Slate/Votecastr real time election projections

[Ebsy]

And the bad news for Trump keeps coming:

Update: 3:06 p.m.: The state maps previously displayed on this page represented only Election Day data but not early vote estimates. They have been removed and will be reposted when they are updated.

You freaking mean they just allotted the damn early vote based on today's vote.  God damn they are amateur hour.

Thought it was a bit wacky.

[The Free North]

Boo no more maps.

[fairfaxgator]

Hello All!

My first post. Great forum!

Here in Fairfax County only took about 10 min for me to vote at my polling place.

Saw more people take the DEM ballot that the PUB one but then again it's FFX County.

Thanks.

FFX Gator.

[Tintrlvr]

It appears the Slate site updated FL total votes now... with Clinton just under 90k votes away from Obama's total in 2012. Trump still 270k away from Romney total.

If this model is correct, the polls were very wrong in FL.

For what it's worth, I've been tracking Hillsborough County's votes by registration all day. Early on, today's votes were 34.2% Democrats, 39.4% Republicans. Currently they're 34.7% Democrats, 37.9% Republicans. Basically, the Republicans have led by about 3,500 votes all day. Add today's votes on top of the early votes and Democrats currently still have a greater than 25,000 vote advantage in Hillsborough County.

Agree with this basically.

The Republicans actually led by a bit more than -4,000 (D minus R) at noon (and had been making steady gains over the course of the morning). Around noon, the Democrats started regaining some ground and had the Republicans down to about -3,550 by 1pm with the lunchtime vote. The Republicans have been slowly inching up since then, now at about -3,650. That all matches with what we should expect: Republicans do well with morning voters and off-hours voters (both being heavy on retirees) and the Democrats do well at peak times around lunch and (especially) in the evening. I expect the Democrats will start gaining ground around 5pm and take the lead before polls close, though hard to say exactly where they will end up. I'd hazard a guess at somewhere between +5,000 and +10,000 for on-the-day voters.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

And the bad news for Trump keeps coming:

Update: 3:06 p.m.: The state maps previously displayed on this page represented only Election Day data but not early vote estimates. They have been removed and will be reposted when they are updated.

Why it is a bad news? It is good, if the polls were right.

[MasterJedi]

And the bad news for Trump keeps coming:

Update: 3:06 p.m.: The state maps previously displayed on this page represented only Election Day data but not early vote estimates. They have been removed and will be reposted when they are updated.

Why it is a bad news?

Because the election day vote will be much more conservative than the early votes.

[Wiz in Wis]

And the bad news for Trump keeps coming:

Update: 3:06 p.m.: The state maps previously displayed on this page represented only Election Day data but not early vote estimates. They have been removed and will be reposted when they are updated.

You freaking mean they just allotted the damn early vote based on today's vote.  God damn they are amateur hour.

Actually, they did have maps based just on early vote earlier today (Wisconsin/Iowa/Ohio were much more blue, FL about the same) and then those maps turned quite a bit more Trump friendly. I think they are saying they forgot to merge the data from Map 1 into Map 2, and that Map 2 was just ED vote. I think.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Well a lot of Republicans vote after 5 or 6 when they come home from work. But also young people vote later in the day. So hard to say what's going on (even assuming this isn't junk).

Is there any data about voters pattern i.e. what time od day R vs D usually vote?

[SirMuxALot]

Saw more people take the DEM ballot that the PUB one but then again it's FFX County.

This confuses me.  There's separate party ballots for a general election?

[Classic Conservative]

What is up with Menominee County WI

[King]

lol Hillary has surpassed Obama's raw 2012 Florida total in this thing already

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Hello All!

My first post. Great forum!

Here in Fairfax County only took about 10 min for me to vote at my polling place.

Saw more people take the DEM ballot that the PUB one but then again it's FFX County.

Thanks.

FFX Gator.

they're letting alligators vote? RIGGED!

[muon2]

And the bad news for Trump keeps coming:

Update: 3:06 p.m.: The state maps previously displayed on this page represented only Election Day data but not early vote estimates. They have been removed and will be reposted when they are updated.

You freaking mean they just allotted the damn early vote based on today's vote.  God damn they are amateur hour.

Actually, they did have maps based just on early vote earlier today (Wisconsin/Iowa/Ohio were much more blue, FL about the same) and then those maps turned quite a bit more Trump friendly. I think they are saying they forgot to merge the data from Map 1 into Map 2, and that Map 2 was just ED vote. I think.

That's the way I see it too. Their biggest problem seems to be integrating the actual data model with the multi-platform displays.

