The Obama Coalition

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Its record:
2008: Big win
2010: Landslide defeat
2012: Solid win
2014: Big defeat
2016: Big defeat

Where do Democrats go from here now that their core coalition is unable to win more than 1/4 of the last national elections?

The Democratic Party is now in the worst state it has been since the Great Depression. That should be shocking to the entire political class.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Its record:
2008: Big win
2010: Landslide defeat
2012: Solid win
2014: Big defeat
2016: Big defeat

Where do Democrats go from here now that their core coalition is unable to win more than 1/4 of the last national elections?

I don't know what to make of all this.  I am still wondering if Hillary wins the popular vote.  Given how much of California is out they still might.  If that's the case it means Democrats have won the popular vote in 6 of the last 7 elections.

How does that square with losing the Senate, the House and the state governorships?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Its record:
2008: Big win
2010: Landslide defeat
2012: Solid win
2014: Big defeat
2016: Big defeat

Where do Democrats go from here now that their core coalition is unable to win more than 1/4 of the last national elections?

I don't know what to make of all this.  I am still wondering if Hillary wins the popular vote.  Given how much of California is out they still might.  If that's the case it means Democrats have won the popular vote in 6 of the last 7 elections.

How does that square with losing the Senate, the House and the state governorships?

You can't lose something you never had... 

? They controlled them in 2006 before Obama was elected.

[Boston Bread]

well the rust belt was part of the O coalition, they'd like to have a word. Democrats lose (even with minorities) when they are not seen as the party of working people. trade/wall street/military-industrial complex etc

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Losing party is proclaimed dead. More at 11.

[Angrie]

Its record:
2008: Big win
2010: Landslide defeat
2012: Solid win
2014: Big defeat
2016: Big defeat

Where do Democrats go from here now that their core coalition is unable to win more than 1/4 of the last national elections?

The Democratic Party is now in the worst state it has been since the Great Depression. That should be shocking to the entire political class.

Au contraire, the indication at this point is that Clinton in fact won the most support (i.e. the most votes). But even if that does not hold up, and Trump wins, he will only win narrowly. So it can certainly not be called a failure of the Democratic/Obama coalition as such, but rather a failure of the American electoral system to reflect the will of the people. Much as it failed in 2000, and as gerrymandered congressional districts and the like have previously failed to reflect the will of the people.

[drwho1]

As far as Democrats winning national and mid-term elections, its about increasing the African American turnout.  They stayed home during the midterms and when Obama was missing from the ticket.  Their turnout in swing states would have flipped the state votes by at least 5% to the democrats.  If the democrats want to win in 2020, they will have to nominate a person, probably a Black senator like Booker, who can convince African American voters to turnout in Detroit, Milwakee, Ohio, and Philly.

[Devils30]

I think it's entirely possible Obama plays the role that Nixon did for Reagan's coalition. A 2020 Democratic sweep would set that up.