2016 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls **live commentary thread**

[Fargobison]

Katy TurVerified account
‏@KatyTurNBC
Publicly and privately we are already hearing frustration from Trump camp about the coordination bw RNC and Team Trump. @alivitali

https://twitter.com/KatyTurNBC/status/796122448366366720

[Fusionmunster]

Sorry if somebody posted this already but NBC's exit poll shows Trump getting 8% of the black vote and 27% Hispanic. I don't remember Hillary's numbers but both were lower than Obama's in 2012.

I'd make a bet that by the end of the night, here Hispanic number will not be lower than Obamas when the exit polls get adjusted.

Probably, but he seems at least not doing much worse that Romney.
And relatively good with Black??

Your going to be disappointed.

[Tintrlvr]

I forget- do we see some IN/KY stuff at 5 CT, even if they can't call them for an hour?

They'll start reporting results then, yes, though there won't be much in the way of results for a while. No exits until 6 CT, though.

[SirMuxALot]

That non-college whites margin at R+36 is hard to believe.  If that's somehow not a typo, then we will be up late tonight.

[Mike88]

Early exit polls from 2012 (with comparison with 2008)

[Fargobison]

Latino Voters (GOP margin)
1980: -26
1988: -38
1992: -46
1996: -52
2000: -27
2004: -9
2008: -36
2012: -44
2016: -38

(exit polls)

[Gass3268]

Some rumblings from Latino Decisions that they didn't exit poll in Spanish.

[Tintrlvr]

Latino Voters (GOP margin)
1980: -26
1988: -38
1992: -46
1996: -52
2000: -27
2004: -9
2008: -36
2012: -44
2016: -38

(exit polls)

Wait until the final exits. Early exits get adjusted heavily.

[Fusionmunster]

Some rumblings from Latino Decisions that they didn't exit poll in Spanish.

I swear...

[Erich Maria Remarque]

That non-college whites margin at R+36 is hard to believe.  If that's somehow not a typo, then we will be up late tonight.

If exit-polls are right and if turnouts among non-col and coll-white are proportionally about the same as 2012, Trump's doing better among Whites than Romney

[Angrie]

That non-college whites margin at R+36 is hard to believe.  If that's somehow not a typo, then we will be up late tonight.

If accurate, it means it makes a big difference what proportion of the white vote is college educated and what proportion of it is not. A few points up or down on that in either direction in comparison to 2012 could make a quite significant difference.

[libertpaulian]

Any exit polls for Senate or Governor races?

[Ebsy]

Some rumblings from Latino Decisions that they didn't exit poll in Spanish.

I swear...

lol, this is always their problem.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Sorry if somebody posted this already but NBC's exit poll shows Trump getting 8% of the black vote and 27% Hispanic. I don't remember Hillary's numbers but both were lower than Obama's in 2012.

I'd make a bet that by the end of the night, here Hispanic number will not be lower than Obamas when the exit polls get adjusted.

Probably, but he seems at least not doing much worse that Romney.
And relatively good with Black??

Your going to be disappointed.

Are early exit-polls that bad?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Woke up now. Time for an interesting night, I guess.
Do we have any indication on what's going on yet?

[SirMuxALot]

If accurate, it means it makes a big difference what proportion of the white vote is college educated and what proportion of it is not.

Certainly, but non-college whites are a huge block (46% of the electorate, per 538's swing tool).  If Trump actually succeeded in pushing that big a margin among them, even a flat turnout rate vs. 2012 will be a big bump over Romney.

[rafta_rafta]

She needs to win Hispanics by at least 40 points to make up for lost black vote

[Devout Centrist]

Damn, I'm excited.

Who did you vote for, TN?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Woke up now. Time for an interesting night, I guess.
Do we have any indication on what's going on yet?

Reading between the lines, it seems like a narrow Clinton victory, but who knows?

[yourelection]

OK wide awake and ready for anything!

[Desroko]

Sorry if somebody posted this already but NBC's exit poll shows Trump getting 8% of the black vote and 27% Hispanic. I don't remember Hillary's numbers but both were lower than Obama's in 2012.

I'd make a bet that by the end of the night, here Hispanic number will not be lower than Obamas when the exit polls get adjusted.

Probably, but he seems at least not doing much worse that Romney.
And relatively good with Black??

Your going to be disappointed.

Are early exit-polls that bad?

Yes.

[Mike88]

Any news on gender vote?

[Mr. Morden]

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Woke up now. Time for an interesting night, I guess.
Do we have any indication on what's going on yet?

Reading between the lines, it seems like a narrow Clinton victory, but who knows?

If exit polls are correct, Trump might win EC

[NOVA Green]

From MSNBC:

blacks:
Clinton 87%
Trump 8%
other 5%

latinos:
Clinton 65%
Trump 27%
other 8%

I'm gonna go ahead and bet that Latino number is off by 5 points at least.

Agreed on the topline Latino numbers....  primary language responsiveness gap....