2016 Senate and U.S House Election Results OFFICIAL THREAD

[Brittain33]

Let's go!

[DavidB.]

Thank you, Brittain!

I am worrying about FL-Sen given the Votecastr turnout tracker figures. Happy for HRC that she's doing so well, but she's going to win anyway. Of course we don't even know if these figures are right and of course many Hispanics will vote Clinton/Rubio, but I'm not comfortable and won't be until that race is called. I hope I'm not proven right about my relunctance in ever calling this race tilt or lean R.

[heatcharger]

Wow Jim Gray leads Paul in Bath County!

[Zanas]

For now Bayh is running more than 7 pts ahead of Clinton, but still way behind Young. Having no knowledge about internal Indiana geography, I wouldn't jump to conclusions though.

[MT Treasurer]

Tim Scott (R-SC)
Rand Paul (R-KY)
Pat Leahy (D-VT)

projected to win. 37D, 32R so far.

[MT Treasurer]

Todd Young leading by 6 in the exit poll.

[Zanas]

The vibe I'm getting from this is that quite a number of somewhat conservative women turned out to vote against Trump in the presidential race, which could in return boost GOP candidates down ballot.

[Miles]

Looks like we're heading for a recount in NH, ATM.

[Mr. Smith]

My accolades are in order, I believe.

I do admit that I got Feingold wrong though, certainly didn't expect him, Ross, and Kander to come out about the same.

[user12345]

Johnson winning makes me sick to my stomach. Nice to see how close Kander kept it, he was the highest vote-getter for Democrats in Missouri. NH is going to be tight.

[Vega]

If any Senate candidate had the potential to over-preform Clinton it was Feingold. His loss is a big deal and a cause for great sadness.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

John Mica, Scott Garrett and some other long term Republicans lost.


Meanwhile Will Hurd and Carlos Curbelo survived. Not what I was expecting.

[Pandaguineapig]

I have mixed feelings about a trump win but watching bayh, Feingold, and Murphy go down in flames made my night

[Vosem]

Curbelo winning by double-digits while Ros-Lehtinen was held to a narrow triumph is...not what was expected.

There's a lot to be said on this topic. Outside CA, it looks like the only uncalled House race is NE-2, where historically after the 70% marker is passed things don't shift a lot, so I'd assume Bacon wins. In CA, typically the necessary marker for Republicans to cross on E-Day is 52; if they get over 52, they can usually withstand the flow of post-E-Day votes, while Republicans under it usually don't. This points to a likely final result of no change for Republicans in CA, even though Denham and Issa would end up winning by less than a point.

Denham and Issa could still both lose if the flow is heavier than usual. I have no idea why the election hasn't been called for Knight in CA-25 yet.

One last intraparty race to be called -- in a massive upset, Nanette Barragan is leading Isadore Hall, in a majority-Hispanic-population, historically-majority-African-American-electorate district. I'd assume Barragan's voters to be lower-propensity Hispanics, so that her margin increases after E-Day.

[Vosem]

As for NH-Sen, the very liberal college town of Keene is still out. It should be enough to flip the presidential race in NH to Clinton. Whether it can quite get Hassan over Ayotte remains to be seen, but this one should end up very, very close. Could be shades of 1974.

[Young Conservative]

Ron Johnson!!!!!!1!!1!1!1!1!1!!1!1!1i knew he was gaining and had momentum and somwhat expected it but still it made my night.

[Torie]

Well my original seat by seat prediction a month ago proved spot on - in the number of seats. When I made my final prediction of 8-12 Dem pickups, that was simply an odds thing ala Nate Silver, since there were so many more marginal Pub seats. The problem though is that I picked some wrong seats, NJ-05 (which I would have put in the lose column by my last prediction but not in the first 6 seat one, along with NV-03 (which I also thought would go down when there was that gush of Hispanics in the early voting(, and then the mild surprise, FL-07. On the other hand, TX-23 and NB-02 went the other way in mild surprises, along with MN-02 (more of a surprise, as Trump performed way beyond expectations in the southern MN suburbs perhaps). I see Walz in MN-01 where Trump cleaned up, won by only a point. That would have been a huge upset if he had gone down.

[Miles]

I see Walz in MN-01 where Trump cleaned up, won by only a point. That would have been a huge upset if he had gone down.

All three of the rural MN Democrats held on narrowly despite Trump winning each of their CDs by >15%.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

In the other thread as well:


2016 House Elections



Yellow= Too close to call

Grey= Runoff

[publicunofficial]

Ashford's loss is a huge bummer. Dude seemed like a model Congressman.

