nevada

And Trump within 6 in Clark.  It is sh**t.

[Dereich]

Heeey, the Florida projection has Duval as the only tossup county in the state. My vote really REALLY matters.

[Xing]

So the sky is falling and a supermassive black hole is approaching? Got it.

I think I'll enjoy coming back to read this thread after the election is over. Until then, have fun, everyone.

[The Free North]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  37s38 seconds ago
So Stein on the ballot here (she's not), bizarre Clark numbers and wrong number (off by 150K) of reg voters there. Model probs, @votecastr?

Everyone relax.

Its a model. It includes Stein but doesnt account for the fact that shes not on the ballot. In NV that might skew the numbers of course, but it doesnt say much about the strength of their analysis regarding Trump and Clinton and the numbers overall. Now if the inputs (voter registration, etc) are completely off then you have a 'garbage in - garbage out' scenario which means all of this is just nonsense and that is possible as well.

[afleitch]

[alomas]

Are early votes usually lean D or lean R?

Democratic.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Are early votes usually lean D or lean R?

it depends on the state. there are threads on this board about that topic, although i'm not linking b/c mobile

[afleitch]

Are early votes usually lean D or lean R?

Democratic.

If you're talking about early in the day, then no. A model like this made Obama think he was down in Ohio until after 5pm when after work voters came out.

[Devils30]

This is mostly bs, but the PA county map looks like a Hillary win.

[bilaps]

Well CNN poll had Trump ahead in Clark. I think it's bullsh**t but if this shows only 6% Clinton lead there then who knows.

[JA]

I'm not sure what Arch's activities were on that thread, but I know that I invested nothing in those numbers. All they showed were early and absentee voting by party identification; that didn't prove anything to me in terms of votes for Clinton or Trump.

So you are saying, you weren't "projecting" NV, CO and VA in to Clinton's pocket based on EV. Or Florida?

This model does basically the same, but uses sophisticated algorithms. Obama used similar

Yes, that is what I'm saying.

[Ebsy]

Obviously going to ignore this trash.

[Devout Centrist]

I am not going to trust this, Stein isnt on the ballot in Nevada

Are you sh**tting me? They included Stein in Nevada?!

[SunSt0rm]

They have increased CLinton lead in Florida, Duval is lean democratic now

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Haha, Dems were OK with CO projection, where Hillary did much better than Obama, but now it a trash because of Nevada

[Eraserhead]

I just think this whole thing looks like trash. It's a failed experiment.

[muon2]

One thing to remember about this model is that it is like the play-by-play for a sports game. It will move over the day based on when certain voters cast their votes. However if there are large leads that build up early, it will show just like a team that scores a lot early in the game.

[The Free North]

I just think this whole thing looks like trash. It's a failed experiment.

Or its the greatest thing ever and we'll be making fun of people who thought it was garbage for weeks after this is all over.

[Angrie]

Haha, Dems were OK with CO projection, where Hillary did much better than Obama, but now it a trash because of Nevada

CO is not a projection, it is the modeled vote of individual people matched against the voter file who have already actually voted.

This is apparently different from other states where they do not have voter file individual level data on who has voted, but only know the total # of people who have voted in particular precincts (but not necessarily which individuals have voted in those precincts).

And including Stein in Nevada is of course obviously a dumb screw up.

And there is a difference in what early vote means in different states.

So basically there are large differences in what they are reporting for different states.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

One thing to remember about this model is that it is like the play-by-play for a sports game. It will move over the day based on when certain voters cast their votes. However if there are large leads that build up early, it will show just like a team that scores a lot early in the game.

But should Nevada's EV not be much more D-friendly?

[Devout Centrist]

Duval now lean D.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Haha, Dems were OK with CO projection, where Hillary did much better than Obama, but now it a trash because of Nevada

CO is not a projection, it is the modeled vote of individual people matched against the voter file who have already actually voted.

This is apparently different from other states where they do not have voter file individual level data on who has voted, but only know the total # of people who have voted in particular precincts (but not necessarily which individuals have voted in those precincts).

And including Stein in Nevada is of course obviously a dumb screw up.

And there is a difference in what early vote means in different states.

So basically there are large differences in what they are reporting for different states.

But those with large EV, as Nevada? Does they not use voter file for EV there?

As I undrstand they use voter file for all EV?

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So it is projection. By using voter file. Other only by their model of turnout and polls

[JerryArkansas]

Haha, Dems were OK with CO projection, where Hillary did much better than Obama, but now it a trash because of Nevada

CO is not a projection, it is the modeled vote of individual people matched against the voter file who have already actually voted.

This is apparently different from other states where they do not have voter file individual level data on who has voted, but only know the total # of people who have voted in particular precincts (but not necessarily which individuals have voted in those precincts).

And including Stein in Nevada is of course obviously a dumb screw up.

And there is a difference in what early vote means in different states.

So basically there are large differences in what they are reporting for different states.

But those with large EV, as Nevada? Does they not use voter file for EV there?

They are missing votes both there and in Florida.