[heatcharger]

I'm approaching this with caution but wow Trump looks really low-energy in the WOW areas of Wisconsin.

[Wiz in Wis]

What is up with Menominee County WI

Modeling...

[The Other Castro]

Hello All!

My first post. Great forum!

Here in Fairfax County only took about 10 min for me to vote at my polling place.

Saw more people take the DEM ballot that the PUB one but then again it's FFX County.

Thanks.

FFX Gator.

they're letting alligators vote? RIGGED!

Meanwhile the crocodiles, predominantly Republican, were rejected. It's a rigged system folks.

[MasterJedi]

Because the election day vote will be much more conservative than the early votes.

Yeah. So why is this bad?

Because they were modeling the early vote to look like the election day vote. Come on, seriously, you can be this dense.

[Tintrlvr]

Well a lot of Republicans vote after 5 or 6 when they come home from work. But also young people vote later in the day. So hard to say what's going on (even assuming this isn't junk).

Is there any data about voters pattern i.e. what time od day R vs D usually vote?

Lief is trolling. It's the other way around. The Democrats do best with late-in-the-day voters, Republicans do best with midday and morning voters. This is because Republicans do better with retirees (who can vote at any time of day and far outnumber students) and because Democrats do best with low-income minority voters, who tend to have fixed and inflexible shifts so usually vote after work. Historically it was also because working Republican voters tended to have more white collar jobs so were more able to get away from work to vote midday, though that may be less true this time around. Obviously there are exceptions in certain areas based on demographics, but this is the overall pattern. The effect is not huge but it is noticeable.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Because the election day vote will be much more conservative than the early votes.

Yeah. So why is this bad?

Because they were modeling the early vote to look like the election day vote. Come on, seriously, you can be this dense.

Sorry, misread it. I thought they had only EV on maps, not ED

But the numbers are still right?

[Crumpets]

lol Hillary has surpassed Obama's raw 2012 Florida total in this thing already

Now a full 60,000 ahead of Obama. Trump about 100,000 behind Romney.

[Mallow]

And the bad news for Trump keeps coming:

Update: 3:06 p.m.: The state maps previously displayed on this page represented only Election Day data but not early vote estimates. They have been removed and will be reposted when they are updated.

You freaking mean they just allotted the damn early vote based on today's vote.  God damn they are amateur hour.

Actually, they did have maps based just on early vote earlier today (Wisconsin/Iowa/Ohio were much more blue, FL about the same) and then those maps turned quite a bit more Trump friendly. I think they are saying they forgot to merge the data from Map 1 into Map 2, and that Map 2 was just ED vote. I think.

Exactly, and this explains why the IA numbers at the top of the page (which have Clinton ahead) didn't match the map on the bottom (which had Trump leading).

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Well a lot of Republicans vote after 5 or 6 when they come home from work. But also young people vote later in the day. So hard to say what's going on (even assuming this isn't junk).

Is there any data about voters pattern i.e. what time od day R vs D usually vote?

Lief is trolling. It's the other way around. The Democrats do best with late-in-the-day voters, Republicans do best with midday and morning voters. Obviously there are exceptions in certain areas based on demographics, but this is the overall pattern. The effect is not huge but it is noticeable.

Haha, ok. I didn't know. It is so strange that you in USA vote on workday

[Sigh144]

IF you go to that url soneone earlier was saying to go to which takes you directly to the state map the numbers have moved towards trump a bit.

Not sure if it means anything since they said they were working on changing the models.

Scary day!!

Im terrified that this diseased animal may win.

http://votecastr.us/widgets/#/states/CO/

Just change the State appreviations

[Tintrlvr]

Well a lot of Republicans vote after 5 or 6 when they come home from work. But also young people vote later in the day. So hard to say what's going on (even assuming this isn't junk).

Is there any data about voters pattern i.e. what time od day R vs D usually vote?

Lief is trolling. It's the other way around. The Democrats do best with late-in-the-day voters, Republicans do best with midday and morning voters. Obviously there are exceptions in certain areas based on demographics, but this is the overall pattern. The effect is not huge but it is noticeable.

Haha, ok. I didn't know. It is so strange that you in USA vote on workday

Agreed. It's particularly egregious in states that close polls as early as 7pm so that some people simply can't get to the polls after work.

[Yank2133]

lol Hillary has surpassed Obama's raw 2012 Florida total in this thing already

Now a full 60,000 ahead of Obama. Trump about 100,000 behind Romney.

Damn.