The loser incumbents:

Garrett - Gottheimer ran an amazing campaign, Trump didn't appear to help Republicans here.
Mica - Never seemed to realize he was facing a competitive race. Got caught sleeping. Credit to Murphy as well.
Hardy - Nevada was the lone bright spot for Democrats. Hispanic turnout in Clark was everything they were hoping for. Hardy was also somewhat of a fluke in 2014.
Dold - Trump helped a lot of incumbents. Dold wasn't one of them. Kirk being blown out didn't help either.
Ashford - Ran against someone not named Lee Terry. Try again in 2018 Brad!
Guinta - Corrupt. Hopefully he stays done this time.
Jolly - Was doomed the moment St. Petersburg was added to FL-13.

I'm assuming Bera and Issa hold on.

[Mr.Phips]

Well my original seat by seat prediction a month ago proved spot on - in the number of seats. When I made my final prediction of 8-12 Dem pickups, that was simply an odds thing ala Nate Silver, since there were so many more marginal Pub seats. The problem though is that I picked some wrong seats, NJ-05 (which I would have put in the lose column by my last prediction but not in the first 6 seat one, along with NV (which I also thought would go down when there was that gush of Hispanics in the early voting(, and then the mild surprise, FL-07. On the other hand, TX-23 and NB-02 went the other way in mild surprises, along with MN-02 (more of a surprise, as Trump performed way beyond expectations in the southern MN suburbs perhaps). I see Walz in MN-01 where Trump cleaned up, won by only a point. That would have been a huge upset if he had gone down.

The weirdest thing about TX-23 is that my calculations show that Clinton won the district 49%-46% even as Hurd was winning. 

[nclib]

Ashford's loss is a huge bummer. Dude seemed like a model Congressman.

The loser incumbents:

Garrett - Gottheimer ran an amazing campaign, Trump didn't appear to help Republicans here.
Mica - Never seemed to realize he was facing a competitive race. Got caught sleeping. Credit to Murphy as well.
Hardy - Nevada was the lone bright spot for Democrats. Hispanic turnout in Clark was everything they were hoping for. Hardy was also somewhat of a fluke in 2014.
Dold - Trump helped a lot of incumbents. Dold wasn't one of them. Kirk being blown out didn't help either.
Ashford - Ran against someone not named Lee Terry. Try again in 2018 Brad!
Guinta - Corrupt. Hopefully he stays done this time.
Jolly - Was doomed the moment St. Petersburg was added to FL-13.

I'm assuming Bera and Issa hold on.

IIRC, Mica's district was made more Dem in redistricting. The others are mainly freshmen (though Dold and Guinta had served a non-consecutive term). That leaves Scott Garrett - far-right representing a center-right NJ suburban district. Apparently he objected to money going to gay Republicans.

Assuming Bera and Issa hold on, and Repubs win the run-offs and LA-3 and LA-4, this is a 6 seat gain for the Dems in the House.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The current size of the New Republican House Majority is 239*-193. The following races are uncalled per CNN:

CA-07, where Bera (D) leads by just under 2600 votes.
CA-49, where Issa (R) leads by just over 4100 votes.
LA-04, where a runoff between Jones (D) and Johnson (R) will happen next month.

*LA-03 is also going to a runoff, but both of the candidates in the runoff are republicans.

[Pandaguineapig]

The current size of the New Republican House Majority is 239*-193. The following races are uncalled per CNN:

CA-07, where Bera (D) leads by just under 2600 votes.
CA-49, where Issa (R) leads by just over 4100 votes.
LA-04, where a runoff between Jones (D) and Johnson (R) will happen next month.

*LA-03 is also going to a runoff, but both of the candidates in the runoff are republicans.

It is taking a while for the late vote to come in, in cal it seems

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The current size of the New Republican House Majority is 239*-193. The following races are uncalled per CNN:

CA-07, where Bera (D) leads by just under 2600 votes.
CA-49, where Issa (R) leads by just over 4100 votes.
LA-04, where a runoff between Jones (D) and Johnson (R) will happen next month.

*LA-03 is also going to a runoff, but both of the candidates in the runoff are republicans.

It is taking a while for the late vote to come in, in cal it seems

I believe any vote that arrives via mail by tomorrow (Monday) can be included in the count, as long as it was postmarked on election day or earlier. Plus they do not count anything during weekends. And obviously Thanksgiving slows things down as well. So final numbers may not come out until early December in certain races.