Slate/Votecastr real time election projections
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Author Topic: Slate/Votecastr real time election projections  (Read 23043 times)
Fusionmunster
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« Reply #275 on: November 08, 2016, 02:11:26 PM »

Can we please unsticky this thread?
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #276 on: November 08, 2016, 02:11:31 PM »

I don't understand why they "estimate" who people are voting for instead of asking people...
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Sigh144
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« Reply #277 on: November 08, 2016, 02:11:51 PM »

These numbers are beyond inefficient to hold off the working class/after work Trump vote. Looks like 2000 all over again at the very best.
in Ohio?

Everywhere. If these are anywhere near correct Trump is going to sweep the swing states.


Shes up  by a few points in every state according to this model with 60-75% of the vote in each state.

You dont make up those kinds of numbers very often with that much of the vote in.

Again though, this model is estimating here. Still , I take these numbers as solid for Clinton, disappointing a bit in Ohio though.

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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #278 on: November 08, 2016, 02:11:58 PM »

These numbers are beyond inefficient to hold off the working class/after work Trump vote. Looks like 2000 all over again at the very best.
in Ohio?

Everywhere. If these are anywhere near correct Trump is going to sweep the swing states.

This makes zero sense. Please stop posting/concern trolling.

The next person who accuses me of trolling is getting reported.
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bilaps
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« Reply #279 on: November 08, 2016, 02:13:13 PM »

I don't understand why they "estimate" who people are voting for instead of asking people...

They asked them before election in polls with huge sample sizes.
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Sigh144
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« Reply #280 on: November 08, 2016, 02:13:32 PM »


Zoom out on the page.........

If you're using a windows desktop, hold down the control key and use the mouse scrolling wheel up and down to adjust zoom, its very easy.


I cannot see the margin in Hamilton because it is below the line of the graphic and zooming on Chrome doesn't alter the boundary. From what I can see, the margins in the other marginals, Lake, Ottawa, Wood, the low Dem margins in Lucas and Trumball/Mahoning and Trump ahead in Ashtabula, something I mentioned as a possibly a few months ago are certainly very good for any Republican. Even the margins in Colombus metro aren't too bad, though those collar counties could be higher especially if Franklin gets up into the 60's for Clinton in the end.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #281 on: November 08, 2016, 02:13:40 PM »

These numbers are beyond inefficient to hold off the working class/after work Trump vote. Looks like 2000 all over again at the very best.
in Ohio?

Everywhere. If these are anywhere near correct Trump is going to sweep the swing states.

This makes zero sense. Please stop posting/concern trolling.

The next person who accuses me of trolling is getting reported.

Your either a troll or need to learn to not panic over every tiny development.
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Mallow
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« Reply #282 on: November 08, 2016, 02:14:04 PM »


Then why would their model have Clinton ahead? That doesn't make sense--their numbers are based on that map. Just because a map that looks like that might have historically been a R win doesn't mean it would in this election. It's completely reasonable (in fact, exactly as expected) to assume that rural/suburban counties would shift towards Trump while urban counties would shift towards Clinton, meaning fewer "blue" counties but a similar overall margin.
This isn't an estimate of the final vote, it's an estimate of the current vote

Then why does it not match the values above? See IA, for instance--the numbers above have Clinton ahead 444,300 to Trump's 421,396. The map below has Clinton 45%, Trump 46%. They can't both represent an estimate of the "current vote".
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #283 on: November 08, 2016, 02:14:33 PM »

If Trump is losing Florida by 4%, he needs to win the rest by 12% margin Sad
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #284 on: November 08, 2016, 02:14:55 PM »

These numbers are beyond inefficient to hold off the working class/after work Trump vote. Looks like 2000 all over again at the very best.
in Ohio?

Everywhere. If these are anywhere near correct Trump is going to sweep the swing states.

This makes zero sense. Please stop posting/concern trolling.

The next person who accuses me of trolling is getting reported.

Your either a troll or need to learn to not panic over every tiny development.

Why are there 12 pages if no one takes these numbers seriously? If this was a 3 page thread I wouldn't even have opened it. I realize they aren't actual results.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #285 on: November 08, 2016, 02:15:14 PM »

These numbers are beyond inefficient to hold off the working class/after work Trump vote. Looks like 2000 all over again at the very best.
in Ohio?

Everywhere. If these are anywhere near correct Trump is going to sweep the swing states.


Shes up  by a few points in every state according to this model with 60-75% of the vote in each state.

You dont make up those kinds of numbers very often with that much of the vote in.

Again though, this model is estimating here. Still , I take these numbers as solid for Clinton, disappointing a bit in Ohio though.



Didn't this happen in 2012 with Ohio? I thought it got very close once 60% of the vote was in.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #286 on: November 08, 2016, 02:15:33 PM »

I've learned to put very little stock in these kinds of predictors. I certainly believe the Democrats have the early vote advantage, but they usually do.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #287 on: November 08, 2016, 02:16:31 PM »

I cannot see the margin in Hamilton because it is below the line of the graphic and zooming on Chrome doesn't alter the boundary. From what I can see, the margins in the other marginals, Lake, Ottawa, Wood, the low Dem margins in Lucas and Trumball/Mahoning and Trump ahead in Ashtabula, something I mentioned as a possibly a few months ago are certainly very good for any Republican. Even the margins in Colombus metro aren't too bad, though those collar counties could be higher especially if Franklin gets up into the 60's for Clinton in the end.

