Opinion of Nate Silver's Forecast Map
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Question: Opinion of Nate Silver's Forecast Map
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FM		  
#2
HM		  
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Author Topic: Opinion of Nate Silver's Forecast Map  (Read 2396 times)
AGA
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« on: November 08, 2016, 10:28:53 AM »
Here is his map on the day of the election. How accurate is it?
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The Dowager Mod
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« Reply #1 on: November 08, 2016, 10:29:59 AM »
Same as my map, So FM I guess.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #2 on: November 08, 2016, 10:34:50 AM »
HM because I mostly agree with it and I don't like that.
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Rand
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« Reply #3 on: November 08, 2016, 10:37:17 AM »
This seems to be the consensus map, though Baron von Pussengropen would dispute the fact that the upper midwest, Pennsylvania, Maine, and New Hampshire aren't shaded bright Republican red (blue).
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Cali123
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« Reply #4 on: November 08, 2016, 10:40:03 AM »
If this is either 100% or very close I'll... Well, I don't know what I would do. But it would shock me.
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bagelman
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« Reply #5 on: November 08, 2016, 10:42:48 AM »
He'll get a couple, or at least one, state(s) wrong
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #6 on: November 08, 2016, 10:44:19 AM »
Fair, but I think Hillary will do slightly better.
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adrac
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« Reply #7 on: November 08, 2016, 10:56:38 AM »
Final map is great, probabilities are off.
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Xing
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« Reply #8 on: November 08, 2016, 10:58:54 AM »
Not a bad map, though the probabilities and margins are way off in several states.
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Person Man
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« Reply #9 on: November 08, 2016, 11:00:50 AM »
« Edited: November 08, 2016, 11:02:53 AM by Spicy Purrito( (((☭ )))-MA) »


Battlegrounds are those where no candidate has move than 75% chance.


538- 72%
Upshot- 84%
Wang  95%

I think it is somewhere in the 80s.

Trump needs every single tossup for the biggest upset ever.
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EliteLX
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« Reply #10 on: November 08, 2016, 11:06:16 AM »
Quote from: Castro on November 08, 2016, 10:34:50 AM
HM because I mostly agree with it and I don't like that.

This about sums up red avatars on here.
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Deblano
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« Reply #11 on: November 08, 2016, 11:10:33 AM »
Quote from: EliteLX on November 08, 2016, 11:06:16 AM
Quote from: Castro on November 08, 2016, 10:34:50 AM
HM because I mostly agree with it and I don't like that.

This about sums up red avatars on here.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #12 on: November 08, 2016, 11:14:27 AM »
I'm not sure about NC and ME-02, but it will probably nail everything else.

Anyone want to take the time to add in his predicted percentages?
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #13 on: November 08, 2016, 11:31:31 AM »
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #14 on: November 08, 2016, 11:32:55 AM »
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AGA
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« Reply #15 on: November 08, 2016, 02:58:49 PM »
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #16 on: November 08, 2016, 02:59:36 PM »
Freedom map, still think Clinton pulls out Ohio.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #17 on: November 08, 2016, 03:35:31 PM »
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #18 on: November 08, 2016, 03:36:30 PM »
Quote from: MasterJedi on November 08, 2016, 02:59:36 PM
Freedom map, still think Clinton pulls out Ohio.

If it were the 538 map plus Ohio, I would be very happy.
8-)
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #19 on: November 08, 2016, 03:43:28 PM »
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #20 on: November 08, 2016, 03:53:13 PM »
Quote from: Chrome on November 08, 2016, 10:28:53 AM
Here is his map on the day of the election. How accurate is it?




It's too Trumpy in states like Arizona, Ohio, Iowa and possibly Alaska, but otherwise nice. Smiley
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No War, but the War on Christmas
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« Reply #21 on: November 08, 2016, 04:03:53 PM »
Someone explain to me how Hillary has a chance in North Carolina if black turnout is truly down and Obama couldn't even win the state in 2012 with his level of turnout; don't see how it's possible.

Looks good to me otherwise.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #22 on: November 08, 2016, 04:05:32 PM »
Quote from: iBizzBee on November 08, 2016, 04:03:53 PM
Someone explain to me how Hillary has a chance in North Carolina if black turnout is truly down and Obama couldn't even win the state in 2012 with his level of turnout; don't see how it's possible.

Looks good to me otherwise.

College whites.
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J. J.
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« Reply #23 on: November 08, 2016, 05:42:57 PM »
Quote from: Castro on November 08, 2016, 04:05:32 PM
Quote from: iBizzBee on November 08, 2016, 04:03:53 PM
Someone explain to me how Hillary has a chance in North Carolina if black turnout is truly down and Obama couldn't even win the state in 2012 with his level of turnout; don't see how it's possible.

Looks good to me otherwise.

College whites.

In North Carolina? 
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #24 on: November 08, 2016, 05:46:14 PM »
Quote from: J. J. on November 08, 2016, 05:42:57 PM
Quote from: Castro on November 08, 2016, 04:05:32 PM
Quote from: iBizzBee on November 08, 2016, 04:03:53 PM
Someone explain to me how Hillary has a chance in North Carolina if black turnout is truly down and Obama couldn't even win the state in 2012 with his level of turnout; don't see how it's possible.

Looks good to me otherwise.

College whites.

In North Carolina? 

Yes. Quite a number of them.
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