Zoom out on the page.........

If you're using a windows desktop, hold down the control key and use the mouse scrolling wheel up and down to adjust zoom, its very easy.

That zooms the whole page. It is not allowing me to view the counties at the bottom of the maps.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #288 on: November 08, 2016, 02:16:41 PM »

Could we all please calm down and not attack each other about this?  Let's face it, this is a new and unproven technique.  It's interesting to follow, but we will have no idea how accurate or useful it actually was until the full election results are available.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #289 on: November 08, 2016, 02:18:22 PM »

Could we all please calm down and not attack each other about this?  Let's face it, this is a new and unproven technique.  It's interesting to follow, but we will have no idea how accurate or useful it actually was until the full election results are available.

Thank you.
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Sigh144
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« Reply #290 on: November 08, 2016, 02:18:28 PM »

I cannot see the margin in Hamilton because it is below the line of the graphic and zooming on Chrome doesn't alter the boundary. From what I can see, the margins in the other marginals, Lake, Ottawa, Wood, the low Dem margins in Lucas and Trumball/Mahoning and Trump ahead in Ashtabula, something I mentioned as a possibly a few months ago are certainly very good for any Republican. Even the margins in Colombus metro aren't too bad, though those collar counties could be higher especially if Franklin gets up into the 60's for Clinton in the end.

Zoom out on the page.........

If you're using a windows desktop, hold down the control key and use the mouse scrolling wheel up and down to adjust zoom, its very easy.

That zooms the whole page. It is not allowing me to view the counties at the bottom of the maps.

if you zoom out far enough it does, its tricky but i was able to do it. Zoom out too far it goes away , not enough its still not visible.

LOL.

We are total nerds here. Love it.

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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #291 on: November 08, 2016, 02:19:03 PM »

Could we all please calm down and not attack each other about this?  Let's face it, this is a new and unproven technique.  It's interesting to follow, but we will have no idea how accurate or useful it actually was until the full election results are available.
Only those who don't like/buy it are attacking. If you don't like, stop commenting it and calling it junk.

One post is enough.
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PresidentTRUMP
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« Reply #292 on: November 08, 2016, 02:21:34 PM »

Any updates out of NC or MI?
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #293 on: November 08, 2016, 02:22:27 PM »

For those asking for better links to state pages, try this link, and change the 2 letter section at the end of the URL for the state of interest.

http://votecastr.us/widgets/#/states/OH/
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Mallow
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« Reply #294 on: November 08, 2016, 02:22:40 PM »


Then why would their model have Clinton ahead? That doesn't make sense--their numbers are based on that map. Just because a map that looks like that might have historically been a R win doesn't mean it would in this election. It's completely reasonable (in fact, exactly as expected) to assume that rural/suburban counties would shift towards Trump while urban counties would shift towards Clinton, meaning fewer "blue" counties but a similar overall margin.
This isn't an estimate of the final vote, it's an estimate of the current vote

Then why does it not match the values above? See IA, for instance--the numbers above have Clinton ahead 444,300 to Trump's 421,396. The map below has Clinton 45%, Trump 46%. They can't both represent an estimate of the "current vote".

Anybody know why this is?
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #295 on: November 08, 2016, 02:26:11 PM »

I was keeping the Vice livestream in the background for a while, but I've decided to ignore Votecastr entirely for the rest of the day as their so-called experts and leaders keep saying stupid things, most recently calling Northampton County, PA "an exurb of Philly" (only the latest of a series of stupid comments, such as "there are only two counties in Colorado with non-white voters"), that make it clear they don't know what they're talking about and are likely making dumb decisions in their modeling as a result.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #296 on: November 08, 2016, 02:29:13 PM »

They don't even really have EV. They "estimate" it Huh

SAD!

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PresidentTRUMP
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« Reply #297 on: November 08, 2016, 02:35:29 PM »

If Slate is right early returns look bad for Trump. Not feeling great looking at them right now.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #298 on: November 08, 2016, 02:41:18 PM »

If Slate is right early returns look bad for Trump. Not feeling great looking at them right now.

Yep. In fact, it more or less look like 538, but FL is "gone" for now.

So Trump might just hope on polling error/Shy Trumpistas, otherwise he's done Smiley
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Angrie
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« Reply #299 on: November 08, 2016, 02:42:46 PM »

They don't even really have EV. They "estimate" it Huh

SAD!

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So basically, the lists of voter ID #s of people who have already voted is reported in a decentralized manner by country clerks/election administrators and the like, and some of them are slow in reporting this. So they may have data that is up to date for some counties, but a day or two behind for other counties. And perhaps entirely absent in other countries (more likely to be small rural counties with an election administration consisting of one person who also does 5 other things).

And there will be other such variation from state to state as well.
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